Very pertinent stop loss. I remember the cannibal vampire squid (goldman sachs) and the ratings agencies; who can forget; what a team.As for changing their spots,ha. Do you own research on this and don't accept anyones glossy gospel that things are hunky dory.. These guys brought the world to its knees.
Here is my old linear regression channel chart for HNZ updated to today
Strategy is to trade the strong uptrends but when that uptrend breaks down take profits when the price falls below the bottom channel line. Real success using this strategy is discipline and selling when the chart says so.
All worked fine as the price rose to 141 - all honky dory. Wasn't really a worry as the price drifted down to 130. But it broke below 130 which gave a sell signal. I occasionally let these things run a bit (the old fake break out trick) and didn't sell.
The price recovered but at 133 it didn't break back into the channel. A real bad sign and a definite get out message at that time (131/132)
It couldn't be true. I believed my own bull**** - HNZ was going to 160 plus based on decent profits this year, reratings and flag poles and all sorts of things. I had fallen in love with this baby.
Things weren't too bad for a while as it drifted along around the 130 mark.
But the fall to 125 was real confirmation that this was going into a down trend. I sold a decent chunk of what I had. Lack of discipline and getting carried away with my own bull**** cost me - I had not taken all the profits I should have.
I still had hope. Stupid really holding any but I did. A large chunk of those remaining have been sold sub 120 - again not taking as much profit as I should have.
I still have a few which is real dumb - strategy was to ride a strong uptrend and make most of what was available, But not following that strategy and the lack of discipline has made a 40% gain since last August into only a 30% gain (if the ones left don't fall further). (dividends not count, they are a bonus)
I hate it when this happens. Sometimes you learn lessons the hard way winner. People may laugh at your charts and squiggly lines but heck they more often work than not. Yes winner, charts also beat that fabulous fundamental analysis you did.
I will keep the ones I have. They will become the platform for riding another uptrend if that ever happens again.
Last edited by winner69; 14-08-2015 at 08:37 PM.
“ At the top of every bubble, everyone is convinced it's not yet a bubble.”
Great review w69.KW seems to have it nailed down but its not my personality to be100% like that and there are less feel good surprises, excitement of the hunt etc. I want to keep trying and improve at it but also have a broader brush for other investing styles. Im still holding all my HNZ and next week will reveal if my strategy is right or not. HNZ is in my investment portfolio.If one does too many trades one will attract the IRD and be reclassified as a trader. I have small tax paying trading portfolio too.
Oh cool... thanks for the link.. I see they are making a movie of it... could be interesting... Brad Pitt and Beyonce et al. On second thoughts, oh no....
Still will be difficult to replicate the book with all its intrigue but I will have a watch when it does come out.
I intended to hold HNZ and most of my stocks for the long term but have been getting spooked and sold a large part of them earlier in the week. Half of my HNZ, SUM for good profits so happy in that respect. Things are definitely looking interesting at the moment though.
Cheers,
MPC
Here is my old linear regression channel chart for HNZ updated to today
Strategy is to trade the strong uptrends but when that uptrend breaks down take profits when the price falls below the bottom channel line. Real success using this strategy is discipline and selling when the chart says so.
All worked fine as the price rose to 141 - all honky dory. Wasn't really a worry as the price drifted down to 130. But it broke below 130 which gave a sell signal. I occasionally let these things run a bit (the old fake break out trick) and didn't sell.
The price recovered but at 133 it didn't break back into the channel. A real bad sign and a definite get out message at that time (131/132)
It couldn't be true. I believed my own bull**** - HNZ was going to 160 plus based on decent profits this year, reratings and flag poles and all sorts of things. I had fallen in love with this baby.
Things weren't too bad for a while as it drifted along around the 130 mark.
But the fall to 125 was real confirmation that this was going into a down trend. I sold a decent chunk of what I had. Lack of discipline and getting carried away with my own bull**** cost me - I had not taken all the profits I should have.
I still had hope. Stupid really holding any but I did. A large chunk of those remaining have been sold sub 120 - again not taking as much profit as I should have.
I still have a few which is real dumb - strategy was to ride a strong uptrend and make most of what was available, But not following that strategy and the lack of discipline has made a 40% gain since last August into only a 30% gain (if the ones left don't fall further). (dividends not count, they are a bonus)
I hate it when this happens. Sometimes you learn lessons the hard way winner. People may laugh at your charts and squiggly lines but heck they more often work than not. Yes winner, charts also beat that fabulous fundamental analysis you did.
I will keep the ones I have. They will become the platform for riding another uptrend if that ever happens again.
Geez winner you have gone from a glass half full to a glass bloody near empty over heartland...it sounds like hnz are broke... no money and on their last legs, so come monday im going to sell all of my heartland shares...the whole damn 110 of them...thanks for the heads up...much appreciated.......ha ha ha...now that the alcohol has worked thru the system and in the clear light of day things are looking better arent they Winner...hnz fundamental haven,t really changed that much and the divvy streams not bad...and if we see bargains on the sharmarket im sure hnz see the same
Yes ziggy - fundamentally heartland aint changed much. Growth slowing and maybe facing some headwinds in next year or two and possibly exposed to some write offs above average levels. Next year they will make between $50m and $60m and pay a divie.
I made no mention of them going broke. That post was mainly from a trade perspective (interest supported by strong fundamentals) - essentially trading the sentiment of the market. At the moment a bit negative.
But all its saying is that the market per see is disappointed with only $48m NPAT this year and it has concerns about the future (growth and write offs). The chart is really saying that Heartland isn't worth 1.4 book value (at 140) but is really only worth 1.1 times book value. That in itself is still quite a respectable valuation in the circumstances.
I patiently waited (ignored a lot the hype in the process) for the breakout at 92/93. Trade has been a success even though ill discipline reduced the profits. I had hoped that this trade might have lasted for years. It did not sobeit
Maybe another time. Waiting until Tuesday or when ever to see where my forecast NPAT fell short and looking forward to what Greensleeves has to say.
“ At the top of every bubble, everyone is convinced it's not yet a bubble.”
Originally Posted by Joshuatree
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