HGH - Heartland Group Holdings

[Snow Leopard]

I see two problems hanging around waiting for the price to come to you:

1/ It may never happen.
2/ If it does happen you may end up with a partially filled order on which you have to pay the minimum brokerage - so what you going to do then?

Personally I buy if I believe there is sufficient depth on the sell side, at or below the price I am willing to pay, that I can get at least $10,000 straight away when the order goes in.
And even that does not always work. I have had the market move sufficiently that I have ended up on the buy side with some bot feeding me shares in $80 lots and then your inbox ends up stuffed with buy-notice emails.

So whatever your reasoning if the current price is right go buy them.

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

Disc: This my opinion for any share not specifically HNZ

[Snow Leopard]

So at 30-Jun-15 HNZ had $2,862M07 of receivables and they said that 7.6% of that was dairy related.
Now 7.6% could be as much as 7.6499999999999999999999999999% really
so that could be as much as
$218M95
of dairy loans [or $217.52 if you want to use the 7.6% as is].

Now the reserve bank estimates in their most severe scenario from the recent Financial Stability Report that losses associated with those loans would be 14% of the value of said loans which is:
$30M65

Some on this channel have mentioned an 18% loss or an opinion that it will be worse for HNZ, so with that much more severe 18% we would have:
$39M41.

So just for fun let us assume that HNZ in FY15 impaired that $39M41 of dairy in addition to the $775K of dairy that they actually did.
[Note: total across the board impairment expense was $12M11 for FY15].

Profit would not have been flash at:
$8M75.

Assuming that all loans were through the bank bit then Tier 1 capital would have dropped to
$301M

and the capital adequacy ratio to
11.5% (still 1% above the 10.5% buffer limit).

But in reality, impairment is based on the reality of what is actually happening on the ground and there is more to HNZ than just dairy.

The future looks interesting : full of swings and roundabouts, snakes and ladders, abysses and whatever the opposite of abysses are .


And on a related note: The 61% LVR ratio, does anybody actually know how much the value part has changed since June?


E&OE - I have been known to get things wrong.

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

PS If you need some bedtime reading, look out for banks first quarter disclosure statement, coming soon.

[winner69]

So at 30-Jun-15 HNZ had $2,862M07 of receivables and they said that 7.6% of that was dairy related.
Now 7.6% could be as much as 7.6499999999999999999999999999% really
so that could be as much as
$218M95
of dairy loans [or $217.52 if you want to use the 7.6% as is].

Now the reserve bank estimates in their most severe scenario from the recent Financial Stability Report that losses associated with those loans would be 14% of the value of said loans which is:
$30M65

Some on this channel have mentioned an 18% loss or an opinion that it will be worse for HNZ, so with that much more severe 18% we would have:
$39M41.

So just for fun let us assume that HNZ in FY15 impaired that $39M41 of dairy in addition to the $775K of dairy that they actually did.
[Note: total across the board impairment expense was $12M11 for FY15].

Profit would not have been flash at:
$8M75.

Assuming that all loans were through the bank bit then Tier 1 capital would have dropped to
$301M

and the capital adequacy ratio to
11.5% (still 1% above the 10.5% buffer limit).

But in reality, impairment is based on the reality of what is actually happening on the ground and there is more to HNZ than just dairy.

The future looks interesting : full of swings and roundabouts, snakes and ladders, abysses and whatever the opposite of abysses are .


And on a related note: The 61% LVR ratio, does anybody actually know how much the value part has changed since June?


E&OE - I have been known to get things wrong.

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

PS If you need some bedtime reading, look out for banks first quarter disclosure statement, coming soon.

The immediate reaction would ouch and shar price might fall to say $1

But then relsaliation would hit home and the experts would say at least Heartland have bitten the bullet and wiped he slate clean.

That's great. Market is forward looking and with the dairy loans being non-recurring forecasted profits going forward will be $60m ....and the share price will rocket to $1.50 plus. That's how things work when the bad is non-recurring and forgotten.

(Ps for PT: after the horrendous write off equity rucked eh ,,,,so ongoing ROE will sour wot it. Another objective met)6

[iceman]

Maybe having cornerstone shareholders like Heartland and Trade Me will prove to be a great combination for Harmoney. This sure is an impressive start http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/n...ectid=11549647

[Beagle]

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/banking/ne...ectid=11549521

Hopes rise for dairy recovery next year. Not sure what they're basing that hope on but I thought shareholders might enjoy the read.

[winner69]

Full moon this week (in bth hemispheres) --- Heartland share price $1.35 plus, maybe $1.40

[winner69]

Sharechat (owns Sharetrader) just emailed me touting Heartlands on line call a/c at 3.6%

Good focused marketing

[Beagle]

Sharechat (owns Sharetrader) just emailed me touting Heartlands on line call a/c at 3.6%

Good focused marketing

Yep, had the same e.mail about 10 times now...IIRC I think it started off with 3.6% and no tricks or no traps, something like that, now no strings attached...maybe one or two of the main trading banks with their serious saver type products might have had a little word in HNZ's ear about the use of the word tricks ? Whatever the case may be, yes its a great call account rate.

[winner69]

Heartland says "Key drivers of growth for Heartland are GDP and employment

More good news today on that front


@ANZ_cambagrie: NZ migration booming. 6,200 in the month of October, 62k in the yr. That's a lot of demand for houses. Visitor arrivals up 9% on last year

Wow - HNZ shareprice heading to 140 in next day or 2

[Beagle]

Heartland says "Key drivers of growth for Heartland are GDP and employment

More good news today on that front


@ANZ_cambagrie: NZ migration booming. 6,200 in the month of October, 62k in the yr. That's a lot of demand for houses. Visitor arrivals up 9% on last year

Wow - HNZ shareprice heading to 140 in next day or 2

And more good news mate.
http://www.sharechat.co.nz/article/b...n-omf-sayshtml

Hopefully this is the start of a renewed upward trend and the worst for the industry is already behind them.