HGH - Heartland Group Holdings

[Longhaul]

I would have thought it would naturally revert closer to the 50 day MA, plus the HER business is not doing as well as expected.

I expect to see it settle around the $1.25 - $1.30 mark for the near future.

(Disc. sold out at $1.40 so it might just be wishful thinking on my part).

[Beagle]

$1.33 - what's happening?! Folks are getting an itchy finger?

Bit of profit taking, nothing untoward. I predicted a few weeks back at $1.32 gains from thereon would be harder to come by.
Stock is a good strong hold at current level. One of the major brokers has just upgraded 2016 EPS to 12 cps so attach a fair PE of say 13 to that and we should see $1.56 by year end, (more if there's another EPS accretive acquisition). Add in fully imputed divvies giving circa 8% gross yield and you can see why I think its a good core portfolio stock to own

[Bjauck]

I would have thought it would naturally revert closer to the 50 day MA, plus the HER business is not doing as well as expected.

I expect to see it settle around the $1.25 - $1.30 mark for the near future.

(Disc. sold out at $1.40 so it might just be wishful thinking on my part).

So Longhaul is not in it for the long haul.
I would have thought the HER is a slow burner with its business growing over years rather than months. A good fit with HNZ.
Unlike some other companies, where every announcement is expected to bring a second messiah

[percy]

Six of one,half dozen of the other.
Share price goes up, my capital goes up,
share price drops,I get more shares in the DRP.
Feel as though I am well positioned!!!!! LOL.

[Beagle]

Six of one,half dozen of the other.
Share price goes up, my capital goes up,
share price drops,I get more shares in the DRP.
Feel as though I am well positioned!!!!! LOL.

LOL that's a good one mate.

[iceman]

I've just watched a NZX/TV interview (8 minutes) with Jeff Greenslade on www.nzx.com
Interesting to watch for people that want to know what Heartland really is about.

[Master98]

Keep on sliding! This is brilliant. Chance to top up

Disc hold

sold at $1.4 just before this correction, now at a better position to find right entrance price.
oz bank average PE12.5, HNZ forecast FY2015 EPS10c, so sp could down to $1.25.

[Beagle]

At $1.30 cum the 3 cent fully imputed dividend due shortly people are really selling for a net consideration of $1.27 before brokerage costs.

It seems more than likely the company will easily achieve its 2015 official forecast profit of circa $47m after positing a strong gain of 41% in the first half to earn half that annual profit already.

So lets turn our attention to the prospects for 2016.

We know that momentum in the loan book regarding Harmoney has been very strong and other area's of lending apart from HER have also been strong.

First N.Z. capital have 2016 EPS at 11.2 cps and Craigs are at 12.0 cps.

Given that the company is not shy on issuing its full year forecast very early in any given year by the time of the ASM circa late October we'll know more but in the meantime if we lay aside personal thinking and just take the mid point of those analyst forecasts we're looking at 11.6 cps.

Now applying a reasonable multiple that the company has traded on in the past and that's well supported by its slower growing competitor's in Australia, (by my reckoning a fair and reasonable PE is 13), then 13 x 11.6 cents means that by late 2015 we should be seeing a SP of $1.51. In that time we'll also have received 4.0 - 4.5 cents final divvy so shareholders buying now at $1.30 are looking at fully imputed divvy's of about 7.5cps plus a theoretical SP gain or circa 20 cents, total shareholder return of approx. 27.5 cents on a $1.30 investment, ( 21% return). This from a business that's well capitalised with ongoing growth in future years.

Opportunity knocks for those looking to increase their portfolio allocation ?

[noodles]

At $1.30 cum the 3 cent fully imputed dividend due shortly people are really selling for a net consideration of $1.27 before brokerage costs.

It seems more than likely the company will easily achieve its 2015 official forecast profit of circa $47m after positing a strong gain of 41% in the first half to earn half that annual profit already.

So lets turn our attention to the prospects for 2016.

We know that momentum in the loan book regarding Harmoney has been very strong and other area's of lending apart from HER have also been strong.

First N.Z. capital have 2016 EPS at 11.2 cps and Craigs are at 12.0 cps.

Given that the company is not shy on issuing its full year forecast very early in any given year by the time of the ASM circa late October we'll know more but in the meantime if we lay aside personal thinking and just take the mid point of those analyst forecasts we're looking at 11.6 cps.

Now applying a reasonable multiple that the company has traded on in the past and that's well supported by its slower growing competitor's in Australia, (by my reckoning a fair and reasonable PE is 13), then 13 x 11.6 cents means that by late 2015 we should be seeing a SP of $1.51. In that time we'll also have received 4.0 - 4.5 cents final divvy so shareholders buying now at $1.30 are looking at fully imputed divvy's of about 7.5cps plus a theoretical SP gain or circa 20 cents, total shareholder return of approx. 27.5 cents on a $1.30 investment, ( 21% return). This from a business that's well capitalised with ongoing growth in future years.

Opportunity knocks for those looking to increase their portfolio allocation ?

Great post Roger. Exactly the way I think about the stock. I would add that there is upside from a eps accretive acquisition.

[RTM]

Yes....great post Roger...and I topped up yesterday at 131 based on my gut feel. Thanks for quantitating it ! Unfortunately approaching the limit of what I think it is prudent to hold !

Great post Roger. Exactly the way I think about the stock. I would add that there is upside from a eps accretive acquisition.