Really? I thought one point of the TPPA was to breakdown barriers (tarrifs & the like) for our dairy exports.
(Semi-related, as selling milk helps pay for HNZ loans)
Really? I thought one point of the TPPA was to breakdown barriers (tarrifs & the like) for our dairy exports.
(Semi-related, as selling milk helps pay for HNZ loans)
Crikey...it just goes from bad to worse doesn't it !! Just as well HNZ are providing counselling and support groups for their heavily indebted customers.
Crikey...it just goes from bad to worse doesn't it !! Just as well HNZ are providing counselling and support groups for their heavily indebted customers.
Crikey...it just goes from bad to worse doesn't it !! Just as well HNZ are providing counselling and support groups for their heavily indebted customers.
Bit surprised today that no one has mentioned Craig's HNZ research which they further updated yesterday.
Maybe the headline says it all.? ;
"Positive market update,as expected dairy exposure small."
http://www.stuff.co.nz/business/7067...in-three-weeks " A bit concerned there was potential for inequality of information," Greenslade said."We wanted to make sure everyone had the same numbers." That was the reason for the statements on its dairy loans. "Then on the 18th (August) we are going to come out with our annual result and you will see a lot more detail," he said. "We don't want to drip feed out bits and pieces and get inequality of information kind of thing. On the 18th there will be a lot more detail."
WOW - some of that makes truly alarming reading, especially this bit
However the latest auction, which resulted in yet another reduction, has prompted serious doubt in the market.” He said the projected pay-out was now below the cost of production for most operators and there was now "anecdotal evidence of pressure on some farmers to sell before their financial situation deteriorates further".
“Purchasers are also holding off on making investment decisions until there is a clearer picture of what is happening in the global dairy market and are waiting for distressed sales to occur to see what happens in the rural property market as a result.”
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The problem for HNZ as I see it is that seeing as their customers are amongst the most indebted in the dairy industry, (I am still shocked by the 61% figure which will rapidly increase as loans and further financial support ids offered), how do they extricate themselves if dairy stays low ? LVR blows out further if and when we are looking at the potential for a very meaningful fall in dairy farm prices. Clearly we have the loan value moving up at a fair pace and the security value which appears to have the potential to head down at potentially an even quicker pace.
It won't take much for that LVR to blow out to a dramatically higher percentage than 61% if farm values start falling hard will it ! Then HNZ directors have a conundrum...how much support can you provide for customers when their LVR's might get into the 80's or 90% range or perish the thought, their loan is potentially higher than the realisable value of the asset's security !
How on earth is it possible to model potential loan defaults with any degree of accuracy in the prevailing highly unusual circumstances ? I think that preliminary FY16 forecast is highly vulnerable to re-estimation.
Curious why you've posted at least 6 posts today Roger on a stock you don't own? You guys need a truce;sort this out for everyones sake and especially your own.
Originally Posted by vorno
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