HGH - Heartland Group Holdings

[Master98]

Sure am and a good number as well ( Every cent down on share price equals over $1000 for me) but still in the blue currently, always a shame to see a 35k paper profit a few months ago reduced to under 10k but youd know all about that aye me old Spark buddy PS-How come your still holding Spark.

bought some more spk at $2.645, finer cross.

[couta1]

bought some more spk at $2.45, finer cross.

Don't you mean $2.65-$2.75, hasn't been $2.45 for over a year?

[Master98]

Don't you mean $2.65-$2.75, hasn't been $2.45 for over a year?

sorry $2.645

[noodles]

Looked up the bible - Bulkowski

That flag pattern still a real possibility - if it eventuates expect $1.60 plus .....around October / November .......oops that's just after Jeff next year will be $54m-$$56m (another 15% noodles)

Given their strong track record for earnings growth, I think 54-56 might be achievable. If they did make this, I don't think the share price will still be at $1.16. But the easy margin growth days are behind them now. Loan growth will be the key going forward. I'm comfortable with their growth initiatives.

Regarding the price chart, I notice that the RSI is reading 20. This represents an extremely oversold instrument. However, given the weak close on massive volume yesterday, you would be brave to catch the falling knife.

[Beagle]

I had a good chat with my big farmer client just after market close yesterday. Owns several farms and talks to everyone. Feedback - A lot of the dairy conversions in recent years were debt funded and on assumptions of well over current pay-out level's. Sharemilkers with significant debt on their herds are in really serious trouble. HNZ have been lending too aggressively on sharemilkers herd's, he's hearing over 50% of their value. Talk around the cattle yards is all doom and gloom. Other countries are ramping up dairy production and doing it quickly.

Even his HSBC shares are in perpetual decline with a forward PE of less than 10. Virtually all the Australasian banks have breeched their 200 day MA for good reasons as all the indicators are that loan defaults from depressed commodities will dramatically rise in the foreseeable future on both sides of the Tasman. Well positioned, yes HNZ are well positioned to withstand this with a good capital ratio but the reality is they have no plan to deal with a sustained downturn in dairy and neither does any other bank. My guy thinks HNZ will cop "plenty of pain" from dairy in the years ahead...but expect to hear the usual stoic talk about supporting our clients and growing our loan book.
Ever seen an Ostrich with its head in the sand ? "I see nothink"

Fitch, (the only credit rating agency HNZ now use) recently gave a coded warning regarding the dairy sector and possible credit rating downgrades...surely even people who believe in indicators like the 200 day MA must be starting to scratch their heads ? What if HNZ got a credit rating downgrade ?

[robbo24]

Talk around the cattle yards is all doom and gloom.

Them's fighting words, Rodge.

[winner69]

I had a good chat with my big farmer client just after market close yesterday. Owns several farms and talks to everyone. Feedback - A lot of the dairy conversions in recent years were debt funded and on assumptions of well over current pay-out level's. Sharemilkers with significant debt on their herds are in really serious trouble. HNZ have been lending too aggressively on sharemilkers herd's, he's hearing over 50% of their value. Talk around the cattle yards is all doom and gloom. Other countries are ramping up dairy production and doing it quickly.

Even his HSBC shares are in perpetual decline with a forward PE of less than 10. Virtually all the Australasian banks have breeched their 200 day MA for good reasons as all the indicators are that loan defaults from depressed commodities will dramatically rise in the foreseeable future on both sides of the Tasman. Well positioned, yes HNZ are well positioned to withstand this with a good capital ratio but the reality is they have no plan to deal with a sustained downturn in dairy and neither does any other bank. My guy thinks HNZ will cop "plenty of pain" from dairy in the years ahead...but expect to hear the usual stoic talk about supporting our clients and growing our loan book.
Ever seen an Ostrich with its head in the sand ? "I see nothink"

Fitch, (the only credit rating agency HNZ now use) recently gave a coded warning regarding the dairy sector and possible credit rating downgrades...surely even people who believe in indicators like the 200 day MA must be starting to scratch their heads ? What if HNZ got a credit rating downgrade ?

Good to hear from old heads and minds from the farm gate as it is.

I think fonterra (and maybe others) have so much milk powder in storage waiting for better prices its not funny ......surely depress the global price for longer than many anticipate.

Heartland strategic focus on sharemilkers a real worry I think.

[nextbigthing]

Good post Roger, cheers.

What do you make of Buffet sniffing around the Australian banks though? Hard to argue with him.

[winner69]

Good post Roger, cheers.

What do you make of Buffet sniffing around the Australian banks though? Hard to argue with him.

As KW pointed out ...Warren getting ready to pick up the pieces and save them in year or so

[vorno]

A fair amount of worry, yes. However on the brighter-side of things Buyers are picking up now:

Buyers	Buy Quantity	Prices
4	124,743	$1.160
7	177,578	$1.150

Prices	Sell Quantity	Sellers
$1.170	121,816	2
$1.190	100,000	1