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  1. #10801
    Hunting for more dog food Beagle's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by winner69 View Post
    Back on topic .....Heartland year end not that far away

    Doubt whether we’ll get to hear much before August as $68.4m profit is in the bad as they say

    Come July/August the share price will get back into the $2.xx when it’s obvious F19 will be close to $75m profit

    No worries
    I am not nearly that optimistic. I think the current PE of 14 is about fair value but wouldn't rule out further contraction back to 13 if the economy and growth slows, mainly thanks to low business confidence caused by Labour's policies. If it stays at 14, which is by no means a given and we get ~ 7-8% EPS growth that suggests at $1.77 it won't be until Christmas 2020 when the SP will be back to $2.14 with 2 1/2 years of compound growth at that rate.


    Looking at the dividend yield is where the case for holding is best made in my opinion. Foreseeable that the average annual dividend over the next two years could be about 10 cps fully imputed 13.89 cps gross = 7.8%.
    No butts, hold no mutts, (unless they're the furry variety).

  2. #10802
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    Quote Originally Posted by Beagle View Post
    I am not nearly that optimistic. I think the current PE of 14 is about fair value but wouldn't rule out further contraction back to 13 if the economy and growth slows, mainly thanks to low business confidence caused by Labour's policies. If it stays at 14, which is by no means a given and we get ~ 7-8% EPS growth that suggests at $1.77 it won't be until Christmas 2020 when the SP will be back to $2.14 with 2 1/2 years of compound growth at that rate.
    You could well be correct Beagle. And if the economy and growth slows as you postulate...then it won't be just Heartland that suffers from some contraction of PE ratio. And then the exchange rate will go down...0.62 ?? and then.....and so it goes on.

  3. #10803
    Hunting for more dog food Beagle's Avatar
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    Default Even when you may be right you can be very wrong at the same time.

    Quote Originally Posted by RTM View Post
    You could well be correct Beagle. And if the economy and growth slows as you postulate...then it won't be just Heartland that suffers from some contraction of PE ratio. And then the exchange rate will go down...0.62 ?? and then.....and so it goes on.

    I've been reflecting on things a bit lately and the recent fracas on this thread which STMOD kindly cleaned up and subsequent emails I had with Percy and discussion with Couta1 provided further clarity. For quite some time I have felt bad that the way I conducted myself in this thread in particular during the dairy crisis and at times in other threads was inappropriate and conduct unbecoming of a professional. Even though I don't post in my professional capacity on here (and some may have noticed I try and avoid giving specific tax advice for professional reasons) there is still an obligation to conduct myself in a reasonable and fair manner and be respectful of others opinions and in a manner consistent with this sites terms and conditions and consistent with how a professional person should conduct themselves at all times.

    I failed that standard miserably during the dairy crisis and was far too dogmatic, arrogant and opinionated and I really want to sincerely apologize to Tawawera publishing the owner of the site, Vince the administrator, STMOD for all the work I caused them and especially to loyal shareholders of Heartland for causing them angst and concern.
    The way I dogmatically articulated my opinion was disgraceful, entirely inappropriate, disrespectful to others who held a different view and arrogant. The period of the dairy crisis in 2015 and through most of 2016 was a time of great stress for dairy farmers and I understand that it caused a lot of angst in the farming community. I should have been far more sensitive to that.

    Without in any way trying to diminish or minimize the harm I caused by way of some explanation Mrs Beagle and I went through a torrid time during the GFC both at a family level with what our two kids were doing and the GFC had a profound effect on us both financially and from a psychological perspective it definitely left a huge scar. This left me hypersensitive to risk within financial institutions and I got carried away with the possible impact on banks and certainly got more than a little carried away with warning about the risks.

    Even if the message is right, (and I'm not suggesting it was), if the manner in which the message is delivered is profoundly wrong then its becomes totally wrong.
    Although a few people thanked me for pointing out the risks at the time and although HBL shares did underperform the NZX50 during the dairy crisis the inappropriateness of my actions may have caused a lot of stress for others and it is to them I wish to offer this sincere apology.

