HGH - Heartland Group Holdings

**percy** · 25-08-2014, 01:58 PM

Originally Posted by Roger

My view in a forward PE of about 12 is fair and reasonable for a small bank. I take your point about the debate about EPS growth, (weighted average v end of year shares on issue). I think as the market becomes more comfortable with HNZ's story some modest PE expansion isn't out of the question.

The increasing fully imputated dividend should also be taken into account espically when comparing HNZ with Aussie banks.
Say 7 cents pa ? Nett yield at 95cents 7.36% Tasty.!!!

**Beagle** · 25-08-2014, 02:04 PM

Yes Percy, thanks for reminding us about the value of the N.Z. imputation credits v our inability to claim franking credits from Australian banks a point that shouldn't be overlooked by any astute investor.

**noodles** · 25-08-2014, 02:13 PM

Attachment 6173

Originally Posted by Roger

Thanks...so looking forward we're on a 2015 PE of 10.12 based on mid point of forecasted profit. In my view the current historical PE is spot on for a small bank and with forecasted earnings growth of 20% this year this leaves room for circa 20% SP appreciation over the year ahead as they continue to meet their target growth. Add in say 7 cps divvy fully imputed for the yeah ahead and you're looking at a circa gross 30% return for holders in the coming year

Roger, As much as I would like to see 20% gain this year, I don't think it is going to happen unless we get some corporate action such as a buyback or an acquisition. For the last 18 months, the ceiling on the share price has been the broker targets (see image). I'd expect this to stay the same and I wouldn't expect broker targets to change much as a result of this result.

**Beagle** · 25-08-2014, 02:41 PM

Originally Posted by noodles

Attachment 6173

Roger, As much as I would like to see 20% gain this year, I don't think it is going to happen unless we get some corporate action such as a buyback or an acquisition. For the last 18 months, the ceiling on the share price has been the broker targets (see image). I'd expect this to stay the same and I wouldn't expect broker targets to change much as a result of this result.

I respect your opinion but in my experience it takes quite some time for a new acquisition to get traction and I expect better weighted average EPS growth in 2016. SP seems fair and reasonable to me where it is for now. Good hold in my opinion.

**Balance** · 25-08-2014, 02:59 PM

Originally Posted by Balance

Buffett, the most well-known value investor of all time, is usually amazed when stock prices fall so low: "When hamburgers go down in price, we sing the 'Hallelujah' chorus in the Buffett household. When hamburgers go up, we weep. For most people, it's the same way with everything in life they will be buying -- except stocks. When stocks go down and you can get more for your money, people don't like them anymore."

NTA of HNZ is 85 cents per share.

Sp is 54 cents, courtesy of George Kerr - a very nice discount of 36% or potential upside of 57%.

Very satisfying to make big gains out of George Kerr.

All so predictable?

http://www.sharetrader.co.nz/showthr...8HNZ%29/page35

**percy** · 25-08-2014, 03:27 PM

Originally Posted by Balance

Very satisfying to make big gains out of George Kerr.

All so predictable?

http://www.sharetrader.co.nz/showthr...8HNZ%29/page35

Your history on this thread has been outstanding.
Sensible ,right on the money posts.
thank you.

**Balance** · 25-08-2014, 05:17 PM

Originally Posted by percy

Your history on this thread has been outstanding.
Sensible ,right on the money posts.
thank you.

Thanks, Percy.

It is poetic justice that Georgie Porgie was forced to sell down PGC and his shares in HNZ - resulting in the temporary sp dip at that time and the great buying opportunity.

Well, time to head home.

Cheers!