HGH - Heartland Group Holdings

[winner69]

Winner I think it's time you sold out of this stock and put your money somewhere else, you seem to be running with the hares and hunting with the hounds on this stock so what's the point of holding?

Taking Greensleeves advice and waiting (as an equal) because " On the 18th there will be a lot more detail."

Might be good bits

[Xerof]

Very nice doji on the weekly....yum
Yes Winner, extremely noisy this week. I find if I have something to say, once is enough. Not pointing the chicken bone at you though mate

[janner]

Wow, what a momentous week its been in Heartland land this week on Sharetrader

Bannings have been prevalent, vigorous debates and a bit of flak between members to top it of.

Then there was that Craigs report that gave Heartland a clean bill of health. And then right on cue Heartland come out with a so so announcement, OK a relief announcement to many

A lot of noise over the week eh.

And noise it has been because the Heartland share price closed the week UNCHANGED for the week (same as Friday last week)

It is a long term holding IMHO..

Very satisfied with my returns so far..

A $1.18 at close.. More than doubled my investment..

[K1W1G0LD]

Old news now I know , but still makes interesting reading , quite bullish and No trainwreck.

Heartland Bank upgraded from 'hold' to 'buy'

Heartland Bank's outlook has been upgraded, despite a disappointing share price and rising concerns about the extent of exposure of the banking sector to the stuttering dairy sector.
Research by Craigs Investment Partners has upgraded Heartland (HNZ) stock from a ''hold'' to ''buy'' recommendation, due to high capital ratio forecasts and low exposure in its overall loan book to the dairy sector.

Craigs broker Peter McIntyre said because of concerns about the possible impact of declining dairy prices, HNZ's share price had fallen almost 20% since February - from $1.41 to $1.14 yesterday.

''While the down side risk is real, we believe the impact is probably overplayed,'' he said.

Fonterra's current season forecast sits at $5.25/kg,

with a revision to be released on Friday next week, while competitor Open Country Dairy last week forecast $3.65-$3.95. Hokitika-based Westland Milk products slashed its next season forecast yesterday, from an earlier range of $5.60-$6 down to $4.60-$5.

About 7% of HNZ's overall lending portfolio was exposed to the dairy sector and the average loan-to-value ratio was 60%, while in the banking sector in general the portfolio exposure is around 15%.

Mr McIntyre said Craigs had forecast a tier 1 capital ratio for HNZ for full-year 2016 of 12.3%, including a 3.8% buffer, against the minimum required of 6%, with 2.5% buffer.

''Heartland is in a better position now to ride out any increase in impairment expense from a temporary slowdown,'' Mr McIntyre said.

Earnings changes had been made for HNZ, to reflect the dairy slowdown, with after-tax profit downgrades for full-year 2016 down by 4% and 3.9% in 2017, Mr McIntyre said.

HNZ's rural loan book for full-year 2015 totals $480 million, of which 40%, or about $192million, is exposed to the dairy sector.

Mr McIntyre said HNZ's loan to value ratio was 60%, which implied the loans were secured against $330million of farm assets.

''The asset values would have to decline by 40% before the equity of HNZ's loans becomes an issue,'' Mr McIntyre said.

Mr McIntyre said the forecast tier 1 capital ratio of 12.3%, meant HNZ had a surplus capacity, more than $100million, from which it could absorb impaired loans, assist with organic growth and/or distribute to shareholders.

Mr McIntyre believed HNZ had made a ''subtle change'' in strategic direction, and was more likely to focus on the less capital-intensive organic growth of its lending, than on further acquisitions.

''Organic growth is less capital-intensive and lower risk, and should free up the surplus capital to fund dividend growth,'' Mr McIntyre said.

[winner69]

If Heartland into lending on tractors this won't help help with organic growth

http://www.stuff.co.nz/business/farm...rises-expected

Wind back growth expectations a bit next year maybe?

[tim23]

Wait till reverse equity loans start kicking in and don't forget Harmoney, nicely placed to grow nicely.

[winner69]

Wait till reverse equity loans start kicking in and don't forget Harmoney, nicely placed to grow nicely.

And if the Aussie owned banks discourage property investors by charging them higher interest rates that opens up opportunities for niche operators like Heartland

[Bjauck]

And if the Aussie owned banks discourage property investors by charging them higher interest rates that opens up opportunities for niche operators like Heartland

If it comes to the Big Banks in NZ trying to discourage property investors, maybe that could be because even they, who profit so much from such investors, believe that property investor long-term financial health relies on continuing capital profits (especially in Auckland). Capital appreciation which the Big Banks may no longer be thinking will continue with the same level of certainty as previously.

If higher interest rates for property investors stem from specific Reserve Bank or Government requirements then those requirements would extend to Heartland.

[Beagle]

About 7% of HNZ's overall lending portfolio was exposed to the dairy sector and the average loan-to-value ratio was 60%

Don't want to appear to be splitting hairs but its actually 7.6% as confirmed by the company this week which seems to imply that by quantum this means their total dairy loan advances are possibly 8.6% higher than Craigs analysis ? (7.6/7.0 = 1.086)

Disappointing that Craigs didn't try and analyse the loan book by security type, (what percentage is secured over land and buildings and what percentage over stock i.e. sharemilkers).

Maybe some commercial sensitivity on HNZ's part surrounding that ?

[winner69]

All I can work out from Craigs report is that they have not materially changes their financial forecasts and targets

They have added some additional commentary no doubt with a little help from the company

So the BUY only came about from a lower share price since when they said HOLD - not because they think Heartland is any better?