So at 30-Jun-15 HNZ had $2,862M07 of receivables and they said that 7.6% of that was dairy related.
Now 7.6% could be as much as 7.6499999999999999999999999999% really
so that could be as much as
$218M95
of dairy loans [or $217.52 if you want to use the 7.6% as is].
Now the reserve bank estimates in their most severe scenario from the recent Financial Stability Report that losses associated with those loans would be 14% of the value of said loans which is:
$30M65
Some on this channel have mentioned an 18% loss or an opinion that it will be worse for HNZ, so with that much more severe 18% we would have:
$39M41.
So just for fun let us assume that HNZ in FY15 impaired that $39M41 of dairy in addition to the $775K of dairy that they actually did.
[Note: total across the board impairment expense was $12M11 for FY15].
Profit would not have been flash at:
$8M75.
Assuming that all loans were through the bank bit then Tier 1 capital would have dropped to
$301M
and the capital adequacy ratio to
11.5% (still 1% above the 10.5% buffer limit).
But in reality, impairment is based on the reality of what is actually happening on the ground and there is more to HNZ than just dairy.
The future looks interesting
: full of swings and roundabouts, snakes and ladders, abysses and whatever the opposite of abysses are
.
And on a related note: The 61% LVR ratio, does anybody actually know how much the value part has changed since June?
E&OE - I have been known to get things wrong.
Best Wishes
Paper Tiger
PS If you need some bedtime reading, look out for banks first quarter disclosure statement, coming soon.
Bookmarks