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  1. #5971
    ShareTrader Legend Beagle's Avatar
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    I think its quite clear that most dairy farmers will be working very closely indeed with their banks and professional advisors. The extra 50 cents per kilo simply buys many dairy farmers some time.
    Patriotic thinking surrounding where payments go will have absolutely nothing to do with it. Many "will be encouraged" to exit in a managed way. Other more ruthless / prudent ? banks will simply call in loan facilities.
    Many bank managers have already told their dairy clients to put their chequebooks in the bottom drawer so the 50 cent Fonterra loan effectively goes straight to whichever bank the farmer banks with.
    I find it ironic that Fontera call this a loan. If they cut their cloth to suit the current world-wide dairy situation they could probably pay 50 cents more per kilo properly.
    I still believe if some part of a company is a diseased mutt, a full exploration of the extent and nature of the disease and its overall effects on the company's health by way of an open, honest and frank debate is a valuable thing for all and this old bloodhound won't wear a muzzle even if some others would like him too.
    Last edited by Beagle; 08-08-2015 at 12:03 PM.

  2. #5972
    Speedy Az winner69's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Roger View Post

    ...........by way of an open, honest and frank debate is a valuable thing for all and this old bloodhound won't wear a muzzle even if some others would like him too.
    Ha ha Roger - I think quite a few members told you and me to fuk off last night. They don't want nonholders and freewheelers posting here, upsets them apparently.

    Conversely I find the same old repetitious stuff saying how good HNZ are that gets posted a bit boring. hardly anything new most of the time..

    Obviously no muzzling you Roger .....getting told to fuk off is like a red rag to a bull to me anyway.

    I think both sides of the story are important.
    “ At the top of every bubble, everyone is convinced it's not yet a bubble.”

  3. #5973
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    Quote Originally Posted by Roger View Post
    I think its quite clear that most dairy farmers will be working very closely indeed with their banks and professional advisors. The extra 50 cents per kilo simply buys many dairy farmers some time.
    Patriotic thinking surrounding where payments go will have absolutely nothing to do with it. Many "will be encouraged" to exit in a managed way. Other more ruthless / prudent ? banks will simply call in loan facilities.
    Many bank managers have already told their dairy clients to put their chequebooks in the bottom drawer so the 50 cent Fonterra loan effectively goes straight to whichever bank the farmer banks with.
    I find it ironic that Fontera call this a loan. If they cut their cloth to suit the current world-wide dairy situation they could probably pay 50 cents more per kilo properly.
    I still believe if some part of a company is a diseased mutt, a full exploration of the extent and nature of the disease and its overall effects on the company's health by way of an open, honest and frank debate is a valuable thing for all and this old bloodhound won't wear a muzzle even if some others would like him too.
    Agree with you Roger, Fonterra costs have blown out, there is a disconnect between the company and its owners and it is ridiculous that it is headquartered in Auckland (why not in a dairy region!). Fonterra benefited from the high payout due to first mover advantage and being setup for milk powder production when china came along in the search for protein to feed its massively booming middle class, however other countiries are catching up. Yes there are issues that havnt helped ie - dairy ban in russia from europe but the fault cant lie solely on these issues.

    The people I feel for are the young lower order share milkers and first year 50:50 share milkers with very little assets, probably large overdrafts and mortgages to get started and still having high fixed costs and having to work the very long hours, all this to end the year $10,000's - $100'000s in the the red. (now all of those high flying fonterra employees who have tripled over the last few years - without actually growing the business much get there big pay packets). People who own farms and have a high proportion of equity will be able to ride out the hard times for several years, except those with a high percentage of debt on their land. But I'm sure it will a fair few dairy farming operations back to a low cost structure resulting in NZ becoming very competitive again thus squeezing overseas competitors, reducing world supply and increasing the payout, as many operations have become very high cost with the good payout years. The low NZD will also help and hopefully the Russians might get some NZ cheese again in the near future when Putin and the west sort their differences!
    Last edited by NZSilver; 08-08-2015 at 12:46 PM.

  4. #5974
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    [QUOTE=winner69;585119]Ha ha Roger - I think quite a few members told you and me to fuk off last night. They don't want nonholders and freewheelers posting here, upsets them apparently.


    No, not upset at all but grateful for improving the buying opportunities. - Lower the price - better the yield ��
    SCOTTY

  5. #5975
    Guru Xerof's Avatar
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    Solve Auckland's housing crisis - move Fonterra Head Office to Invercargill

  6. #5976
    percy
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    Success!! SUCCESS,success!!!!!
    I finally worked out how to put people on my ignore list..
    Working a treat..!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
    PS.Great post Xerof.