    I don't wish to receive any support of credit for eventually making this apology which I should have done a very long time ago. If anyone has any concerns that I'm getting a bit "yappy" in regard to any particular subject in the future, please send me a pm expressing your concern as one thing I am sure of in life is that we all need checks and balances.

    Heartland definitely did the right thing supporting dairy farmers through the crisis and dairy has recovered nicely. I was far too arrogant thinking I could predict the future in terms of predicting gloom and doom and accept that most commodities are cyclical in terms of their pricing.

    Let me finish this post by thanking Tawawera publishing for providing this site free of charge to us all and I am sure countless people have learned a lot on here including myself and also thanking Vince and STMOD for the hard work they do to provide this wonderful site for us all to enjoy and learn for each other.

    A special thank you to Percy and Joshuatree for having the courage to point out the error of my ways. Please feel free to pm me if I err again.
    Last edited by Beagle; 17-06-2018 at 11:55 AM.
    No butts, hold no mutts, (unless they're the furry variety).

  4. #10804
    percy
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    We all have made mistakes.
    A very brave apology.

  5. #10805
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    I don't personally think you should feel the need to apologize for a position you took. I think you need to be strong and voice your opinions even if unpopular. It's the state of the world now that anyone that holds an opinion outside of the populus views should be cut down. We are going backwards in free thought. Good on you for wanting to say something - that is your right. I always enjoy your opinion and on the back of your comments I've picked up ATM at $6 and SUM at an average at $4.60 after I was compelled to look closer at them. Cheers for all the opinion

  6. #10806
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    Quote Originally Posted by couta1 View Post
    A storm must have passed through since I last looked on here.
    It must have been quite the storm!

  7. #10807
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    Hi Beagle - I'm a long-time lurker on here but this is my first ever post. It takes a big man to publicly apologise - kudos to you for doing so especially since you were simply stating your points of view. While I may not have always agreed with everything you posted it has been helpful to hear your thoughts and opinions even when they were contrary to others, even more so as I have a holding of HBL shares. I have viewed your thoughts and opinions on different companies with interest and overall feel your posts make ST a better and more valuable resource to newbie investors such as myself. Please keep posting your thoughts on various companies as opinions such as yours and Percy's help us newbies find our way as we attempt to navigate through the diverse and often confusing world of shares.

  8. #10808
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    The Beagle has landed, a big hat tip to you . Growth and unfolding in action. Inspiring stuff thank you.
    I write down quotes and stuff i value so i can learn from hopefully.heres one i like, no author unfort.

    "I understand this old world resistance to change and accepting it, its one of the safety vests humans arm themselves with against the fear /risk of the new vs the security and perceived safety of the familiar, that dugout hole in the ground"

  9. #10809
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    Roger- I hit you with a rolled up newspaper once for yapping at one of my hobby horses. As I said at the time, I generally value and recognise your knowledge, professionalism and opinions. It is never easy to apologise, and I admire and respect your post above.
    Very best wishes.

  10. #10810
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    Beagle might have posted something I've totally missed reading and/or comprehending at all being negative. Or is it because I got HBL big time when it was still less than 120 Whatever it was Beagle, carry on. The fact I noticed it not meant it wasn't at all harmful to my holdings. So TY still.
    Last edited by RGR367; 17-06-2018 at 03:45 PM.

  11. #10811
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    Beagle I never found what you said was inappropriate or sinister. Each person has their own opinion. I think apologies are not necessary

  12. #10812
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    Quote Originally Posted by Ggcc View Post
    Beagle I never found what you said was inappropriate or sinister. Each person has their own opinion. I think apologies are not necessary
    As the saying goes, It's the putting right that counts. Beagle has taken this action according to his own conscience and to put out an olive branch to those he offended, that's a big balls effort right there.

  13. #10813
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    Quote Originally Posted by couta1 View Post
    As the saying goes, It's the putting right that counts. Beagle has taken this action according to his own conscience and to put out an olive branch to those he offended, that's a big balls effort right there.
    If I offend one person I will surely apologise. In saying that, this is a forum where everyone will have a similar point of view, or a different point of view. We don't want to get personal and I hope I have not offended anyone personally.

