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  1. #5931
    ShareTrader Legend Beagle's Avatar
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    Pink put out an excellent album in 2001 titled Missundaztood - I know how she feels. I'd imagine she's banked a few profits lately too though which I am sure she also takes solace from.

    Anyway...back to HNZ, the update on dairy loans on 18 August will be interesting...like many I am wondering where the bottom is.
    Last edited by Beagle; 07-08-2015 at 12:55 PM.

  2. #5932
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    Quote Originally Posted by Hoop View Post
    Agree...Just to add my lengthy 2c worth...

    The MA200 indicator is just one tool of many for long term investors. It's a lagging indicator and triggers a sell signal often well after a downtrend pattern is already established, so many investors see this tool as irrelevant...My yesterdays chart shows the EMA200 (similar to MA200)recently being whipsawed, this is something that an less experienced TA disciplined long investors would hate and tempt that person to abandon the TA methodology...
    However that person should see the MA200 for what it's purposes are and what it indicates..although the price/ma200 break is significant, its the slope of the ma200 line which matters.
    A rule of thumb and one which unfortunately media thinks its Gospel is when the ma200 slope turns downwards it signals that this price weakness is not a bull market correction event but a cyclic reversal to Bear cycle.
    Notice on my chart that the quicker and more sensitive EMA50 and EMA100 line slopes have developed a downtrend and for HNZ to get a downtrend ma200 slope more price decreases are needed....so HNZ not yet signaling a Bear cycle under the media's gospel.
    Yes when the MA200 slopes downwards it could reflect a bear market cycle but when using any indicator there needs to be confirmations..

    Other methods to confirm are:
    1...a drop of >20%
    2...The bull/bear support line is at 1.12 not marked on my chart.
    3...many others

    For the Optimists
    My recent chart shows HNZ a pattern resembling a long term flagpole + the flag. Believe it or not this type of pattern is a bullish chart pattern..The pattern shows the irrational greed behaviour in the stampede to the top which quickly (fundamentally) overvalues the shareprice..This orderly downtrend result is investor rational reality being slightly more powerful than the irrational investors in denial and this rationality will bring the market back to where Mr Market now thinks it should be...perhaps we are nearly there at this level with the bull/bear line in sight at 1.12 ..perhaps not....who knows??...

    TAers always tell investors 2 basic things... TA can not predict the future with certainty and "DO NOT rely on one indicator, or a single rule"...TA can be complex and incorporate many investor strategies, each with a set of tools, each with different entry and exit points when buying/selling shares. Because there are many TA strategy options there is often no right or wrong answer (TAers often at odds with each other) as those seemingly simple squiggly lines could just be a few tools in the toolbox of an very experienced TA investor using a very complex investment strategy.

    However there are many much simpler/basic strategies which work reasonably well..The one I post on Sharetrader is a medium term "be patient and only act on confirming signals" strategy and is easy to understand and use.

    For those investors that have patience weaknesses in their mental make up..my posted TA discipline would not be suited to them...Their better TA Strategy would be "Preemptive buy action at support areas" ...word of caution for those entering into HNZ now...preempting the market's future action is very risky....if using this risky strategy you must use the the "minimising risk" tools that comes with this disciplined strategy ... the most important of these tools is applying automatic stop/loss set just below the bull/bear line or atm lines or any other method such as analysing depth tables used by nonTAers...Automatic is underlined because its a must for most people...do not rely on your own judgements unless your mental strengths include abiding to rigid disciplines and/or highly experienced very successful investor with extremely good/proven "gut feel".
    HNZ has fallen further to reach that all important bull/bear support line ..The depth today confirms this 112 line is hugely supported ( "at this moment" ) with 11 active buyers worth $165,952 at 112c...

  3. #5933
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    Quote Originally Posted by Roger View Post
    ...like many I am wondering where the bottom is.
    Usually at the top of the legs.

  4. #5934
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    Quote Originally Posted by Hoop View Post
    HNZ has fallen further to reach that all important bull/bear support line ..The depth today confirms this 112 line is hugely supported ( "at this moment" ) with 11 active buyers worth $165,952 at 112c...
    That support just got wiped out, not looking good

  5. #5935
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    Quote Originally Posted by Derain View Post
    That support just got wiped out, not looking good
    Just like farmers profits. Milk price down to $3.85.

  6. #5936
    Speedy Az winner69's Avatar
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    You are right again Hoop. That 112 is critical

    However methinks HNZ will never, never, go below 112

    The Plunge Team will come out and start buying. Just can't go below 112, just can't.
    “ At the top of every bubble, everyone is convinced it's not yet a bubble.”

  7. #5937
    Speedy Az winner69's Avatar
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    An hour or so to go today

    CLOSE AT 114 I RECKON

    Panic over
    “ At the top of every bubble, everyone is convinced it's not yet a bubble.”

  8. #5938
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    Quote Originally Posted by winner69 View Post
    You are right again Hoop. That 112 is critical

    However methinks HNZ will never, never, go below 112

    The Plunge Team will come out and start buying. Just can't go below 112, just can't.
    who said will never go below 112? 111 now, help!!!

  9. #5939
    Senior Member warthog's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Master98 View Post
    who said will never go below 112? 111 now, help!!!
    17k shares wanted @$1.11

    So much for support!

    Disc.: not a holder (yet)
    warthog ... muddy and smelly

  10. #5940
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    Quote Originally Posted by Master98 View Post
    who said will never go below 112? 111 now, help!!!
    Take a deep breath and relax, just another bad market day in general where a lot of silly buggers lose a lot of money, I'd rather just look at a bigger red arrow, heaps of snow falling today on the Q/Town skifields so all good.

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