But come next years ASM booze up the market will be using FY16 guidance/expectations won't they?
So 10.42 plus say 10% is 11.5 cents times your 12 is $1.32 plus the eps accretive acquisition is at least $1.40
Yes I believe the market is forward looking so much will depend upon official 2016 guidance. If we see circa $50m this year for 10.4 cps and they're guiding 12 cents eps for 2016 which whilst a speculative thought at this stage I believe its quite possible then they better have even more good wine on hand next year at the ASM 12 x 12 =
I was looking into Heartland and was hoping someone more experienced could help me understand Heartlands 2015 Forecast.
I'm a beginner at reading annual reports and am thoroughly lost.
NPAT forecast of $42m - $45m
• Growth in Receivables in 2015
– Consumer: 5 - 10% (1st Quarter 2015 +$16m, 2% annualised 10%)
– Business: some modest growth (1st Quarter 2015 +$25m, 4% annualised 15%)
– Rural: some modest growth (1st Quarter 2015 +$26m, 6% annualised 26%)
– HER: turned the corner (1st Quarter 2015 +$16m, 2% annualised 9% or excluding fx gains -$2m; New Zealand +$1m, Australian -$3m)
– Retail: run off of residential mortgages continues in line with strategy
– Property: realisations of $10m - $20m (1st Quarter 2015 -$4m, -9% annualised -36%)
• NOI improvement through product switching and the last of lower COF filtering through
1. What are receivables and Is this in relation to segment cash flow statement or segment income statement?
2. For consumer would the +25m, 2% growth be for the first quarter and 10% the annual compounded growth if this continued throughout the other quarters?
3. I couldn't find HER in the segment analysis for 2014, is this coming into effect 2015 or already included somewhere?
4. For Retail does this mean that low margin mortgages will decrease, increasing margins in line with strategy?
I find this odd as in the segment analysis retail and consumer are included together.
5. I don't understand the property realizations. Will this be a loss or gain on the income statement?
6. What does "lower COF filtering through" mean?
I'll leave it at that for now, i'm trying to get a better understanding of the company and what its worth.
Stoked with their progress so far and the guidance does seem extremely conservative to me considering growth and the assumption of benign impairments, which i assume means favorable/low impairments?
Think of Receivables (in the accounts as Finance Receivables) as their loan book, ie how much they have lent out.
That slide is not easy to read. To get the gist add first growth values quoted - $16m + $25m + $26m + $16m which gives increase in receivables in Q1 of $83m. Annualised this and you get $332m. You could play around with the full %ages they give but it'll come to about this)
Now HNZ make a Net Interest Margin on these receivables. Last year this was 4.4% so one would expect that the growth in receivables would bring in ~$15m extra net interest income (part of NOI line in. Their accounts)
The other growth things they mention I take it as status quo with no great net impact on profit. Understand the major things first.
Re HER, in most presentations etc the numbers are included under Consumer.
The COF bit is about getting cheaper money because they are now a bank. That has settled down to a ongoing normal sort of level. I do read that sentence as possible margin improvement, ie the 4.4% will get better.
The other thing you should look at is the expense base. They are doing heaps more with only a little more - income going up faster than expenses = more profit.
Put all that together and you get to that $50m Roger and I go on about.
Now you totally confused eh. Look at their simplified profit statement in that presentation and think it through taking into account the above comments
What assumptions do you use to arrive at $50m?
I'm not to sure on my NOI margin assumption.
I suppose Sales and Admin expenses as a % may continue to decrease.
How do you deal with/ allow for Impaired asset expense and decrease in fair value?
Wolf - I took the interest margin of 4.44%‰ from the preso with full year results
Impressive looking chart eh. All they have recently said and shown in presentations suggest it going to get better, although the increase probably wont be as great as the last few years
But even so just another 0.1% point increase is another $3m in NOI
Wasn't net interest margin in the last quarter of 2014 very close to 5% as they start to roll out their HER product ? See Reserve bank report some time back on this thread on interest margins between the banks. This is one of the key issues in regard to understanding the future profitability of this company.
Wasn't net interest margin in the last quarter of 2014 very close to 5% as they start to roll out their HER product ? See Reserve bank report some time back on this thread on interest margins between the banks. This is one of the key issues in regard to understanding the future profitability of this company.
You onto it mate. Margin sure to rise in FY15 and each 0.1% point increase is about ~$3m
Still got a lot more to learn and look at.
Sold out after div at $1 as it made up pretty much my whole portfolio lol and i was worried about macro conditions/ saw other opportunities.
Now back in at a higher price
Still got a lot more to learn and look at.
Sold out after div at $1 as it made up pretty much my whole portfolio lol and i was worried about macro conditions/ saw other opportunities.
Now back in at a higher price
Wolf page 19 2014 annual report, profit for 2014 $36,039,000 but this was after an impaired expense of $5,895,000.(note 12)
As I understand it this impaired expense is partly an estimate of the likely loss HNZ will make on their over due loans.
If property prices go up then the estimated loses on those loans might be less, in which case the impairment asset expense in the 2014 year was to high.
If this is the case (and we will only know that when the properties are sold) the difference will add a little to the profit in future year(s).
And from the AGM I had the impression this is more likely than not.
Originally Posted by winner69
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