HGH - Heartland Group Holdings

[Joshuatree]

I like it when Oldies just want to stay at the house they've been in for a long time and are comfortable with the familiarity and memories, community , shops etc and they just want to stay until the end ,or a rest home. Asset rich but cash poor the Reverse mortgage has its place and human face for some.

[ziggy415]

All true. Worked with the product a few years ago and saw the human side; good and bad. On balance, just didn't like it.

I too was bit concerned with this product until some posters on this thread posted their thoughts.....if mum sold the house 2 years ago because she couldnt afford the upkeep after dad went into a rest home,that 1 million dollar house will now be worth 1.45 million.....if she had only reverse mortgaged she would be quids in....then she buys a half million dollar house where she doesnt really want to live and puts the xtra half million dollars in the bank then Mr tax man says you got too much money so now you have to fund hubbies rest home care till your down to $160,000......only works in high growth area like Auckland i guess......

[Beagle]

You are not seeing the human side. What about Mr Jones who desperately needs that operation, but doesn't want to wait 12 months in the public system waiting list. Heartland are providing a great service that only 2 banks now offer. Most banks can't be bothered with the long signup process.

What's more, Heartland guarantees you will always have your house (even if the loan is a high as the value).

I agree 100% and there's the long sign up process that compels people to get independent legal advice so I don't see where the problem is for either the bank or its customers with HER loans. I think HER is a good product for customers and HNZ andf the fact that there's one less player in the field is clearly a most welcome positive for HNZ.
OTOH it is very, very sad to hear talk on the main T.V. news bulletins last night and this morning of farmers considering walking off their farms.

[percy]

I too was bit concerned with this product until some posters on this thread posted their thoughts.....if mum sold the house 2 years ago because she couldnt afford the upkeep after dad went into a rest home,that 1 million dollar house will now be worth 1.45 million.....if she had only reverse mortgaged she would be quids in....then she buys a half million dollar house where she doesnt really want to live and puts the xtra half million dollars in the bank then Mr tax man says you got too much money so now you have to fund hubbies rest home care till your down to $160,000......only works in high growth area like Auckland i guess......

Spot on post.
No I found it worked even on a $500,000 home in ChCh too.

[couta1]

Bottom line is that REM allow people to turn their assett into cash and use it themselves rather than leaving it to someone else, have a nice day, off skiing now

[Beagle]

Bottom line is that REM allow people to turn their assett into cash and use it themselves rather than leaving it to someone else, (many of whom won't truly appreciate it anyway) have a nice day, off skiing now

Fixed that for you mate, have a great day

[winner69]

So

- its all about organic growth for the next few years
- increased earnings from this grow but mainly from efficiencies/productivity improvments
- so $48m this year and at beat $56m this year in NPAT
- keep paying out 70% in dividends (yes?)
- Book value at end of this year $0.99 and $1.03 next year
- Heartland presentations imply a share price of 1.2 times book value is about where it should be
- Craigs et al use this 1.2 factor a lot in their analysis
- Current performance and macro environment hardly warrants a rerating (say to a P/B of 1.4)
- This time next year Price/Book of 1.2 would give a share price of $1.24


OK for dividend lovers at this price but not very exciting is it

Can't wait until next week to see what Greensleeves says

[winner69]

Dairy might only be a few hundred million bucks and everybody seems comfortable that its all honky dory with Heartland and their dairy exposure but read pages 12 to 14 of this
http://tonyalexander.co.nz/wp-conten...gust-20151.pdf

Real comments from real farmers today, so depressing. Surely some of those making comments are Heartland clients

Methinks bankers sitting in city offices just don't realise how bad it is .....or they are wondering how they are going to explain to shareholders there is a problem.

Remember a smallish % of dairy write offs = large % of expected Heartland profits

All cleared up next week when the numbers come out?

[Beagle]

Makes profoundly sobering reading and almost all respondents comments were before yet another 10% collapse in GDT price this week. Good that HNZ are referring their at risk customers to counselling services, (might save a few lives). Just announced by ANZ, $3b capital raise...bound to suck even more wind out of the lifeless sails of this sector.

[Joshuatree]

Who knows. for me its ahold atm certainly not a buy. S/P weakening again .If your conviction is not there maybe sell some to ease discomfort being all in.Int in Craigs excellent 3 monthly. News and views just out (subtitled Storm clouds gathering,Time to act)that HNZ doesn't get a mention at all, no, buy, increase, hold, reduce or sell.