HGH - Heartland Group Holdings

[percy]

Sorry to keep raising your flagpole Winner, but you're about 4 cents too conservative. If we are seeing the start of the new rally, then the target will be $1.64, being the height of the previous flagpole added to the nexus of the new rally. Looking for lower lows and higher highs from here, otherwise I will be out at b/e.

Percy, when we were getting thrashed by the queen street farmers yesterday, I was waiting for you to raise the issue of the security that HNZ take over these (I'll whisper it) cow loans. Not only do they have security over the 'asset', but they also require a guarantor, GSA I would guess, whose assets would be picked over in the event of default. You know, like the Dads who risk life and limb as guarantors for son's car with the lowered door handles, and no suspension. Sounds like good smart niche banking practise to me. Anyway, seeing you didn't enter stage right with that killer blow, I thought I would mention it myself

Thank you Xerof.I did not realise they would have had a guarantor.So that is great to know.You also were clear on what % they would lend on livestock,which again I did not know.
The thrashing I took was not helping me, as I was very concerned when HNZ broke below the 200 day EMA.I had expected it to stay above it. After clearing my mixed up head,[not reading sharetrader for a few days and a couple of great book selling trips to The west Coast] I decided I had no cause to be concerned about Heartland's share price,or my overweight position. Now the tide has turned we can start thinking about Heartland's eps growth for 2016.There will be three areas that will drive this eps growth.
1] Organic growth.REL may start getting traction.Ifinance and Harmoney will be interesting.Ever changing economics in NZ will offer HNZ opportunities.I see between 5% and 12%.
2]Possible share buy back.Possibly between 2% and 10%.
3]Acquisitions.Possibly between 0% and 3%.
I look forward to reading updated brokers' reports, and more keenly to Heartland's own update, which will most probably be given later in the year at the AGM.

[percy]

This guy recommends HNZ, good on him

http://www.stuff.co.nz/business/mone...nd-new-zealand

Winner69.
As always thank you for posting the link.

[percy]

Thank you Xerof.I did not realise they would have had a guarantor.So that is great to know.You also were clear on what % they would lend on livestock,which again I did not know.
The thrashing I took was not helping me, as I was very concerned when HNZ broke below the 200 day EMA.I had expected it to stay above it. After clearing my mixed up head,[not reading sharetrader for a few days and a couple of great book selling trips to The west Coast] I decided I had no cause to be concerned about Heartland's share price,or my overweight position. Now the tide has turned we can start thinking about Heartland's eps growth for 2016.There will be three areas that will drive this eps growth.
1] Organic growth.REL may start getting traction.Ifinance and Harmoney will be interesting.Ever changing economics in NZ will offer HNZ opportunities.I see between 5% and 12%.
2]Possible share buy back.Possibly between 2% and 10%.
3]Acquisitions.Possibly between 0% and 3%.
I look forward to reading updated brokers' reports, and more keenly to Heartland's own update, which will most probably be given later in the year at the AGM.

I recently posted I thought present fair value for Heartland was between $1.25 and $1.35.I still hold that view.
So where will HNZ's share price be in a year's time.?
The above post I stated where I saw eps growth was coming from. That will drive the sp.
Other factors will be;
1] Growing acceptance of Heartland as a credible bank.
2]Growing acceptance that Heartland Bank do not have to raise capital.[as do the Aussie Banks].
3]Acceptance Heartland do not have the loan risks the Aussie Banks do.[Aussie/Auckland housing ,mining,and dairy conversion loans].
4]Acceptance Heartland have secure funding and a diversified lending book,in most areas earning higher margins, with little or no increase in risks.
5] Yield driven investors chasing Heartland's growing fully imputed dividends.[7 to 8 cents per share]
So that adds up to me a sp of between $1.45 and $1.65 plus fully imputated dividends.So depending how you account for the imputated dividends I see total returns over the next year of between 26% and 45%.
More astute investors will work out that in just under 18 months they will receive three dividends from Heartland.

[winner69]

Share price in a years time

That $1.65 keeps coming up a lot in different discussions and methodologies

Xerof mentioned $1.64 above

Percy has $1.65 (top of his range)


So it looks like $1.60 something July / August next year (no acquisitions and no takeover)

Yippee

[kizame]

It is interesting to see that the market seems to think that 114c is too cheap for this stock,the kangaroo tail on the daily and two tails on the weekly chart tends to show this. Kangaroo tails are pretty reliable turning points. Reasonable volume also during this time.
I'm all in and pretty bullish on this one now. Picked up lots more at 119.Interestingly 163 is 38.2% on fibonacci extensions and 170 = 50%

[winner69]

V = 10 (8.5 + 2g) according to Benjamin


Lets say g is a miserable 4% pa (been going at 15% lately) but this is meant to be a medium / long term rate

Heck we get $1.65 as intrinsic value

[ziggy415]

V = 10 (8.5 + 2g) according to Benjamin


Lets say g is a miserable 4% pa (been going at 15% lately) but this is meant to be a medium / long term rate

Heck we get $1.65 as intrinsic value

you and Kisame may as well be talking chinese for what i understand from your posts.....but i got the $1.65

[kizame]

you and Kisame may as well be talking chinese for what i understand from your posts.....but i got the $1.65

Yeah it does sound like chinese,its what we do either as chartists or fundermentalists to justify what we have bought,and why we paid what we did. haha

[Joshuatree]

Read more » For those few that haven't read this. A bit lightweight but a positive view .Sitting on my shares too atp.

[percy]

There's been some obligatory Aussie bank bashing on this thread so thought I'd pluck some
numbers to demonstrate the thrashing the market has been giving this poor fool.

Stocktastic says;

(ytd returns)https://www.stocktastic.co.nz/stocks


ANZ $33.520 $36.780 9.73%


HNZ $1.130 $1.200 8.85%


WBC $34.600 $37.000 6.94%


Dividends


https://www.stocktastic.co.nz/dividends
HNZ 02/04/2015 Interim $0.03000 $0.00529 $0.01167


No stocktastic report on dividends from ANZ and WBC, so I've turned to NZX
both having paid a divy in the past week.


https://www.nzx.com/markets/NZSX/sec.../ANZ/dividends
Interim 86.000c 0.000c 10.000c 01/07/2015 AUD


https://www.nzx.com/markets/NZSX/sec.../WBC/dividends
Interim 93.000c 0.000c 6.000c 02/07/2015 AUD

So there. Seems I'm getting a terrible market thrashing by holding those 'orrible aussie banks.
Just as well I'm holding a wedge of HNZ alongside them.

cheers, da fool

Sorry to be always bashing the Aussie Banks.
Just trying to make a point that HNZ can hold its head up high with them.
I think the Australian Banks have a great record of growth and paying excellent dividends.
And contrary to what I have been saying on this thread, I think the Australian banks will continue to give their shareholders excellent returns in the future.