HGH - Heartland Group Holdings

[winner69]

Yes exactly right,it is eps accretive acquisitions that add to ROE that are worthwhile.
A company with a PE of 10 buying a company with a PE of 5 works well.
HNZ have a record of successful acquisitions.

Hope the next acquisition is on a lower PE than the Seniors one was eh percy

[bunter]

Hey Bunter for your model how do you determine value and what is long term for you?

Work out the present day value of the next 10 years' estimated dividends.
Divide this by current share price.

50% = fairly valued, *relative to money in the bank at 5%*.

50% means the share half pays for itself after 10 years. It's an arbitrary figure.

In long term interest rates change significantly, the system adjusts the valuation.

Long term = 10 years.

The model has faults.

[iceman]

Current asking price 145 !

[pierre]

121 now. Always someone to spoil the party! Still, great to see the steady upwards trend.

[winner69]

Roger, at this rate Jeff will need to come clean won't he

Be almighty share price collapse if he sticks with his $42m story

[Beagle]

Roger, at this rate Jeff will need to come clean won't he

Be almighty share price collapse if he sticks with his $42m story

Banks are renowned for being conservative mate. Official guidance of $42 - $45m may get upgraded when they announce their half year results next month or in my view there's almost an equal chance of them simply reiterating exisiting guidance with the usual sort of comment that we are well positioned to meet ...

Not worried either way, good things take time. Go onto the Mainland cheese website and you'll see that a good vintage cheese takes 24 months to mature. Just imagine how tasty the SP will be 24 months from now. Based on mid point of official forecast = circa 9.3 cps which would have the stock on a PE of 13 which isn't expensive so there's no reason for the SP to make any untoward correction unless the result next month significantly under-shoots market expectations which I rate as an extremely unlikely possibility.
I think there's every reason to be confident. Onwards and upwards !! HNZ remains a very cheap growth stock.

[gv1]

HNZ remains a very cheap growth stock.[/QUOTE]

Me thinks too..loaded as well past few days.

[Snow Leopard]

Well thank you guys for your blatant ramping .


Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

[percy]

Hope the next acquisition is on a lower PE than the Seniors one was eh percy

Well I was pleased they brought the REL business.I think it is a great fit for Heartland.Better margins than normal home loans,and a sector that I see has strong growth prospects with NZ's aging property owning population.Buying the established business saved them years of trying to build a business from scratch.

[Beagle]

Well thank you guys for your blatant ramping .


Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

But wait there's more LOL. Was it really so silly for me to talk about $2+ on the weekend ?

Lets value the stock using the extremely well regarded Benjamin Graham formula of V = EPS x (8.5 + 2g)
According to Reuters http://www.reuters.com/finance/stock...?symbol=HNZ.NZ - Consensus analysts forecasted 2015 EPS is 9.95 cps, consensus long term growth is 15%, (note historical growth last couple of years has been much higher) and using those numbers we get 9.95 x 38.5 = $3.83 !!
Like I said, HNZ is a very cheap growth stock. Surely this new valuation gets me the position of Chairman of the rampersrus club