HGH - Heartland Group Holdings

[Harvey Specter]

And then even worse than the futures were indicating.... down a shocking 10% hard on the back of all the other recent declines.
This is not good for the economy, not good at all.

NOt good at all. At least two bank economists are now revising their forecasts down -> Fonterra payout will probably be lower and maybe 3 OCR cuts down to 2.5% by year end.

[percy]

And then even worse than the futures were indicating.... down a shocking 10% hard on the back of all the other recent declines.
This is not good for the economy, not good at all.

Changing economic fortunes offers opportunities.While some sectors are weak, others are strong.I note Percy Book Corporation sales are running 8.95% ahead of last year, while the general book industry sales are declining.
Heartland has stable funding,and a diverse lending book,overseen by experience board, and experienced bankers in management rolls.
I would think it will be proved, when their result comes out HNZ has only a modest exposure to dairying.Heartland like PGW, have been looking to increase their exposure to this sector as this has been not been a strong area of their rural lending.
I did point out once before Heartland did take a lot of trouble explaining the Holden finance deal to me.As I said then it is a well thought promotion,attracting customers into their local Holden dealer.Most people have a trade in and are going for having a smaller loan outstanding.
Heartland have opened up new channels for lending,as they said they would.
I have neither brought or sold any shares in Heartland since last Christmas,and would think any one looking for a buying opportunity,would be wise to take advantage of the share price as it is a present.I think the sp got ahead of itself and now has over reacted the other way.My fair value would be between $1.25 and $1.35,with the prospects of organic growth and possible share buy back EPS will increase.Heartland like all banks has a good capacity to pay increasing dividends.In Heartland case they are fully imputed.Should Heartland fund a fantastic acquisition shareholders will gladly subscribe to a fund raising.

[Harvey Specter]

Changing economic fortunes offers opportunities.While some sectors are weak, others are strong.I note Percy Book Corporation sales are running 8.95% ahead of last year, while the general book industry sales are declining.

Two family business I am involved with are growing at over 10% a year - no bull (or cows involved).

[percy]

Two family business I am involved with are growing at over 10% a year - no bull (or cows involved).

Good news.
Confirms not all is doom and gloom.

[gv1]

And then even worse than the futures were indicating.... down a shocking 10% hard on the back of all the other recent declines.
This is not good for the economy, not good at all.

Ha!Ha!..I did mention earlier on...NZ economy is on borrowed time. Exactly similar thing happened to Aussie, they relied on mining. But HNZ will still make money, as farmers have to live as well.

[percy]

Looking at this;

http://www.goodreturns.co.nz/article...rrow-more.html


seems demand is strong.
Rogers point about credit quality is the potential problem. Hard to call at present, methinks.

Holding. (Roger isn't. )

Any fool can lend money.Getting it back with interest is a little harder.!!
Therefore it only pays to invest with experienced bankers.
Heartland is made up of experienced bankers,so the risks greatly diminish.Diversified sector lending is important.
Banks who are over committed with household mortgages could face some issues.Note Heartland clip the ticket ,and pass these onto Kiwi Bank.

[Beagle]

Looking at this;

http://www.goodreturns.co.nz/article...rrow-more.html


seems demand is strong.
Rogers point about credit quality is the potential problem. Hard to call at present, methinks.

Holding. (Roger isn't. )

Please Sir, can I have some more ?.... Oliver Twist anyone ? What happens when the little boy develops a systemic problem with bad behaviour and even then goes back for more porridge ?
No matter what one's will is or intentions are, its bloody hard for "little Johnny" to do his chores when both his hands are tied behind his back by extremely unfavourable circumstances.
I don't know how others feel but to me it seems this dairy thing is getting really ugly.
I'm not normally one to feel sorry for farmers but crikey this looks really tough. All the banking experience in the world won't help anyone, including HNZ shareholders if there a really prolonged iron ore type price problem with dairy.

As well as the latest extremly severe drop in dairy overnight have a look at the overall commodity price drops month on month on month over the last quarter.
http://www.sharechat.co.nz/article/6...3-year-lowhtml
If that isn't cause for concern for the N.Z. banking sector and "N.Z. Inc" then whatever drugs you're taking to see the glass half full, will you please flick some my way

[percy]

How is your big farmer client facing the challenges?
Head in the sand,or looking for opportunities?

[Beagle]

As I am sure you can understand mate, I can't share confidential client information other than to comment generally that those with no debt at all are in better shape to weather this storm.
I really hope for the sake of the country I am wrong but this is starting to look pretty scary from where I sit. Where's the light at the end of the tunnel ?
I think a full half a percent should come off immediately at the next RBNZ interest rate review, (basically they currently have the interest rate setting woefully wrong in my opinion) with a bias towards a further two or perhaps even three quarter percent cuts this year /; early 2016. We need to be about 1.5 - 1.75% on the OCR in my opinion to get the economy on some sort of equilibrium.
RBNZ an ostrich with its head in the sand moving at the pace of a snail ? Remind me again, why did we have those 4 quarter percent interest rate increases last year ? Oh that's right, the Auckland property market. Hmmmm, at the expense of the rest of the country ?

[percy]

As I am sure you can understand mate, I can't share confidential client information other than to comment generally that those with no debt at all are in better shape to weather this storm.

Pleased he is not looking for a cheaper accountant...
If you are really lucky he may pay you is good Heartland shares.!
ps.I always find it disappointing when farming suffers a slow down, that those who have not borrowed come through OK, while those who have borrowed to improve their farm often face hardships.I sold books to a rural school ,and the librarian told me it was only her modest wage that kept the farm going.A couple of years later their small farm was sold for over $4mil..!!