HGH - Heartland Group Holdings

[Snow Leopard]

.... Part of the reason for that is that in FY2013, the minimum capital requirement was 12% of outstanding loans. In FY2014 that requirement went up to 14.5%. Yet even if you remove that hurdle height change, the margin is still smaller. So this needs watching....

I think you will find that the 'minimum capital requirement' (for the Bank) remains at 12%.

It is also not appropriate to apply it to HNZ as a whole as you are doing here.

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

[winner69]

Wonder if you will ever use the Buffett phase "Forever is a good holding period." ?????????????????????????????

But I also have this etched in my memory, Another Buffett

Don't be fooled by that Cinderella feeling you get from great returns

[percy]

But I also have this etched in my memory, Another Buffett

Don't be fooled by that Cinderella feeling you get from great returns

His Bank of America and Wells Fargo investments must have come after he said that.!!

[Onion]

If anyone in Auckland wants to hit the bid at 94 and sell, please PM me. I have off market transfer forms and am happy to save both of us the brokerage.

560,993 gone through at 94 cents -- is that you filling your boots Roger?

[Beagle]

560,993 gone through at 94 cents -- is that you filling your boots Roger?

LOL I wish it was. I couldn't get a fill and am too tight arse to pay 95 at this stage.

[Snoopy]

I will correct the graph as per your suggestion when I get time. Thanks for that. But I don't think the essential message of the graph will be affected.

Hi again Harvey. I have reviewed my own 'doubtful debt' calculation (the size of the orange bar) and am pleased to report I got it right first time after all. So no need to change the graph.

My excuse? I had been fiddling with the presentation of my graph, off and on, for a few days. By the time I had decided what information to present and in what form I had forgotten some of the details of how I calculated the information in the first place! The balance sheet equity has the impaired assets already removed. And to match that I did the same with my own patented 'snoopshot' on doubtful debts. Thanks for making me look at it again though, to remind me of what I had actually done!

SNOOPY

[Snoopy]

I sense a monster BUY order about to hit the market with SNOOPY's name on it .

You sense wrongly, for the moment anyway. I buy something normally for a bundle of reasons of which one favourable statistic is just one element.

SNOOPY

[Snoopy]

I think you will find that the 'minimum capital requirement' (for the Bank) remains at 12%.

This 'minimum capital requirement' has been discussed on this thread before. See post 2990, the interest.co.nz reference quoted by Captain Dan. You are correct PT, the 'minimum capital requirement' (for the Bank) remains at 12%.

"Since January 1 this year banks also require a buffer ratio for common equity tier one capital of at least 2.5%. This buffer ratio is described by the Reserve Bank as a counter-cyclical capital buffer that can be applied in times of excessive credit growth. It's part of the Reserve Bank's version of the global Basel III bank capital adequacy standards, which have been endorsed by the G20. Heartland isn't required to maintain this buffer."

My 14.5% equated to 12% + 2.5% (the buffer). I now see that Heartland has an exemption regarding this buffer. I will correct my chart accordingly. But I don't think that correction is material enough to affect my conclusions.

It is also not appropriate to apply it to HNZ as a whole as you are doing here.

If you have a better way to do things I will implement it. As it stands, just using the HNZ group figures as I have done looks to me as though it is the best I can do.

SNOOPY

[Snoopy]

Below is a chart HNZ proud off. Interest margin being one of the key drivers of net operating income

Looks good eh. All from lower cost of funds and working towards a more optimum lending mix

Question then - can we assume that FY15 will be higher then the 4.44% reported in FY14? and if yes by how much?

Winner I can't help but notice (note 28) that the deposits held by the group have reduced during the year from $1,838.619m to $1,736.751m, a 5% reduction. There was clearly no pressure during the year to keep depositors reinvesting, so no pressure to offer really good interest rates. By contrast a lot of bank borrowing, relating to the HER loans acquisition is now on the balance sheet out of Australia, probably at relatively low rates in New Zealand terms. It might be that which has contributed to the increasing net interest margin. There are no facilities to materially increase that borrowing. So I would guess net interest margin may flatten out, or even decline into FY2015.

SNOOPY

[Snoopy]

Equity June 14 is $450m

ROE improving they say (9.7% in last quarter) and we have aspirations to improve it (something a lot higher)

Guidance at top end end for FY15 is $45m NPAT - hey that's 10% ROE - on opening equity - you would hope that equity would increase (from DRP and retained earnings) so likely figure less than 10% ROE.

Not good

<snip>

Now they trying to tell us that FY15 will be up between $6m to $9m, after acquiring $700m odd of business which is going to be eps accretive and improve ROE

Doesn't seem right does it that $42m to $45m guidance

Redid my numbers - still reckon something closer to $50m has to classed as respectable.

Winner, the equity transferred to get the HER business was $86.140m (note 40). Assuming an ROE of 10% that equates to an after tax profit increment of $8.614m.

The business was acquired on 1st April, so one quarter of that incremental gain is already in this years profit figure. So teh three quarters Heartland can expect in FY2015 amounts to

0.75 x $8.614 = $6.5m

On my normalised profit of $41m for FY2014 this means a profit of $47.5m for FY2015. So maybe a reduction in the interest margin explains the difference?

SNOOPY