HGH - Heartland Group Holdings

[warthog]

The hog sees $1.08 as a long-term uptrend support. If that breaks…

Disc.: no holdings (yet)

[Hoop]

Watching from the sidelines, the chart is getting encouraging for lower SP buy-in/re-entry/accumulation, depending on ones motivations. The chart by itself won't make that happen, but the significant things seem to be:

- the 50/200EMA death cross happening now;
- SP below major support $1.12 100% retrace of the whole rally from 12 Jan 2015 which is now overhead resistance;
- that failed support at $1.12 'happens' to also be the 61.8% fib retrace of the entire move since 3 Sep 2014;
- only obvious price supports seem to be the horizontals at $1.01 and $0.9, and a downtrend support line around $1.08 which has offered 4 previous price supports.
- understandably the indicators are weak, though surprisingly RSI is still not fully oversold.

Chart becoming more encouraging for SP buyins.......Hmmmm just below any peak is encouraging (e.g "cheap shares") so a dip below $1.40 encouraged some to top up....Actually, the most discouraging time is the buy time, when pessimism has pushed a price into oversold territory. Not sure if HNZ is near this price territory.

I think theses are a good longterm prospect over five years.
Is it a good time to buy now... NO !!!! or wait a few months?

Maybe its at the bottom?.....perhaps but why risk it....The chances of an investor picking the bottom is minimal...therefore the risk is high...Only optimistic investors buy into downtrends the rest of us patiently wait until the storm passes...wearing rosy glasses can be dangerous to your capital wealth.

Below is a Phaedrus style chart...It's not posted to offend anyone, I've posted it to highlight the psychological behaviour of investors during a bear cycle..At the beginning of the HNZ bear cycle the business environment is still very buoyant and investors are very optimistic and willing to ride out Mr Markets paranoia ...as time goes on... one by one the investors see that the scaremongering rumours and Mr Markets paranoia were in actual fact real.. In the end there will be a bottom and when this happens this point could possibily show a lack of interest from investors..

The most fascinating thing with this chart is the buying and selling behaviour...Anxious holders endure the pain only to give when the share price falls to near a support (it's darkest before the dawn)..and with a rally the buyers wait too long and end up buy in near a resistance or a top....So the old saying goes.."Watch the price go up after I sell out"...or....."I brought in now watch it fall in price".....The buy sell signals which TA employs is based on investment behaviour....so when an investor quotes those old sayings (S)he knows subconsciously has this feeling that this buy/sell is wrong and these actions are emotionally driven and emotion overrides that investors personal investment goals and objectives....

This reinforces TA philosophy in showing buy/sell signals to the investor whose own judgement could be "clouded" due to pessimistic/optimistic environment (S)he is operating in thereby being reluctant (or in denial) to act upon any changes that occur. ..

Sometimes these denials are reinforced with the investor (unaware of the denial problem) hunting down information that only reinforces that denial and dismisses (sometimes with hostility) any other conflicting views...

Also Note: the very late MA50/ma200 crossover (death cross) indicator telling us that HNZ is in a downtrend and we should sell.

[winner69]

Hoop, one thing missing on that chart - around the $1.32 mark you should noted Roger selling with the narrative something like 'price going down seems to reflect my feelings that things aren't that rosy so its time to sell"

Sorry Roger but 22 cents X the heaps you had = A LOT of extra cash you have now.

[winner69]

Hoop, Mr P will be proud of you.

[Hoop]

Hoop, one thing missing on that chart - around the $1.32 mark you should noted Roger selling with the narrative something like 'price going down seems to reflect my feelings that things aren't that rosy so its time to sell"

Sorry Roger but 22 cents X the heaps you had = A LOT of extra cash you have now.

Yeah I suppose so...In hindsight I should've mentioned one or two who took the negative view .. just so to balance the post

Hoop, Mr P will be proud of you.

No copyright infringement notices in my "in box"...all's good

EDIT:
Good recovery today at the finish 111c up 1c... got a little scary for a while when it fell to 108.....Sadly the chart at the moment is terrible...HNZ really needs to level out and create a floor at around 110 to regain investor confidence..

[mouse]

Where is Percy????????????

[Joshuatree]

A bit hysterical there mouse.He posted this am and i suggest if you need a fix from the big cheese ,pm him.

[iceman]

Where is Percy????????????

Last seen attending his orchards ������

[percy]

Where is Percy????????????

Thanks for asking Mouse.
I am still here "loitering with intent",and very much looking forward to HNZ's result on Tuesday.
Sometimes sharetrader can be a distraction,and so I have been spending less time on sharetrader,and more time doing my own research on companies.

[winner69]

Heartland share price looking OK today. Everybody seems happy. Will be a good end to the week I reckon but watch out next week ( or is the week after) when it all action.

Has to get back above that ominous 112 mark that Hoop talks about.

Just checking in while waiting for the man to finish cooking the fish and chips (crumbed tarakihi fillet today as oysters only on Nat Super pay days) and then I'll wander across the road and sit on the beach and enjoy them seeing its a bit warmer today.