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28-05-2014, 08:51 PM
#3041
Member
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28-05-2014, 09:09 PM
#3042
Originally Posted by Wolf
What amount of shares are people using for EPS 2014? I'm using 458,455,000 full amount of shares not sure what the weighted average is.
This is my calculation:
Event |
Date |
Days |
Shares |
Shares used for calc |
Opening |
01/07/2013 |
0 |
388704000 |
388,704,000 |
div resinvest |
04/10/2013 |
95 |
3850604 |
2,848,392 |
Partial fund |
19/02/2014 |
233 |
17045455 |
6,164,384 |
SPP |
25/03/2014 |
267 |
5854940 |
1,572,011 |
more HER |
01/04/2014 |
274 |
43000000 |
10,720,548 |
DRP |
04/04/2014 |
277 |
4811618 |
1,160,061 |
|
|
|
|
411,169,396 |
No advice here. Just banter. DYOR
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28-05-2014, 09:16 PM
#3043
Originally Posted by Wolf
At the current price with my estimates taken from guidance
35m for FY2014 would give HNZ eps of 7.6c putting it on a 2014 PE of 11.7
43m for FY2015 would give HNZ eps of 9.4c putting it on a 2015 PE of 9.5
With over 20% eps growth forecast i see HNZ as a growth stock warranting a fairly higher PE is there any broker reports/ anyone done some research on forecast into 2016 and beyond?
Using NZ First Capital Estimates:
Year |
NPAT |
eps |
31/6/2014 |
35200 |
0.086 |
31/6/2015 |
41100 |
0.089 |
No advice here. Just banter. DYOR
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28-05-2014, 09:31 PM
#3044
The old weighted average trick eh
Helps make things look better this year and next year... and probably help the eps accretive bit come true
Hey noodles one question .... when they come to pay out the next divie bet you they don't use the weighted average number
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28-05-2014, 09:49 PM
#3045
Originally Posted by winner69
The old weighted average trick eh
Helps make things look better this year and next year... and probably help the eps accretive bit come true
Hey noodles one question .... when they come to pay out the next divie bet you they don't use the weighted average number
I think the acquisition was marginally eps accretive. Even if there is no uplift in eps, at least HER is another avenue for loan growth. Growth doesn't seem to be evident in other parts of the business.
No advice here. Just banter. DYOR
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28-05-2014, 09:55 PM
#3046
The past is histroy
The current number of shares on issue is 463,266,592 [NZX.COM]
I never bother with the weighted average stuff. Going forward the quantity of shares will not [generally] be less than the current count.
For me it is:
1/ Anything to worry about in the current accounts ?
2/ What is expected next year ?
I believe the current share price undervalues the company and thus it has more upside than downside potential.
Best Wishes
Paper Tiger
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28-05-2014, 09:57 PM
#3047
Originally Posted by noodles
Using NZ First Capital Estimates:
Year |
NPAT |
eps |
31/6/2014 |
35200 |
0.086 |
31/6/2015 |
41100 |
0.089 |
Forbar research 3/4/2014
2014 year NPAT 35.8 mil ...eps 0.080
2015 year NPAT 45.2 mil...eps 0.099
they therefore expect eps growth of 12.5% from 2014 to 2015.
My own view is closer to NZ First Capital estimates.
Growth will be driven by Sentinel and any further acquisitions.
I look forward to management's guidance of future earnings.
Recently UDC announced a good result,so I am sure Heartland will do so as well.
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29-05-2014, 08:29 AM
#3048
Originally Posted by belgarion
With consumer/business confidence picking up there will be some growth ...
When you talk about growth, are you talk g about loan book size,, the margin they earn or both.
With the better credit rating, their cost of funds should reduce, giving them revenue growth (actually reduced expenses or net interest revenue), regardless of loan book growth. Does that sound right?
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29-05-2014, 08:42 AM
#3049
Originally Posted by Harvey Specter
When you talk about growth, are you talk g about loan book size,, the margin they earn or both.
With the better credit rating, their cost of funds should reduce, giving them revenue growth (actually reduced expenses or net interest revenue), regardless of loan book growth. Does that sound right?
For all we know hey may reduce lending rates as well.
Maintain margin but be me more competitive?
I have no idea
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29-05-2014, 09:10 AM
#3050
Originally Posted by Harvey Specter
When you talk about growth, are you talk g about loan book size,, the margin they earn or both.
With the better credit rating, their cost of funds should reduce, giving them revenue growth (actually reduced expenses or net interest revenue), regardless of loan book growth. Does that sound right?
For me growth is earnings per share growth.
Heartland have been moving from low margin business [home loans] to higher margin loans [such as seasonal rural lending].
I agree the better credit rating will benefit them,however I think they have had access to cheaper funding since gaining the banking licence.
I am waiting for further guidance from the company,as there are too many variables for me to figure out growth.Those variables include rural lending [I have no idea how that is going,although I suspect with beef and sheep farmers also doing well Heartland will be doing well].Motor vehicles should be doing well with car sales at record levels.Business finance,I am not sure of. The big surprise could come from Sentinel,with pent up demand driving big growth.
I am inclined to look past the numbers,ie they are doing everything they said they would.The business is in great shape.This was confirmed by the S&P credit upgrade.I am sure Heartland will be working towards another upgrade.They talked at the last agm about acquisitions.I thought they may do one of about $25mil to $30mil from cash on hand,so I was over the moon with the Sentinel acquisition.As with most well run companies, the surprises tend to be on the upside.
Last edited by percy; 29-05-2014 at 10:27 AM.
Reason: spelling
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