HGH - Heartland Group Holdings

[winner69]

Looking at the chart the rot for the SP started when they released their half year report with part of it in Maori, completely unnecessary and to the best of my knowledge a first for a listed company in N.Z.
Sent a signal that these guys are thinking well and truly a very long way outside the box, (completely unconventional thinking for a white male dominated board ?). Quite obviously Mr market is most unimpressed with this and some of their unconventional new lending.

Interesting view there Roger

If the lines on the chart reflect market sentiment then one could say that the direction of that chart to a large extent is a forward looking indicator of market players expectations of future performance,

The market has probably worked out that Heartland earnings aren't going to grow much over the next year or so. The company itself did tell us that after many years of every half year being better than the previous one this is now not happening (H2 being about the same as H1). They then might have adjusted their thinking and instead of seeing really strong growth going forward it is going to be a lot less subdued. Valuations fall from being rerated (a drop in PE of 2 is equivalent to 20 cents and there is lower eps expectations than previously)

The reasons for this being signalled by the charts you covered off Roger (except maybe the Maori bit) and no doubt several more things that apparently outweigh the positives.

What a load of the proverbial, can't be right can it.

I seez nothing as Schultz says

[winner69]

Xerof's gap......sounds like a John Wayne movie, winner......


118 looks about where the 200 ema lies. Should be support, not the cliff the lemmings jump off into Xerof's gap (but good management should have a stop a few cents on the other side of the canyon)

"lifes tough......it's even tougher if you're stupid" Marion Morrison

Very good Xerof. Been a few old westerns on Sky lately.

[winner69]

Looks like we're about 3 cents away from a breech of the 180 day MA...one more reduction in the dairy auction price.

Findata says only 2 cents away from todays close .... and 1 cent away from todays low. Bit of a headroom with the 200MA at 119 though.

Those 180MA and 200MA definitely flattening out aren't they - the long uptrend maybe come to an end

Just as well such things as squiggly lines don't mean wery much

[winner69]

Warren wants to buy into Aussie banks. Market all excited, besides bubbles we now have Buffetmania.

I have sent warren an email saying there is neat little bank in New Zealand. For US$500m he can have the whole bank.

I told him one of the perks of owning heartland would be the preferential rate he and any member of his family would get on a home equity release mortgage.

I also told him that contrary to popular belief speaking Maori is not a pre-requisite for doing the deal



http://www.smh.com.au/business/warre...16-ghpce8.html

[percy]

Thanks for posting the link.
I concur with Warren.!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! lol.

[percy]

Reverse mortgages.
Another very good article in this morning's The Press;page A13; Agony Aunt;Sell or borrow?
The same article is at www.stuff.co.nz and is headed;Agony Aunt;Reverse mortgages are a solution for the asset rich but money poor.
Again I concur.!

[percy]

Page A14 of this morning's The Press.
OWNING THE BANK BEATS JUST DEPOSITING....
No surprises there.!!
Mark Lister from Craigs pointed out you receive around 5% to 6% dividends from the Australian banks.It would be higher,but for the failure of successive NZ governments to arrange use of "franking dividends".Yeah right!!
So investors in Heartland do not have this problem, as they enjoy "fully imputed" dividends.
Huge difference between 5% to 6% fully taxable and 5% to 6% "fully imputed."
Sorry Mark,but again you score 4 out of 10.You must try harder,You have let yourself and Craigs down!

[winner69]

The story Percy referred to
http://www.stuff.co.nz/business/mone...or-a-lender-be

Points in that article interesting.

Nobody's answered that question yet ---- what right do shareholders have to demand returns on equity >10% when the banks only offer depositors (lenders) 3%-4% (a return not commensurate with risk taken)

[percy]

The story Percy referred to
http://www.stuff.co.nz/business/mone...or-a-lender-be

Points in that article interesting.

Nobody's answered that question yet ---- what right do shareholders have to demand returns on equity >10% when the banks only offer depositors (lenders) 3%-4% (a return not commensurate with risk taken)

As any business they have the right to ensure the business is profitable.A profitable business offers staff,investors,suppliers safety.It has the capacity to pay staff,suppliers,investors,and taxes on time.
Margins in any business can vary from a mark up of 5% to 200%.A bakery will most probably be at the higher end while a super market may work on 20%.
It pays to compare businesses with other businesses in the same sector.
Would you ask your fish and chips shop his margin?.Most probably 100% to 200% I don't, I only compare the taste.
Now back to your 10% on ROE.You may note Heartland have a long way to go, to catch up the over 14% the Aussie banks achieve.
I look forward to Heartland achieving a better ROE than the Aussies.!!!

[winner69]

Percy, so you are asking Heartland to take more risks and/or increase leverage?