HGH - Heartland Group Holdings

[Beagle]

Have to agree. The company promises just another reasonable year and the financial analysts seem to generally agree with the companies predictions. Nice little earner, but nothing outrageous.

Its just some "bulls" around this thread who might create false expectations (particularly for Newbies) ...

The shares behind most (or all? - just a question of time) of the highly hyped sharetrader threads have a tendency to first rocket up and than crash down again. Just have a look at XRO, RAK, PEB, SUM, GEN, ... (in no particular order). Even the beloved RYM is now cheaper than it used to be a year ago.

Some of the above mentioned shares represent really good companies and nothing wrong in buying them at the right price (and I see HNZ as one of these companies). It is just that too much hype always drives the SP up a bit too high ... and as we all know: "what goes up, must come down again".

Discl: used to hold most of the above shares at some stage ... and sold some of them with a nice profit and others with a not so nice loss.

Fair comment to some extent mate but the simple use of a filter that I won't buy a stock on a forward PE of more than 20 or on no PE would save a lot of people a lot of grief.
Further, based on the mid point of the company's own forecast we are talking about a forward PE of only 11.25, hardly what anyone could call hyped-up.

[winner69]

Have to agree. The company promises just another reasonable year and the financial analysts seem to generally agree with the companies predictions. Nice little earner, but nothing outrageous.

Its just some "bulls" around this thread who might create false expectations (particularly for Newbies) ...

.

Oh come on now BP

I would say that the 'bulls' on this thread have done better research and have come up with more "realistic expectations" than your beloved 'financial analysts' (assuming you sort of mean consensus forecasts)

These "bulls" are not setting "false expectation". The expectations are all based on listening carefully to what the company says and making reasonable assumptions as to where things will end up for the year. That is $49m to $50m

At least these "bulls" aren't under the thumb of the company like the "financial analysts" are

[Beagle]

Interesting debate. I wonder how many, (if any), broker analysts have reviewed their valuation models for the fact that the company made $11m in the first quarter as announced at the ASM ?

[BlackPeter]

Oh come on now BP

I would say that the 'bulls' on this thread have done better research and have come up with more "realistic expectations" than your beloved 'financial analysts' (assuming you sort of mean consensus forecasts)

These "bulls" are not setting "false expectation". The expectations are all based on listening carefully to what the company says and making reasonable assumptions as to where things will end up for the year. That is $49m to $50m

At least these "bulls" aren't under the thumb of the company like the "financial analysts" are

Hi winner,

no need to start a war ... I am (at current) holding no shares in HNZ and have neither an interest in talking the shares up nor down ....

As said before - I think HNZ is a good company and I have to agree with Roger that the forward PE looks still quite good (for a bank, and compared with many other shares currently around). Might be as well sustainable, i.e. nothing wrong in buying their shares, and delivering likely as well long term a better return than their fixed rate bonds ...

I was just reacting to the graph and the derived statements around "heading towards $1.40". Linear extrapolation is in my experience not always the best way to model future share growth.

However - the market is free to do whatever it want's, and (at least short term) it rarely reacts rational. So - yes, the SP might be in a year around $1.40, but then, it might as well be around where it is today. I don't know where the SP peak will be, but I am sure, there will be one ... and I don't think it will take decades (though it might be years) until we reach it.

[winner69]

Interesting debate. I wonder how many, (if any), broker analysts have reviewed their valuation models for the fact that the company made $11m in the first quarter as announced at the ASM ?

If they haven't one needs to wonder why

[dingoNZ]

If they haven't one needs to wonder why

Its probably not on the height of the priority for analysts to be honest, they will likely cover it in due course

[winner69]

BlackPete - no war

Maybe I just misunderstood what you were getting at

However your comments are very interesting, esp as it seems that you see HNZ has a good company and a good earner but maybe not that spectacular. A feeling that is reinforced by what you see financial analysts valuing HNZ at. (Maybe not buts that how I read your posts and do chastise me if completely wrong)

If correct than HNZ has not done its job properly in itself to analysts and the market in general. My feeling is that they don't really want to. That's disappointing.

And by the way BP the $1.40 is not just a continuation of that line on the chart - it's the same $1.40 I have mentioned before. It's based on npat of $49m in FY15 (using a strong financial analysis approach) and applying some expectations for how the market could value HNZ in November 2015.

It'll get there, I'm sure of that.

Enjoy your challenging posts

[Beagle]

Suppose we speculate and suggest HNZ is very conservative with their forecast profit and they do make $49m for 2015. So we get $49m over say 470m shares with shares issued under DRP, (currently just under 467m shares = EPS 10.42 cps and seeing as its never traded on a PE above 12 lets stick with that which gives us $1.25 by next year's ASM, (12 x .1042). If we take the mid point of the official forecast $43.5 / 470m = 9.25 cps and the same PE we get $1.11.
I think they'll need an EPS accretive acquisition, (which certainly is not out of the question), to get to $1.40. On top of that there's about 7 cps fully imputed dividends to look forward too.
In the unlikely event that the SP stays where it currently is, (very unlikely in my opinion given the growth of the company), shareholders get about a 9% gross divvy yield which is hardly what you'd call a tragic outcome.

[winner69]

Suppose we speculate and suggest HNZ is very conservative with their forecast profit and they do make $49m for 2015. So we get $49m over say 470m shares with shares issued under DRP, (currently just under 467m shares = EPS 10.42 cps and seeing as its never traded on a PE above 12 lets stick with that which gives us $1.25 by next year's ASM, (12 x .1042). If we take the mid point of the official forecast $43.5 / 470m = 9.25 cps and the same PE we get $1.11.
I think they'll need an EPS accretive acquisition, (which certainly is not out of the question), to get to $1.40. On top of that there's about 7 cps fully imputed dividends to look forward too.
In the unlikely event that the SP stays where it currently is, (very unlikely in my opinion given the growth of the company), shareholders get about a 9% gross divvy yield which is hardly what you'd call a tragic outcome.

But come next years ASM booze up the market will be using FY16 guidance/expectations won't they?

So 10.42 plus say 10% is 11.5 cents times your 12 is $1.32 plus the eps accretive acquisition is at least $1.40

[winner69]

Westpac s Gail Kelly resigned yesterday ....maybe HNZ should get her a a director as Percy suggested higher day

Gail was pretty well paid so had a look at Jeffs remuneration

A 16% increase last year not to be coughed at, well done Jeff

No wonder the gap between the well off and the workers is increasing ....workers maybe got 3% increase if they were lucky.