    At the end of the day if we all get wealthy and get along. I think beagle is very much necessary in this forum as much as you, Percy, bull, and snoopy and winner just to name a few.

  14. #10814
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    Roger-I have no issues with your posts. I am full of admiration for the research that you do regarding different companies on the NZX. I am grateful for your willingness to share that research on this forum for the benefit of all sharetraders and investors. At times you can be forceful but -Hey- it is your opinion and most posters are surely aware of that.
    It amazes me at times how sensitive some posters are and how they can react indignantly which is probably a mild word to use.
    The poster I most admire on this forum is ElZorro who comments mainly in the Political threads. I disagree with most of what he writes but respect and am in awe of the always polite and very reasoned way that he states his case, in particular when he is responding to other posters' often vitriolic posts.
    Keep up the good work Beagle. You are truly a great asset to this forum.
    Last edited by Brovendell; 17-06-2018 at 07:24 PM. Reason: Punctuation

  15. #10815
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    Wow, maybe we can make this thread about HBL again?

  16. #10816
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    Quote Originally Posted by Cricketfan View Post
    Wow, maybe we can make this thread about HBL again?
    HBL is currently closed for business, please call us Monday to Friday during normal business hours.

  17. #10817
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    Quote Originally Posted by percy View Post
    We all have made mistakes.
    A very brave apology.
    I second that. Brave and honest Mr Beagle. Well done

  18. #10818
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    Quote Originally Posted by Cricketfan View Post
    Wow, maybe we can make this thread about HBL again?
    Good idea, even though I hate cricket...

  19. #10819
    Hunting for more dog food Beagle's Avatar
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    Thanks guys, you're far too kind.

    Let's get back to HBL.

    http://www.4-traders.com/HEARTLAND-B...18/financials/

    I haven't looked for a while so was pleasantly surprised to see average analyst projections are forecasting some pretty impressive growth for FY19 from an estimated 12.1 cps this year about to be concluded shortly to 13.6 cps in 2019. WOW, that's 12.4% EPS growth and if achieved would be a huge year of growth for HBL !
    At $1.75 that puts them on a forward PE of (175 / 13.6) of just 12.8 for a company growing nicely. Forecast growth for FY20 is 14.4 / 13.6 = 5.9% Average expected growth over the next two years is 9% which is north of what I was thinking the other day when I posted I think its fair value at $1.77.

    Looks pretty good value to me in an otherwise (with a few notable exceptions) fully priced market.
    No butts, hold no mutts, (unless they're the furry variety).

  20. #10820
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    Quote Originally Posted by Beagle View Post
    Thanks guys, you're far too kind.

    Let's get back to HBL.

    http://www.4-traders.com/HEARTLAND-B...18/financials/

    I haven't looked for a while so was pleasantly surprised to see average analyst projections are forecasting some pretty impressive growth for FY19 from an estimated 12.1 cps this year about to be concluded shortly to 13.6 cps in 2019. WOW, that's 12.4% EPS growth and if achieved would be a huge year of growth for HBL !
    At $1.75 that puts them on a forward PE of (175 / 13.6) of just 12.8 for a company growing nicely. Forecast growth for FY20 is 14.4 / 13.6 = 5.9% Average expected growth over the next two years is 9% which is north of what I was thinking the other day when I posted I think its fair value at $1.77.

    Looks pretty good value to me in an otherwise (with a few notable exceptions) fully priced market.
    Something not quite right?

    Reported (HBL Accounts) EPS F17 was 12. cents (NZX says 12.1 cents) and yet consensus F18 forecast is also 12.1 cents ....no growth in EPS

    Just as well we look forward eh ...even if the future numbers are based on assumptions that are just big guesses or however you described it the other day.
    Last edited by winner69; 18-06-2018 at 11:19 AM.
    “What the wise man does in the beginning, the fool does in the end”

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