HGH - Heartland Group Holdings

[Beagle]

Off 4 traders based on current prices and consensus EPS for 2016 stocks
ANZ PE 10.6
NAB PE 12.2
BEN PE 11.2
WPC PE 12.2
BOQ PE 11.4

Consensus EPS for HNZ for FY16 11.0 cps...pick whatever PE you think is appropriate, at $1.17 it trades on a PE of 10.64 - Decide for yourself if you think its under-priced.

Disc I am still on the side-lines and while its fair to say dairy isn't as bleak as it was they're not out of the woods yet with an average loan value to dairy farmers in the 60% plus range...what banking guru ever thought it a good idea to let their average LVR to this sector get into the 60% plus range goodness only knows ?

[winner69]

One way of adjusting for dividends is to take them off all the prices before it went ex.
And Attachment 7659 is what the chart looks like for HNZ, using dividend-adjusted prices as above.

The HNZ price (1.16) sits between the 50 and 200 day SMAs (1.11 and 1.19)

The mid-point PE over the past 5 years is about 11.5. If 2016 earnings are 11.5cps, per HNZ forecast, that gives a value of $1.32

IMO 11.5 is too low a PE for HNZ.

That Sentiment Line is interesting

Is it the calculation you have shown as a % (Rhs)?

Where did you pick up the concept?

Always learning

[banter]

That Sentiment Line is interesting

Is it the calculation you have shown as a % (Rhs)?

Where did you pick up the concept?

'Sentiment' here is the % by which the 50 day MA is greater than or less than the 200. The green line is the NZ50 sentiment.
Both plotted on the RHS.

HNZ sentiment has just turned - it has stopped falling and started rising. The 'sentiment' chart tends to follow long smooth many-month cycles - not sure if it is tradeable though.

Home grown idea.

[janner]

Mate he has been excited and very well positioned with HNZ for a very long time :-)

Percy and I ( Sounds very Regal ).. Have been into HNZ since the beginning .. Along with others..

Sold half a week or so ago which returned ALL of my original investment.. :-))))

Due to not feeling happy with the current market. ( Still not happy with the current market ) ..

However.. !!!.. I am sitting uncomfortably with the thought of selling down HNZ..

Made even more uncomfortable having the feeling that the right thing was done.. :-)))

That is the market :-))))

Aye perc ??

[percy]

Percy and I ( Sounds very Regal ).. Have been into HNZ since the beginning .. Along with others..

Sold half a week or so ago which returned ALL of my original investment.. :-))))

Due to not feeling happy with the current market. ( Still not happy with the current market ) ..

However.. !!!.. I am sitting uncomfortably with the thought of selling down HNZ..

Made even more uncomfortable having the feeling that the right thing was done.. :-)))

That is the market :-))))

Aye perc ??

Through lack of interest I have stopped reading all the negative news about,China,Greece,Europe,USA,Aussie mining etc.
OK, the Aussie banks are having to raise capital, and have other challenges that HNZ do not have.
Latest Free Trade deal will help NZ, and so the future looks great.My NZ shares are going great guns,with more and more increasing dividends hitting my bank a/c.Last week HNZ,today AWK,next week SKL,MEL, and EBO.
I rough guide of how I am tracking is the ST NZ competition.I am 21st up 14.78%,and in the Aussie competition I am 17th up over 20%..That beats fixed interest."Better to own the bank, than having money in the bank"...lol.

[Joshuatree]

One frozen kangaroo tail will be shipped to your address. What does that mean? Picture a kangaroo without one.

[iceman]

Percy and I ( Sounds very Regal ).. Have been into HNZ since the beginning .. Along with others..

Sold half a week or so ago which returned ALL of my original investment.. :-))))

Due to not feeling happy with the current market. ( Still not happy with the current market ) ..

However.. !!!.. I am sitting uncomfortably with the thought of selling down HNZ..

Made even more uncomfortable having the feeling that the right thing was done.. :-)))

That is the market :-))))

Aye perc ??

Yes it sure has been a good ride. I was there with you before it became Heartland. I have been though a very similar process to you. Back in May I sold a reasonable part of my NZX portfolio due to uneasy feeling about the market. This included a large chunk of my HNZ shares. I never felt good about it so bought them back in September, luckily for about 14c less than I sold them for and while they were still CD. I feel much better having them all back as I see no reason whatsoever not to hold HNZ as a significant part of my portfolio.
I am not concerned about dairy slow down having a major effect on HNZ as it is a small part of their loan book. Rest of the loan book is good and growing and I have little doubt we will see ongoing growth through acquisitons. Market action this week supports that view.

[Hoop]

One way of adjusting for dividends is to take them off all the prices before it went ex.
And Attachment 7659 is what the chart looks like for HNZ, using dividend-adjusted prices as above.

The HNZ price (1.16) sits between the 50 and 200 day SMAs (1.11 and 1.19)

The mid-point PE over the past 5 years is about 11.5. If 2016 earnings are 11.5cps, per HNZ forecast, that gives a value of $1.32

IMO 11.5 is too low a PE for HNZ.

Hmm interesting sentiment line Banter...yes you can have fun making homegrown sentiment indicators

Low PE??? ...It's a "thing" with Banking Institutions ..During healthy times most banks seem to always be below the market PE average..as an example ANZ is currently around 11.2 and its shareprice has bounced around a bit but overall has gone no where for the last 3 years even with record profits


One way of adjusting for dividends is to take them off all the prices before it went ex. Yes that's the accepted rule..

Some charting programs have an optional tick box for adjustments (some don't work)...I find this valuable as most chart data by default don't adjust and TA indicators can get horribly screwed up and can have lasting effects

This may be a personal thing but over the years I have been stuffed up with adjusting prices with div payouts which has cost me money...so I have changed my mind with adjustments...
With splits or other such artificial price movements I still adjust..


But now I view all the company's one off capital losses as non adjustable ...

Whether it was fines or a victim of fraud or any other reason for a one off capital loss that doesn't affect the income stream we all don't adjust for these events so why should we adjust the price with a capital loss one off event such as payout to shareholders...

I have found in the past that dividends don't trigger sell signals in a healthy environment...if they do then Mr Market takes the view that the company could be paying out too much.. A no growth company usually display high dividends with sell signals these unadjusted sell signals are usually genuine as the high yielding low growth company looses its attractiveness and investor momentum for a few weeks after going Ex Div

But each to their own..that why there's an adjustment option box

[winner69]

Through lack of interest I have stopped reading all the negative news about,China,Greece,Europe,USA,Aussie mining etc.

Just for you percy
http://www.smh.com.au/money/investin...01-gjyqrz.html

Main point is -

The sharemarket loves a good worry. The best bull runs climb what has been called a wall of worry. They carry on irrespective of whatever the economic challenge, real or imagined, is lobbed before them.

It's when the market runs out of things to worry about that you need to, well, worry. It's in trouble then because complacency about realistic valuations has set in.

[tim23]

I still reckon the reverse mortgage business and Harmoney share give this stock growth appeal plus a reliable dividend, perfect in my book!