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  1. #9001
    CEO Butch Analytics Ltd winner69's Avatar
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    I think you guys are being pretty miserable and unfair to Snoops - please treat him with a more civility and respect please.
    “Just consider that maybe the probability of you being wrong is higher than you think.”

  2. #9002
    Reincarnated Panthera Snow Leopard's Avatar
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    Exclamation Let 's buy something tomorrow

    Not only do I get 3,317 shiny new shares today
    I also have my $10,157.18 refund sitting in the account this evening.

    At $1.62 HBL is overpriced

    Best Wishes
    Paper Tiger
    om mani peme hum

  3. #9003
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    Overpriced why? I just bought some more today to round up to nearest 5000

  4. #9004
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    Nobody could have any argument with the speed with which the shares were issued or the speed of the refund, sterling effort by Link share registry.
    No butts, hold no mutts, (unless they're the furry variety).

  5. #9005
    percy
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    Quote Originally Posted by Roger View Post
    Nobody could have any argument with the speed with which the shares were issued or the speed of the refund, sterling effort by Link share registry.
    Agreed........................

  6. #9006
    Reincarnated Panthera Snow Leopard's Avatar
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    Wink The psychological consequences of the decimal numerical system

    Quote Originally Posted by tim23 View Post
    Overpriced why? I just bought some more today to round up to nearest 5000
    I know of only one valuation that is higher than the current share price but the average is less.
    My attempt is also less than the current SP and that is the most important one for me.

    So, why bother to round up the number of shares you own?

    Best Wishes
    Paper Tiger
    om mani peme hum

  7. #9007
    ShareTrader Legend Beagle's Avatar
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    Default Asleep by the Food Bowl

    http://www.4-traders.com/HEARTLAND-B...518/consensus/

    HBL trades cum a 3.5 cent interim dividend. Stock's theoretical ex divvy price is therefore $1.58.5 and analysts average valuation is $1.58.

    Trades on FY18 forward PE of 12.6. Seems fair value and a fair hold to me. Wake me up if it gets seriously overvalued or undervalued by.... I dunno, lets say 20%
    No butts, hold no mutts, (unless they're the furry variety).

  8. #9008
    Advanced Member King1212's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by winner69 View Post
    I think you guys are being pretty miserable and unfair to Snoops - please treat him with a more civility and respect please.
    His own personal opinions that lose his respect

  9. #9009
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    Quote Originally Posted by winner69 View Post
    I think you guys are being pretty miserable and unfair to Snoops - please treat him with a more civility and respect please.
    Agree 100%..

  10. #9010
    Membaa
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    Quote Originally Posted by winner69 View Post
    I think you guys are being pretty miserable and unfair to Snoops - please treat him with a more civility and respect please.
    I agree as well, miserable and unfair. 👎🏻

  11. #9011
    Alley Cat Brain's Avatar
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    I agree also. I for one appreciate the effort that Snoops puts in his posts and his willingness to share his analysis. I fear that a pack mentality is developing here. Share trader would be the worse off without his input.

  12. #9012
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    [QUOTE=Paper Tiger;659275]Not only do I get 3,317 shiny new shares today
    I also have my $10,157.18 refund sitting in the account this evening.

    That was quick...haven't received mine yet

  13. #9013
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    Quote Originally Posted by percy View Post
    Sounds to me you are all over the place.
    Quote Originally Posted by JeremyALD View Post
    LOL 20% either way of 'fair value' is giving yourself a lot of leeway Snoopy.
    It might be helpful if some people put the same amount of energy they do into their 'enthusiasm' into understanding what the statistical term 'average' means. The basic idea is that you take a set of values that are 'all over the place' and come up with a number somewhere in the middle. A business cycle average is not a prediction of where the share price is headed in the short term. A business cycle average is not even a predictive hint about what you might do in every particular situation.

    I don't think it is anything profound to say that if a share price is going up then the chances are that, in the short term, it will continue to go up. I think it is equally unprofound to suggest that eventually the upward trend will come to an end. If you believe in the concept of a business cycle, (and for Heartland at least I accept there are those that don't and think that these people believe Heartland share price will continue to go up indefinitely), then how can you, as an investor, best use the concept of 'average fair valuation'? I would suggest that 'on average' shareholders should be looking to reduce their HBL position with the share price sits above 'business cycle fair value' and increase their position when the share price sits below 'business cycle fair value'. Notwithstanding the suggestion that when it comes to share price valuations caused as a result of the recent capital raising it might pay, in the short term at least, to do the opposite.

    SNOOPY
    Last edited by Snoopy; 16-03-2017 at 10:01 AM.
    Industry shorthand sees BNZ employees still called 'bankers' but ANZ employees now called 'anchors'. Westpac has opted out of banking industry shorthand...

