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  1. #11781
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    Quote Originally Posted by Beagle View Post
    Neither are defensive in a bear market so to pick then one needs to assume either the bear isn't coming here or these companies are special and immune to a bear market, (nothing about their SP performance in 2018 provides evidence of the latter in my opinion). If they could just stop going down and pay their dividends for 2019 that would be a good start. (Still hold some HGH)
    Well they are in my picks and it looks like there are a few behind me in this years comp so let's see.

  2. #11782
    Hunting for more dog food Beagle's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by couta1 View Post
    Well they are in my picks and it looks like there are a few behind me in this years comp so let's see.
    You got there by not having them in your 2018 picks competition. You must be working on the principle that every dog has its day
    I wouldn't mind having a few bob that one of your other picks is OCA
    Merry Christmas mate.
    No butts, hold no mutts, (unless they're the furry variety).

  3. #11783
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    Quote Originally Posted by couta1 View Post
    I'm thinking both HGH and TRA will be good candidates for the 2019 stock picking comp, dash I've let the cat out of the bag now.
    Just like Dogs of the Dow the Dogs of the NZX sometimes a good strategy but more often than not tend to underperform (as a group). Losers often remain losers

    Dogs of the NZX were in the bottom 10 in the 2017 competition

    Both down nearly 30% this year .....couldn’t repeat that could they ...you never know
    Last edited by winner69; 26-12-2018 at 07:15 AM.
    “What the wise man does in the beginning, the fool does in the end”

  4. #11784
    Hunting for more dog food Beagle's Avatar
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    Vehicle retailers and manufactures generally speaking had their share prices brutalised in the GFC...people simply fix the vehicle they have as and when necessary in really tough times. The other thing is a lot more loans go bad so Turners cop it from both directions whereas at least with HGH more and more people borrow money even at higher interest rates in the hope of getting by so at least HGH get more business to help with their significantly increased loan delinquencies. Dog's can be dog's two years in a row, even three.

    GE a classic example...that was a real dog of the DOW in 2017 (down from $31.60 to $17.45) and anyone who bought that at $17.45 as part of their dog's of the Dow strategy for 2018 was been well bitten with it now down to $6.92, a 60% loss in 2018 after nearly halving the year before ! Couldn't happen on the NZX though...or could it...

    Financials and vehicle companies are not defensive sectors.
    Last edited by Beagle; 26-12-2018 at 10:01 AM.
    No butts, hold no mutts, (unless they're the furry variety).

  5. #11785
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    HGH's Marac downfall was property development loans.The rest of Marac's business traded well through GFC.
    Turners had one bad year in 2008 and a huge profit in 2009.
    Neither had any abnormal vehicle loan problems.
    Both companies have strengthened their business model since GFC,and will trade well in any slowdown.
    I expect HGH's REL business to keep going gangbusters.A matter of the right product at the right time.Pleasing they have secured funding for the next four years from CBA."Committed [think about the pig and the chicken.lol.]warehouse facility to 30th September 2022."
    Last edited by percy; 26-12-2018 at 12:07 PM.

  6. #11786
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    Quote Originally Posted by percy View Post
    HGH's Marac downfall was property development loans.The rest of Marac's business traded well through GFC.
    Turners had one bad year in 2008 and a huge profit in 2009.
    Neither had any abnormal vehicle loan problems.
    Both companies have strengthened their business model since GFC,and will trade well in any slowdown.
    I expect HGH's REL business to keep going gangbusters.A matter of the right product at the right time.Pleasing they have secured funding for the next four years from CBA."Committed [think about the pig and the chicken.lol.]warehouse facility to 30th September 2022."
    Nice quote and completely agree. looking at topping up on this gem in the new year.

  7. #11787
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    Couldn't find heartland in any of the big wig brokers picks
    Perhaps more surprising, is I found AFT and ARV

  8. #11788
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    $1.33 ... sheesh, this is now exactly at the level where I first bought into HBL just over three years ago. Sold out during October/November, I might just be tempted to get back in at these levels once the tide turns.

