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  1. #11721
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    $1.36, down over 6% today with an hour left to trade... and we won't talk about yesterdays drop either... winner, you reckon the race between ARV and HGH back on?
    Last edited by trader_jackson; 18-12-2018 at 03:02 PM.

  2. #11722
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    Quote Originally Posted by trader_jackson View Post
    $1.36, down over 6% today, on top of yesterdays 5% drop... winner, you reckon the race between ARV and HGH back on?
    ARV on verge of going into free fall so I'd be pretty safe in saying HGH will be higher than ARV no matter what happens to both
    “What the wise man does in the beginning, the fool does in the end”

  3. #11723
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    https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/...ectid=12179078

    Heartland led the market lower, falling 6.9 per cent to $1.35, its lowest close since August 2016. The local lender has dropped 11 per cent since the Reserve Bank unveiled plans that would require a significant increase in the capital held by banks. Macquarie analysts estimate Heartland would need to boost its capital holdings by about $1 billion.

    Anyone heard anything from heartland.

  4. #11724
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    Quote Originally Posted by ScrappyO View Post
    https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/...ectid=12179078

    Heartland led the market lower, falling 6.9 per cent to $1.35, its lowest close since August 2016. The local lender has dropped 11 per cent since the Reserve Bank unveiled plans that would require a significant increase in the capital held by banks. Macquarie analysts estimate Heartland would need to boost its capital holdings by about $1 billion.

    Anyone heard anything from heartland.
    Heartland said this yesterday
    http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-websit...529/292595.pdf

    To put that possible $1 billion extra capital needed shareholder equity at June 2018 was only $664m. That would be a huge injection eh ...but when one is highly leveraged to start with that would good.
    “What the wise man does in the beginning, the fool does in the end”

  5. #11725
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    Quote Originally Posted by winner69 View Post
    Heartland said this yesterday
    http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-websit...529/292595.pdf

    To put that possible $1 billion extra capital needed shareholder equity at June 2018 was only $664m. That would be a huge injection eh ...but when one is highly leveraged to start with that would good.
    They may need to hold off on dividends for the proposed 5 years. That is crazy money to try to raise

  6. #11726
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    Quote Originally Posted by winner69 View Post
    Heartland said this yesterday
    http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-websit...529/292595.pdf

    To put that possible $1 billion extra capital needed shareholder equity at June 2018 was only $664m. That would be a huge injection eh ...but when one is highly leveraged to start with that would good.
    Well Heartland Bank will require a 15% equity ratio.
    We know HBL had a 13.4% equity ratio.
    I believe to take that 13.4% ratio to 15% would require $69mil extra equity.[over 5 or more years].
    However HBL included Australian REL and other Australian business.
    Take that out of HGH,then we have to find out how much capital that 15% requires.
    I really do not know,but I can see Heartland Bank having 15% equity ratio,but I will have to see what equity ratio HGH has.
    To suggest HGH needs to raise a lot of capital to support Heartland Bank is with out foundation.
    The rapid growth in Australia will mean at some stage HGH will want more capital to support further ongoing growth.
    Last edited by percy; 18-12-2018 at 07:05 PM.

  7. #11727
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    Quote Originally Posted by percy View Post
    Well Heartland Bank will require a 15% equity ratio.
    We know HBL had a 13.4% equity ratio.
    I belive to take that 13.4% ratio to 15% would require $69mil extra equity.[over 5 or more years].
    However HBL included Australian REL and other Australian business.
    Take that out of HGH,then we have to find out how much capital that 15% requires.
    I really do not know,but I can see Heartland Bank having 15% equity ratio,but I will have to see what equity ratio HGH has.
    To suggest HGH needs to raise a lot of capital to support Heartland Bank is with out foundation.
    The rapid growth in Australia will mean at some stage HGH will want more capital to support further ongoing growth.
    Why would Macquarie say Heartland would need an additional $1 billion for? Additional as in above the $600 million + they have?

  8. #11728
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    Quote Originally Posted by winner69 View Post
    Heartland said this yesterday
    http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-websit...529/292595.pdf

    To put that possible $1 billion extra capital needed shareholder equity at June 2018 was only $664m. That would be a huge injection eh ...but when one is highly leveraged to start with that would good.
    If HGH need to raise $1B then they have an awful lot of stuff hidden away off the balance sheet then they have never, ever mentioned before.

    [ $583M was good enough to do 13.71% for HBL ]
    om mani peme hum

  9. #11729
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    RBNZ report reads as if they also going to tighten up on how equity ratios are calculated .....banks are a bit dodgy how they do it now.
    “What the wise man does in the beginning, the fool does in the end”

  10. #11730
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    Quote Originally Posted by percy View Post
    Well Heartland Bank will require a 15% equity ratio.
    We know HBL had a 13.4% equity ratio.
    I belive to take that 13.4% ratio to 15% would require $69mil extra equity.[over 5 or more years].
    However HBL included Australian REL and other Australian business.
    Take that out of HGH,then we have to find out how much capital that 15% requires.
    I really do not know,but I can see Heartland Bank having 15% equity ratio,but I will have to see what equity ratio HGH has.
    To suggest HGH needs to raise a lot of capital to support Heartland Bank is with out foundation.
    The rapid growth in Australia will mean at some stage HGH will want more capital to support further ongoing growth.
    Good points, the alarmists leaping to conclusions about getting to 15% is just wrong, but the market recognised that "The rapid growth in Australia will mean at some stage HGH will want more capital to support further ongoing growth." and on the back of a US market rout to recent lows, that NZX diligently follows, it's not surprising HGH SP has been punished along with the other banks who incidentally have not disclosed that they will require further capital raising, like Heartland probably will.

