HGH - Heartland Group Holdings

[RTM]

Roger,

I realise you have a lot more experience with finance companies than I have as I completely dodged their meltdown, and I think that this has perhaps coloured your thinking to a large extent with respect to Heartland.
That's fine...and I can understand why you are so negative there. I must admit I am a little surprise that you think that the HNZ management are so inept that they would get our company into difficulty, especially so soon after the finance company meltdown. Surely the lessons learnt will still be with them and their lending will be reasonably well diversified. I think so and rightly or wrongly will therefore continue to hold my HNZ shares.

What I am more surprised about is that you seem to think companies such as PGW AIR and SCL are less risky. Disc: I hold all three.
AIR.... They are one pilot error away from a major crash of their share price. That's all it would take to maybe halve the share price, perhaps worse.
SCL... Have most of their production in Hawkes Bay. A disease issue, major drought, a series of hailstorms etc could see SCL have major issues.
PGW... Perhaps the least risky as they service all the agricultural sectors, so might be a little safer.

Above does not include normal market and business risks that would apply to all. Exchange Rates, market access, interest rates etc etc.

With all the stocks I have, I can dream up a whole series of dooms day scenarios that could quite possibly occur with any of them. Hopefully not at all the same time.
I really do think you need to lighten up on HNZ a bit ! They are probably less risky than a lot of other companies. And will certainly benefit in 12-18 months or so when interest rates start to rise.

Cheers
RTM

[nextbigthing]

So 111 was a lower low in the current downtrend. Previous lower high was 121 so that immediate target to see if the good news etc is enough to break out of this downtrend (from 141)

OZ banks recovered yesterday afternoon. US markets up heaps overnight. Mike Hosking says the worlds all OK. - today will be a big day for Heartland shares, maybe even close to 120

Lol Winner.

Ok start to the day anyway.

[winner69]

Lol Winner.

Ok start to the day anyway.

There us a trading perspective to keep an eye on as well as the fundamental view.

It's all about market sentiment whether the fundamentals suck or a brillant. Charts measure that (degree of) market sentiment.


Keep an eye on the chart ....better for you today and tomorrow than taking solace from a Craig's report. They are only useful for looking back in a years time to see how good they were.

[Beagle]

Roger,

I realise you have a lot more experience with finance companies than I have as I completely dodged their meltdown, and I think that this has perhaps coloured your thinking to a large extent with respect to Heartland.
That's fine...and I can understand why you are so negative there. I must admit I am a little surprise that you think that the HNZ management are so inept that they would get our company into difficulty, especially so soon after the finance company meltdown. Surely the lessons learnt will still be with them and their lending will be reasonably well diversified. I think so and rightly or wrongly will therefore continue to hold my HNZ shares.

What I am more surprised about is that you seem to think companies such as PGW AIR and SCL are less risky. Disc: I hold all three.
AIR.... They are one pilot error away from a major crash of their share price. That's all it would take to maybe halve the share price, perhaps worse.
SCL... Have most of their production in Hawkes Bay. A disease issue, major drought, a series of hailstorms etc could see SCL have major issues.
PGW... Perhaps the least risky as they service all the agricultural sectors, so might be a little safer.

Above does not include normal market and business risks that would apply to all. Exchange Rates, market access, interest rates etc etc.

With all the stocks I have, I can dream up a whole series of dooms day scenarios that could quite possibly occur with any of them. Hopefully not at all the same time.
I really do think you need to lighten up on HNZ a bit ! They are probably less risky than a lot of other companies. And will certainly benefit in 12-18 months or so when interest rates start to rise.

Cheers
RTM

Thank you for taking the time in a nice way to share your perspective and for your constructive criticism RTM which I have taken on board. In some respects its only human nature that the very tough experiences, (scars permanently seared into our brain), we've been through mean we all see the same situation through a different set of lenses and as you allude too if people have seen appalling management practices during the GFC with finance companies sometimes its difficult not to be pre-disposed towards looking for problematic type lending, the type of concerns I've fully articulated earlier.

In much the same way I'd speculate that children who lost their parents in the Erebus disaster might have a pre-disposed aversion to AIR or those who've lost their fortune in a disease, drought or pestilence type situation with their own agri venture would not be favourablly disposed towards investing in a listed entity exposed to those risks.

Its not the stock for me and as you suggest it is time to lighten up and move on. The eventual losses from dairy won't be known for several years...predicting the future is a difficult and inexact science at the best of times.

Anyway my views are well known and I retain many of my concerns so its not the right stock for me. I look at the long game and see systemic losses flowing through to their balance sheet. Its worth remembering that the stock was only $1.00 in late October 2014 when dairy was in far more robust shape than the current dire state of the industry. Only time will tell how this plays out.
(Note to self: (for goodness sake spend more time on profitable opportunities that fit with my psyche)

Shame Percy won't read this seeing as I'm on his ignore list lol

[SCOTTY]

Thank you for taking the time in a nice way to share your perspective and for your constructive criticism RTM which I have taken on board. In some respects its only human nature that the very tough experiences, (scars permanently seared into our brain), we've been through mean we all see the same situation through a different set of lenses and as you allude too if people have seen appalling management practices during the GFC with finance companies sometimes its difficult not to be pre-disposed towards looking for problematic type lending, the type of concerns I've fully articulated earlier.

In much the same way I'd speculate that children who lost their parents in the Erebus disaster might have a pre-disposed aversion to AIR or those who've lost their fortune in a disease, drought or pestilence type situation with their own agri venture would not be favourablly disposed towards investing in a listed entity exposed to those risks.

Its not the stock for me and as you suggest it is time to lighten up and move on. The eventual losses from dairy won't be known for several years...predicting the future is a difficult and inexact science at the best of times.

Anyway my views are well known and I retain many of my concerns so its not the right stock for me. I look at the long game and see systemic losses flowing through to their balance sheet. Its worth remembering that the stock was only $1.00 in late October 2014 when dairy was in far more robust shape than the current dire state of the industry. Only time will tell how this plays out.
(Note to self: (for goodness sake spend more time on profitable opportunities that fit with my psyche)

Shame Percy won't read this seeing as I'm on his ignore list lol

And yet you claim to be a happy holder of PGW which apparently has a 20/25% exposure to dairy?

[SCOTTY]

See the posting by Denis on the PGW thread today

[Beagle]

And yet you claim to be a happy holder of PGW which apparently has a 20/25% exposure to dairy?

You're either comfortable with the way a company is managed or you're not.

[winner69]

There us a trading perspective to keep an eye on as well as the fundamental view.

It's all about market sentiment whether the fundamentals suck or a brillant. Charts measure that (degree of) market sentiment.


Keep an eye on the chart ....better for you today and tomorrow than taking solace from a Craig's report. They are only useful for looking back in a years time to see how good they were.

Bugger, today started out very well but it ends down at the close.

Keep watching that chart to see how if sentiment changes over the rest of the week

[pierre]

Bugger, today started out very well but it ends down at the close.

Keep watching that chart to see how if sentiment changes over the rest of the week

Not as bad as the big banks - ANZ down 57 cents and Westpac down 75cents today!

[couta1]

Bugger, today started out very well but it ends down at the close.

Keep watching that chart to see how if sentiment changes over the rest of the week

The NZX weekly bar graph gives you a big clue as to why it finished down albeit on one tiny trade.