HGH - Heartland Group Holdings

[winner69]

Heartland guidance for 2016 is $51m - $55m. This includes an allowance for estimated impairments.

The $55m is 15% more than fy15. Very good seeing that 'includes an allowance for estimated impairments'

Just a guess but lets say that allowance is $5m

That would imply that without this allowance (there actually isn't a problem) NPAT for fy16 would be $60m - 25% up on fy15 ...hmm

Just throwing it out there.

[Beagle]

Roger, did you see dairy cows at their lowest price since 2009

http://www.stuff.co.nz/business/farm...els-since-2009

Mate its best if I pretend I see nothing...nothing at all

[mouse]

It seems only a short time ago I was suggesting we might see a dollar a share by Christmas. But I never thought it might be Christmas 2015! Enjoy today, more info tomorrow.

[DoctorG]

I think theses are a good longterm prospect over five years.
Is it a good time to buy now or wait a few months?

[percy]

I think there was more than just market weakness,and being caught up with the Australian Banks' need for more capital,working against HNZ today.The aggressive selling looks to me as though a large margin trader has been caught out,and is having their position sold.

[percy]

With over $20 billion of rural loans, it was refreshing to read ASB's Chief Executive Barabara Chapman's comments this morning.
"Most farmers in our experience have gone through these cycles well,with a bit of help from their bank."
"I don't expect it to be any different this time."

[iceman]

Yes ASB reported increased cash earnings up 9% to $846M. Biggest profit ever for ASB. They've grown their home mortgage book 5% to 43.7 Billion and their Business & Rural lending book up a massive 14% to $ 20 Billion.
But impairments for bad debts have also increased from $56 Million to $89 Million. While a significant amount, it is not huge in the scheme of things and ASB seems to maintain confidence in the rural sectors. This is good news, albeit still early in the dairy downturn cycle.

[winner69]

Yes ASB reported increased cash earnings up 9% to $846M. Biggest profit ever for ASB. They've grown their home mortgage book 5% to 43.7 Billion and their Business & Rural lending book up a massive 14% to $ 20 Billion.
But impairments for bad debts have also increased from $56 Million to $89 Million. While a significant amount, it is not huge in the scheme of things and ASB seems to maintain confidence in the rural sectors. This is good news, albeit still early in the dairy downturn cycle.

Heartland probably have a 59% increase in bad debt expenses FY15 as well ....as you say early in the downturn cycle so lets hope not another 59% in fy16

As a matter of interest Heartland current provisions as % receivables lower than ASB -- benefit of being best in breed.

[iceman]

Heartland probably have a 59% increase in bad debt expenses FY15 as well ....as you say early in the downturn cycle so lets hope not another 59% in fy16

As a matter of interest Heartland current provisions as % receivables lower than ASB -- benefit of being best in breed.

No doubt that impairments need to be watched very carefully in the next few HNZ results.
Here is a bit more from the ASB result:

" Impairment losses on loans jumped 59%, albeit off a low base, to $89 million. CEO Barbara Chapman attributed this to increases across all lending portfolios. Despite the strong annual results, things slowed down in the second-half for ASB. Cash net profit slipped 3% from the second-half of the bank's 2014 financial year to $417 million. (Annual cash profit was up 9% to $846 million). The drop was attributed to rising impairments and operating expenses.

And the second-half figures show home loan growth of 4% - in line with system. However, business and rural lending growth still grew above system at 7%, and customer deposits increased 9%.

The second-half also delivered a lower net interest margin, a 50 basis points increase in expense to income ratio to 39.2%, and a $15 million rise in loan impairments due to an increase in rural lending provisioning. Impairment expense annualised as a percentage of average gross loans rose 5 basis points annually to 0.14%, and reached 0.16% in the second-half."

[Baa_Baa]

Watching from the sidelines, the chart is getting encouraging for lower SP buy-in/re-entry/accumulation, depending on ones motivations. The chart by itself won't make that happen, but the significant things seem to be:

- the 50/200EMA death cross happening now;
- SP below major support $1.12 100% retrace of the whole rally from 12 Jan 2015 which is now overhead resistance;
- that failed support at $1.12 'happens' to also be the 61.8% fib retrace of the entire move since 3 Sep 2014;
- only obvious price supports seem to be the horizontals at $1.01 and $0.9, and a downtrend support line around $1.08 which has offered 4 previous price supports.
- understandably the indicators are weak, though surprisingly RSI is still not fully oversold.