  7. #5977
    Speedy Az winner69's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by percy View Post
    Success!! SUCCESS,success!!!!!
    I finally worked out how to put people on my ignore list..
    Working a treat..!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
    PS.Great post Xerof.
    Betcha do a bit of cheating though

    If you see this post probably have
    Last edited by winner69; 08-08-2015 at 02:30 PM.
    “ At the top of every bubble, everyone is convinced it's not yet a bubble.”

  8. #5978
    ShareTrader Legend Beagle's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by winner69 View Post
    Ha ha Roger - I think quite a few members told you and me to fuk off last night. They don't want nonholders and freewheelers posting here, upsets them apparently.

    Conversely I find the same old repetitious stuff saying how good HNZ are that gets posted a bit boring. hardly anything new most of the time..

    Obviously no muzzling you Roger .....getting told to fuk off is like a red rag to a bull to me anyway.

    I think both sides of the story are important.
    Thanks mate, I couldn't agree more. Any good dog that loves his work and loves a good bark hates a muzzle, free spirited independent thinking ones, all the more so. Red rag to a bull to me too mate.

    Quote Originally Posted by NZSilver View Post
    Agree with you Roger, Fonterra costs have blown out, there is a disconnect between the company and its owners and it is ridiculous that it is headquartered in Auckland (why not in a dairy region!). Fonterra benefited from the high payout due to first mover advantage and being setup for milk powder production when china came along in the search for protein to feed its massively booming middle class, however other countiries are catching up. Yes there are issues that havnt helped ie - dairy ban in russia from europe but the fault cant lie solely on these issues.

    The people I feel for are the young lower order share milkers and first year 50:50 share milkers with very little assets, probably large overdrafts and mortgages to get started and still having high fixed costs and having to work the very long hours, all this to end the year $10,000's - $100'000s in the the red. (now all of those high flying fonterra employees who have tripled over the last few years - without actually growing the business much get there big pay packets). People who own farms and have a high proportion of equity will be able to ride out the hard times for several years, except those with a high percentage of debt on their land. But I'm sure it will a fair few dairy farming operations back to a low cost structure resulting in NZ becoming very competitive again thus squeezing overseas competitors, reducing world supply and increasing the payout, as many operations have become very high cost with the good payout years. The low NZD will also help and hopefully the Russians might get some NZ cheese again in the near future when Putin and the west sort their differences!
    Top post mate but don't hold your breath waiting for hostilities to quieten down between Russia and the West. Hostilities have a way of festering unless people learn how to ignore others they can't seem to get along with.

    Quote Originally Posted by percy View Post
    Success!! SUCCESS,success!!!!!
    I finally worked out how to put people on my ignore list..
    Working a treat..!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
    PS.Great post Xerof.
    The ignore setting is a great idea for others that don't value robust open debate from the likes of Winner69 and myself.
    Last edited by Beagle; 08-08-2015 at 03:47 PM.

  9. #5979
    The Wolf of Sharetrader
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    Default Simmer down Warren

    Estimated 2016 NPAT $51 - $55M from HNZ latest update. They tend to easily meet their stated objectives. So say $53M.
    $53M / 470M shares / $1.11 closing price = earnings yield of approx 10%.


    HNZ aren't stupid and know what's going on with dairy, that's why they briefly addressed that concern in their update. They've stated the '$53M' figure includes impairments.


    Dairy is only 7.6% of its lending book. Of that, how many guys are actually going to completely tip over, given the extra lending and support from HNZ* and the support from Fonterra etc. Even of the guys that do unfortunately go under, obviously some of the loan is still recoverable. Sure, the lower payouts aren't good news for HNZ, but how badly are they really going to be affected?


    Let's not also forget that while dairying isn't looking too flash at the moment, other sectors are doing nicely, to HNZ's advantage. I know of two dairy farmers who have each just purchased supplementary beef blocks.

    Even if they lose a few loans and therefore the ongoing revenue streams, what will the earnings yield drop down to? Maybe 8%? That's still far better than the return in most other dividend stocks (if they went to 100% payout), and it's easily fair compensation for the risk.


    Trend is your friend and I'm not advocating buying now. But a company with great fundamentals and a great track record being on sale due to a
    temporary drop in milk prices, this strikes me as the sort of situation that would have Buffet all barred up in his old white wirefronts. Simmer down Warren.

    Disc hold and will buy more when time is right.


    NBT



    *more revenue.

  10. #5980
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    Gee Nexbigthing - would have thought anytime now was a good time to buy?

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