HGH - Heartland Group Holdings

[winner69]

Roger says " I think its useful to have an peek into the abyss ......."

I agree. Investors need to look and consider both the good and the bad and even the ugly - and weigh up for themselves what each means

(Hope one of those >$10m dairy loans don't fall into the abyss)

[stoploss]

Roger says " I think its useful to have an peek into the abyss ......."

I agree. Investors need to look and consider both the good and the bad and even the ugly - and weigh up for themselves what each means

(Hope one of those >$10m dairy loans don't fall into the abyss)

Any idea how many of their loans are to A2 farmers ...they're going great guns ....

[nextbigthing]

$1.60 by Christmas was the word on the street when it was 2 months until Christmas, and the shareprice was approx $1.25.

35c appreciation in 60 days, close to half a cent per day.

Now it's hovering around $1.30 with close to only 30 days until Christmas, that's a 30c appreciation in 30 days, almost one cent per day!

Ie the rate of appreciation of the HNZ shareprice has doubled in this time, from 0.5c to 1c per day.

What a great opportunity!

[kiora]

This is how I also see it. Reserve bank are forecasting a potential 18% average sector credit losses in a protracted downturn for dairy, (dairy stay's under $5 kilo for four years). This would translate to the potential for approx. $37m in losses at face value for HNZ ($207m x 18%) if things go really bad for the sector, (nobody can be sure whether they will or won't), based on average loan to valuation ratio's for the sector but seeing as it would appear HNZ's loans are at the higher end of the LVR spectrum in a worse case dairy situation losses for HNZ could be higher, exacerbated by sharp potential continuing declines in dairy farm values. That said spread the loss recognition over a number of years and its certainly manageable but nonetheless I think cautious people might like to consider this apparent headwind in their thinking. Optimists will be hoping for a recovery in dairy prices next year, as I am because its good for the economy as a whole as well as our hard working dairy farmers. Nonetheless I think its useful to have an peek into the abyss and an estimation of how bad the sector losses could be in a worst case scenario and the Reserve Bank obviously also thinks so too.

Anecdotal evidence would suggest it will be worst case scenario

[Fisherking]

For what it's worth, I've been trying to purchase this stock for around 8 days now by placing orders each night a few cents below the current asking price. 8 days in and i'm still waiting.

Very strong demand, think i'm going to have to bite the bullet.

[janner]

For what it's worth, I've been trying to purchase this stock for around 8 days now by placing orders each night a few cents below the current asking price. 8 days in and i'm still waiting.

Very strong demand, think i'm going to have to bite the bullet.

DYOR..

If you think it is worth buying... BUY !!!..

Applies to all of your purchases..

And sales.. !!!.

[tim23]

For what it's worth, I've been trying to purchase this stock for around 8 days now by placing orders each night a few cents below the current asking price. 8 days in and i'm still waiting.

Very strong demand, think i'm going to have to bite the bullet.

Assuming you want to own the stock as an investment then simply pay the market price if you are looking to speculate try the ASX mining sector and throw a dart!

[tim23]

Fisherking - Assuming you want to own the stock as an investment then simply pay the market price if you are looking to speculate try the ASX mining sector and throw a dart!

[trader_jackson]

For what it's worth, I've been trying to purchase this stock for around 8 days now by placing orders each night a few cents below the current asking price. 8 days in and i'm still waiting.

Very strong demand, think i'm going to have to bite the bullet.

Sometimes you have to pay a premium for a premium stock...

I'm certainly not expecting to it go down, aussie banking sector has recovered strongly this week, CBA almost over $80 mark again with ANZ etc doing well... keep trying to 'pick it' doesn't usually work. I brought in August at $1.12, and although at the time it went all the way down into the mid $1.0x's, and a friend brought in at $1.09 a couple of days after me, I am still over the moon with my $1.12 buy which included a 'bonus' 4.5c dividend reinvested at $1.11... Its looking pretty good now and the only thing I would have done different was buy more!

[Baa_Baa]

Sometimes you have to pay a premium for a premium stock...

Sometime maybe, but if you're patient you can most times buy premium at discount prices. That time might be over for HNZ in the meantime after recent price weakness and increasing price strength. The question is really whether you're prepared to time your buys (and sells) or whether you just want to be in right now regardless of the SP.