  9. #11789
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    Quote Originally Posted by oldtech View Post
    $1.33 ... sheesh, this is now exactly at the level where I first bought into HBL just over three years ago. Sold out during October/November, I might just be tempted to get back in at these levels once the tide turns.
    Hard to believe where the price has dropped to, I'm sitting on some serious paper losses with this and TRA, were talking a serious Bear attack here not a little tickle up Beagle just experienced with KMD.

  10. #11790
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    $1.32, crazy stuff... and I thought $1.50 was cheap... Gross dividend yield nearing 10% now
    They need to come out with some sort of announcement reaffirming profit guidance, surely can't go below $1.30
    A good few cents below that dog on the asx flexigroup - now that when you know its bad

  11. #11791
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    A very good result coming out in 4 to 5 weeks so no worries long term

    The expected rerating down because of the ‘riskier’ group structure continues
    “What the wise man does in the beginning, the fool does in the end”

  12. #11792
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    I also have a paper loss - but $1.33 was so attractive that I pinged off some STU at a loss and popped the HGH order in @ $1.33.
    4:00 pm came and and the last order seemed to go through @ $1.34.
    Blow me at 5:00pm I get an email confirming the buy at $1.32
    Strange but it pays the brokerage.

    Yes looking forward to some reaffirmation of guidance.

  13. #11793
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    Quote Originally Posted by winner69 View Post
    A very good result coming out in 4 to 5 weeks so no worries long term

    The expected rerating down because of the ‘riskier’ group structure continues
    I thought the group structure thing was meant to put HGH on a higher PE? as they can grow faster now without as much pesky regulations etc

  14. #11794
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    Quote Originally Posted by couta1 View Post
    Hard to believe where the price has dropped to, I'm sitting on some serious paper losses with this and TRA, were talking a serious Bear attack here not a little tickle up Beagle just experienced with KMD.
    The market either knows something I don't, or the market fears something I don't.
    HGH's half year result announcement is due early February,and should confirm my confidence "all is on track".
    TRA's divie is due at the end of this month.No sure when their next update will be..

  15. #11795
    Hunting for more dog food Beagle's Avatar
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    Fear of the bear.
    No butts, hold no mutts, (unless they're the furry variety).

  16. #11796
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    Funny HGH sp went down, as milk prices went up.????? ....lol.
    Must prove people fear "The Bear" more than they love "The Cow."...??????????????
    Last edited by percy; 03-01-2019 at 04:50 PM.

  17. #11797
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    Quote Originally Posted by percy View Post
    Funny HGH sp went down, as milk prices went up.????? ....lol.
    Must prove people fear "The Bear" more than they love "The Cow."...??????????????
    Dairy prices went up like HGH share price went up a few weeks ago ....probably means dairy prices will fall over next month

    It’s the trend that matters
    “What the wise man does in the beginning, the fool does in the end”

  18. #11798
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    Quote Originally Posted by winner69 View Post
    Dairy prices went up like HGH share price went up a few weeks ago ....probably means dairy prices will fall over next month

    It’s the trend that matters
    Not for long term share holders,including directors and management with substantial holdings.
    It is HGH's fundamentals and outlook.

  19. #11799
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    Quote Originally Posted by percy View Post
    Not for long term share holders,including directors and management with substantial holdings.
    It is HGH's fundamentals and outlook.
    And those fundamentals and outlook are really solid ...no worries here
    “What the wise man does in the beginning, the fool does in the end”

  20. #11800
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    Quote Originally Posted by trader_jackson View Post
    $1.32, crazy stuff... and I thought $1.50 was cheap... Gross dividend yield nearing 10% now
    They need to come out with some sort of announcement reaffirming profit guidance, surely can't go below $1.30
    A good few cents below that dog on the asx flexigroup - now that when you know its bad
    Heartland getting the flexi disease since becaming an Aussie company has been painful.

    Market shows no respect for dodgy Aussie finance companies eh ....wonder if there’s a cure
    “What the wise man does in the beginning, the fool does in the end”

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