HGH - Heartland Group Holdings

[winner69]

My forecast for FY15 was $51m - came in at $48m. I expected more from HER and of course under forecast bad debts otherwise most of my other assumptions were about right.

Looking forward to FY16 main things are - HER apparently gaining momentum so I will factor into FY15. Bad debts can't possibly double again in FY16 as I feel there was a lot of fat was built into the FY15 numbers.

So with continued efficiencies and ongoing organic growth my forecast fit FY16 is $56m - $60m. That's an eps of 12.7 cents and a dividend of 9 cents,

Share price target in excess of $1.50 in a years time, even more if Jeff continues to ramp the undervalued stock story up.

Buying heaps at 112/113 yesterday to me was an even more compelling buy than it was at 92cents back last August or whenever it was. That was a great trade but ill discipline took some of profits away but not complaining.

Yes $1.50 on the cards ....yippee

I took Percy's advice - As always it is up to each of us to do our own research and invest accordingly

[jonu]

Just as expected. Nothing new except for a bit of tinkering around the edges to get to $48.2m

Even that Tier 2 stuff is not new. Love banks borrowing to give back to shareholders.

Underwhelming!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

So Winner, was this quote about holding the open down while you backed up the truck?

[winner69]

So Winner, was this quote about holding the open down while you backed up the truck?

No, it was in response to the stunning stunning crap that was posted.

Met expectations so what's 'stunning' ....nothing really new = 'underwhelming'

No ulterior motive

[Harvey Specter]

My forecast for FY15 was $51m - came in at $48m.

Impairments increased by $6m so if the economy had stayed strong for an extra couple of months you could have been right. Will those impairments be realised or will they supercharge next years profits when they reverse??

[winner69]

Impairments increased by $6m so if the economy had stayed strong for an extra couple of months you could have been right. Will those impairments be realised or will they supercharge next years profits when they reverse??

I reckon supercharge might be the key word in that statement.

[Harvey Specter]

I reckon supercharge might be the key word in that statement.

Fingers crossed - I'm locked and loaded.

Auditors are a conservative bunch so don't think it would have been hard to convinced them to increase the impairment with whats been going on in the world (and NZ).

[winner69]

A bit mischievous there winner ! They will reduce Tier 1 capital and issue some Tier 2 capital but regulatory minimum capital ratios will reduce only from the very healthy 12.9% to 12.5%. Pretty healthy don't you think ?

Iceman, what form do you think this Tier 2 capital will take?

[Hoop]

Rallied off a low point 108c (is it bottom?) to be at 115c up 2c at time of posting.
HNZ still in downtrend and trying to regain status back into the downtrending channel.
One buy signal triggered on medium term daily chart.. breaking 112c resistance (one swallow doesn't make a summer).
MACD crossing today (buy signal in the margin of error)
DMI closing but haven't crossed.
117c Resistance is a hurdle then all the EMA's +119c resistance........A lot of work still to be done before risk is lowered and mass buy signals

Still a terrible chart but looking a lot better than it was as most indicators have fired buy signals on the very short term hourly chart (not shown)... Short term moves do not always signal a medium or long term move.

[Beagle]

Impairments increased by $6m so if the economy had stayed strong for an extra couple of months you could have been right. Will those impairments be realised or will they supercharge next years profits when they reverse??

Agreed. But Far more likely they'll simply be reallocated against a different section of the loan book...you know where...

[nextbigthing]

Agreed. But Far more likely they'll simply be reallocated against a different section of the loan book...you know where...

The dividend portion