    Listen to the market, it has a schizophrenia about it but it does foretell discomfort and concern, in this case potentially further dilution right when the company is looking to expand into new international markets and the RBNZ raise the bar on local capital adequacy. One can't ignore the market, it's been saying for a long time that Heartlands' SP got way ahead of itself, all we're trying to figure out is how far ahead that actually is.

  11. #11731
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    What a shocker. Another day with a final wave of capitulation tomorrow ?
    Hey Winner...that head and shoulders is now complete except we can't see it because there's this new listing ticker.
    No butts, hold no mutts, (unless they're the furry variety).

  12. #11732
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    I would think like any good bank the extra costs will be passed onto the consumer in the form of higher interest rates. Will be interesting how these tightening credit conditions will flow into the NZ housing market.

  13. #11733
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    Quote Originally Posted by couta1 View Post
    This things broken and I bought more yesterday at $1.45, I'm moving back to my roots next year by getting away from diversification in any meaningful way, every time I've gone beyond holding 3 or 4 stocks I've been skunked.
    I think the mistake is not diversification but not understanding risk-or just being greedy.
    Perhaps we get carried away and biased on threads such as this.
    You mentioned sometime ago you had invested in mercury.
    In my case the gains from this have far outweighed the loss here.
    Most of my investments are low risk and diversified.
    Strange how we dont seem to talk so much about the less risky shares .

  14. #11734
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    Quote Originally Posted by Fred_Rubble View Post
    I would think like any good bank the extra costs will be passed onto the consumer in the form of higher interest rates. Will be interesting how these tightening credit conditions will flow into the NZ housing market.
    ANZ NZ has come out and said they will need additional $ 6-8 BILLION to meet the new capital requirements. BNZ, Westpac and ASB have all said they need large numbers. All the aforementioned, as well as Kiwibank, have said there is no question mortgage and other lending rates need to go up.
    Lets see if the Reserve Bank actually goes ahead with this. Can't imagine the Government being excited about it.

  15. #11735
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    https://tmmonline.nz/article/9765141...rowth-kiwibank

    I like the analogy of the plumber used in this story. I expect the net effect on HGH in terms of earnings per share going forward to be minimal if any.
    No butts, hold no mutts, (unless they're the furry variety).

  16. #11736
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    Quote Originally Posted by Beagle View Post
    https://tmmonline.nz/article/9765141...rowth-kiwibank

    I like the analogy of the plumber used in this story. I expect the net effect on HGH in terms of earnings per share going forward to be minimal if any.
    Costs going up, to me, is likely outcome. Has (intended) consequence of making credit more expensive and will help cap demand for credit

  17. #11737
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    Quote Originally Posted by Beagle View Post
    What a shocker. Another day with a final wave of capitulation tomorrow ?
    Hey Winner...that head and shoulders is now complete except we can't see it because there's this new listing ticker.
    Here we go - courtesy of bigcharts:

    HGHHuS.jpg
    Last edited by BlackPeter; 19-12-2018 at 07:49 AM.
    ----
    "Prediction is very difficult, especially about the future" (Niels Bohr)

  18. #11738
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    Quote Originally Posted by BlackPeter View Post
    Here we go - courtesy of bigcharts:

    HGHHuS.jpg
    Jeez that’s one really sad chart

    Multiyear lows and nearly 40% off it’s not that long ago highs

    What a dog

    Doubt Heartland will be showing a TSR Chart in their upcoming presentations .....Jeff was always so proud of such a chart and shareholders salivated over it.

    Maybe reasonably priced by the market now ....just

    I take my hat off to those punters who sold out over 2 bucks
    “What the wise man does in the beginning, the fool does in the end”

  19. #11739
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    Quote Originally Posted by BlackPeter View Post
    Here we go - courtesy of bigcharts:

    HGHHuS.jpg
    The Mountain looks complete.

  20. #11740
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    Quote Originally Posted by winner69 View Post
    Jeez that’s one really sad chart

    Multiyear lows and nearly 40% off it’s not that long ago highs

    What a dog

    Doubt Heartland will be showing a TSR Chart in their upcoming presentations .....Jeff was always so proud of such a chart and shareholders salivated over it.

    Maybe reasonably priced by the market now ....just

    I take my hat off to those punters who sold out over 2 bucks
    Thanks and many thanks to you BP for the chart. I reckon we're very close to a bottom on this. $1.32 would see this as a perfect 10/10
    Forward PE of 10 based on forecast earnings of 13.2 cps and 10% gross dividend yield based on 9.5 cps / 0.72 = 13.194 cps gross.
    Those are to the best of my recollection the best metrics this company has traded on in many many years.
    http://www.sharechat.co.nz/article/9...ges-higherhtml
    We all know this strong correlation so that suggests we have already hit a bottom and its onward and upward from here.
    Last edited by Beagle; 19-12-2018 at 08:27 AM.
    No butts, hold no mutts, (unless they're the furry variety).

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