  14. #9014
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    Quote Originally Posted by percy View Post
    So lets lot at how 20% each way becomes 50%.
    $1,00 share.Snoopy valuation plus or minus 20%.Plus 20% = $1.20.Minus 20% = 80cents.
    I note $1.20 is 50% higher than 80 cents.
    Your maths looks spot on to me Percy. Now what point are you trying to make?

    SNOOPY
    Industry shorthand sees BNZ employees still called 'bankers' but ANZ employees now called 'anchors'. Westpac has opted out of banking industry shorthand...

  15. #9015
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    Snoopy I think the market overall is fully valued. Yes you could make the case that the current FY17 PE is a little higher than average but FY18's forecast PE of 12.5 is about right in my view for this stock.
    Maybe people are simply happy to wait for a year for earnings growth to return the PE to its average range for this share and in the meantime enjoy a 7.5% gross dividend yield.
    If all the stock did was flat line for a year and people enjoyed the pretty decent dividend yield I can't seer any harm in that strategy and probably as good as any other in a fully priced market.
    Yes people will probably only get average returns holding but no harm in that mate.
    No butts, hold no mutts, (unless they're the furry variety).

  16. #9016
    percy
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    Quote Originally Posted by Snoopy View Post
    Can I translate this into words that everyone can understand?

    The party is over.

    Heartland: Sell, sell, sell!

    SNOOPY
    Post # 8439...11-01-2017
    Share price closed at $1.51 on that day.
    Today the share price is $1.61 after a very successful SPP.
    Sorry but I find it hard to respect posters whose research is poor,missing the point,misguided,often full of mistakes, and ends up being just wrong.

    HBL closed at $1.64 on 16/03/2017
    Last edited by percy; 17-03-2017 at 06:15 AM.

  17. #9017
    Trying to get outta here
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    Quote Originally Posted by percy View Post
    Post # 8439...11-01-2017
    Share price closed at $1.51 on that day.
    Today the share price is $1.61 after a very successful SPP.
    No money to be made here or over at A2, according to Snoopy, yeah right.

  18. #9018
    CEO Butch Analytics Ltd winner69's Avatar
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    Is HBL over valued / undervalued / about right - I have no idea

    What I do know is that currently HBL has never been so highly rated by the market as it is at the moment.

    Chart is shareprice compared to Book Value. Currently Price/Book multiple is about 1.55. The Price/Book multiple is one of the preferred valuation methids used by analysts (Craigs for one seem to like it). The more bue showing the more highly rated HBL is
    Attached Images Attached Images
    Last edited by winner69; 16-03-2017 at 01:54 PM.
    “Just consider that maybe the probability of you being wrong is higher than you think.”

  19. #9019
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    At $1.62 I'm starting to feel Heartland is fully valued. Top end of NPAT for FY17 is $60m which is a PE of 13.8. Some earnings growth in FY18, say 6%, gets that PE back to 13.0. I'm not saying things will turn sour but they have enjoyed several fairly benign years economically and theyve been managed well but the current price has no margin for an economic slowdown if it were to occur i.e. risk adjusted across the cycle its starting to feel a bit overdone.

    I'm not selling but I am watching more closely as Heartland is no longer cheap like it was a couple of years ago....

  20. #9020
    percy
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    Quote Originally Posted by winner69 View Post
    Is HBL over valued / undervalued / about right - I have no idea

    What I do know that currently HBL has never been so highly rated by the market as it is at the moment.

    Chart is shareprice compared to Book Value. Currently Price/Book is about 1.55. The Price/Book multiple is one of the preferred valuation methids used by analysts (Craigs for one seem to like it). The more bue showing the more highly rated HBL is
    HBL valuation.
    Current share price [$1.62] would be at the very top of my current valuation.
    The PE is high at 14.19,yet the yield is also high at 5.25% .
    I have been trying to understand the current strength of HBL's share price.
    I think the market is now comfortable that HBL has runs on the board.
    They are a success story,and this has seen the PE expand.
    They have [well] positioned themselves in the online digital delivery of product.This sector will enjoy huge growth.Far outgrowing banks with bricks and mortar, costly to run, branches.
    Should interest rates rise all banks do better.
    I also think the market appreciates the added security that HBL have, by reporting quarterly to the Reserve Bank of NZ.
    The speed they have used their excess capital,and have had to raise more, tells me they are enjoying a very high substainable growth rate.
    I note on the charts HBL have set an all time high.This is positive.I am not sure whether the support level on the chart is $1.60 or $1.55.
    Although I am overweighted with HBL I will only be selling a few, should I want some cash for another share.I have discontinued DRP.
    Last edited by percy; 16-03-2017 at 02:15 PM.

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