HGH - Heartland Group Holdings

[winner69]

1Q statements lack a lot of the detail of full year and only cover the bank, which is not yet all of HNZ.

But they have a net impairment expense of
$3,306K (with rural being $399K)
as opposed to this time last year when it was
$1,838K (with rural being $10K)

Interestingly 90+ day overdue loans on rural as gone from $17,904K to $11,704 in the last three months, possibly as a result of some/many them being reclassified given that Heartland are supporting dairy in these difficult times.

Whilst I think winner69 and his $60M is just winner69 being winner69 I am going to suggest that the $55M end of guidance is looking very achievable at the moment.

And so hot from the Paper Tiger Institute of Obscure Numbers:

Current value: $1.373
30-Jun-16 value: $1.428
30-Nov-16 value: $1.465

Assuming nothing special whatsoever happens. (i.e. No Tier2, no buybacks, no MTF, No smoking...)

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

So we could sort of say that Sharetrader guidance is $55m (your very achievable number) to $60m (extrapolation of Q1 plus a fraction more). We are after all the only ones who have come up with a number different from the mid point $53m

Easy to remember is $55m to $60m as well.

We will have to wait until after H1 comes out before Heartland raises their guidance -- next week at the ASM I will be the usual confirmation of current guidance

Hey Paper Tiger, how come you been 'unbanned' so quickly when apparently Roger won't be back until next year, if he decides to bother come back at all,

[K1W1G0LD]

Heartland no.1 in a class of 2 here.Despite Reserve bank reservations and new Regs.

http://www.stuff.co.nz/business/mone...tgages-doubles.


Quote: "Heartland has the lion's share of the half-billion dollar market, after buying out Sentinel last year".

[K1W1G0LD]

We all knew they were #1

Main point is 118% increase in loans

When the TV ads came out earlier this year Nicholas at HNZ couldn't contain himself when he told me they were so busy handling the response and that inquiries had more than doubled (I did post that)

So most inquiries converted into loans -- good eh

Yes , good to see them doing well in this one W69.

[winner69]

Heartland no.1 in a class of 2 here.Despite Reserve bank reservations and new Regs.

http://www.stuff.co.nz/business/mone...tgages-doubles.


Quote: "Heartland has the lion's share of the half-billion dollar market, after buying out Sentinel last year".

We all knew they were #1 kiwi

Main point is 118% increase in loans

When the TV ads came out earlier this year Nicholas at HNZ couldn't contain himself when he told me they were so busy handling the response and that inquiries had more than doubled (I did post that)

So most inquiries converted into loans -- good eh

Lets count the profits for now .... The capital requirements is not a real issue.

[percy]

Heartland no.1 in a class of 2 here.Despite Reserve bank reservations and new Regs.

http://www.stuff.co.nz/business/mone...tgages-doubles.


Quote: "Heartland has the lion's share of the half-billion dollar market, after buying out Sentinel last year".

Thank you for the link.
The brokers' research I have read on HNZ have all had concerns whether HNZ are gaining traction with RELs.
I think HNZ were disappointed themselves with the modest uptakes.
I always have posted that I thought HNZ were right to be in this sector, and the sector had great growth potential with NZders love of property, and an ageing population.
I knew they were working hard to promote RELs,and these latest excellent results are a very welcome surprise.
I think the momentum with REL growth will continue ,and this momentum will give HNZ more confidence to update their forecasts.
Brokers will view this momentum traction of RELs favourably,and I think they will upgrade their forecasts too.

[K1W1G0LD]

This is not a product I would be comfortable with Percy, but it seems more and more kiwi's are.
Yes, lets hope this success flows through in improved forecasts.

[winner69]

So we could sort of say that Sharetrader guidance is $55m (your very achievable number) to $60m (extrapolation of Q1 plus a fraction more). We are after all the only ones who have come up with a number different from the mid point $53m

Easy to remember is $55m to $60m as well.

We will have to wait until after H1 comes out before Heartland raises their guidance -- next week at the ASM it will be the usual confirmation of current guidance

How come you been 'unbanned' so quickly when apparently Roger won't be back until next year, if he decides to bother come back at all,

Update: Shsretrader FY16 earnings guidance for Heartland remains at $55m-$60m but now the top end is more likely than before.

Reason for change:

1- Bullish remarks from Percy - "I think the momentum with REL growth will continue ,and this momentum will give HNZ more confidence to update their forecasts."

2- Kiwigold hoping it will lead to improved forecasts (C'mon kiwi, hope is not a strategy - it will lead to better earnings and better forecasts)

[percy]

K1W1GOLD.
I would be surprised if any sharetraders would be comfortable with an REL.No need for one.
Yet it is a product that suits, and will suit more and more people who have all their capital tied up in their home,which they neither want to sell or move out of.They just don't want to downsize or move into a retirement village.Wise, or stubborn old buggers, I will leave it to you to decide.We must remember it is their life,their capital and their choice.
Scotty did point out some time ago that property prices were increasing at a higher rate than the interest rate HNZ are charging on RELs.A very interesting exercise to do the figures if you can find time.Try it over a 10 year time frame.
The 90 year old traveller I admire,and she is the type of person who is finding a REL suits her.
Times change,my parents would neither have let me buy a car on HP.

[iceman]

There is mention of some people taking temporary loans to renovate their houses before the move out and into retirement homes. While these would be fairly short term loans I think there is lots of people out there that would be well advised to do this. Many have lived in their homes for decades with little or no work other than normal maintenance. The properties when sold, look dated and fetch low prices. That is one small example of an opportunity for REL's that I had not really thought about. Bought a rental property myself a couple of years ago from a lovely old couple that were moving into a retirement home. The would have increased the property value quite significantly by modest renovations and a loan like this would have been perfect.

But you are right Percy that times have and are changing very fast and it is getting more and more common that people live a long healthy enjoyable lives in retirement. It costs money and people are increasingly comfortable with using their assets themselves to support an enjoyable lifestyle, rather than leave them for offsprings. Good on them I say.

[Southern_Belle]

K1W1GOLD.
I would be surprised if any sharetraders would be comfortable with an REL.No need for one.
Yet it is a product that suits, and will suit more and more people who have all their capital tied up in their home,which they neither want to sell or move out of.They just don't want to downsize or move into a retirement village.Wise, or stubborn old buggers, I will leave it to you to decide.We must remember it is their life,their capital and their choice.
Scotty did point out some time ago that property prices were increasing at a higher rate than the interest rate HNZ are charging on RELs.A very interesting exercise to do the figures if you can find time.Try it over a 10 year time frame.
The 90 year old traveller I admire,and she is the type of person who is finding a REL suits her.
Times change,my parents would neither have let me buy a car on HP.

Agreed that times are a changing Percy. My fathers financial advice to me "before you spend a dollar, earn two."

The "stubborn old buggers" like my father, had their financial outlook shaped by the depression, world wars, the need to be frugal and passing inheritance to the next generation. They are a dying breed and increasingly, people are prepared to pay a premium for quality and spend the kids inheritance to provide that quality.

If a REL allows them to do this then why not pay a premium. By the time they calculate the fees associated with downsizing (legal, estate agents, moving costs) and the costs of a retirement village, they are likely to be better off staying put & paying for the privilege.

REL's, in my opinion will become the norm and HNZ and their shareholders will be well positioned".