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  1. #10261
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    Quote Originally Posted by iceman View Post
    Do you care janner or will you just sail through it all as I suspect you will !! Agree with Percy going on the phone. Just hope he can hear them correctly on the other end :-)
    Spot on iceman.. However I do like your word sail.. Have been pondering another yacht for some time.. Wondering whether I am getting to old to handle one Certainly able to afford it . :-)))) Waiting with bated breath to hear from Percy..

  2. #10262
    ShareTrader Legend Beagle's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by janner View Post
    Over half the days turn over in the last minute... Nothing steady about that..

    Ramping ??????

    Beginning to defy logic..

    Time for Percy to get on the phone ..
    As near as I can figure it there was a substantial disturbance in the NZX50 yesterday with index rebalancing. With Rod Drury in his "infinite wisdom" deciding that XRO should exit the NZX on the face of it PPH simply replaced it and that was that, (apart from the obvious displeasure of XRO shareholders and pleasure of PPH holders)...but my sense is there is more to it than that.
    It looked to me that a large number of stocks in the NZX50 came under serious buying pressure in the last 15 minutes of that closing match process. I suspect there is far more to it that simply PPH replacing XRO in the index and that holdings by tracker funds following that index had to rebalance quite a number of their holdings due to the substantial market capitalization difference between XRO and PPH. This is a highly irregular situation because normally the size of the incoming stock coming into the NZX50 is slightly more than the lowest former ranking NZX50 stock. That's my theory on it anyway but its just a theory and I'm not pretending to know exactly how these index rebalancing process's work. I suspect that any holder who sold at $2.14 on Friday can thank Rod Drury for his kindness and I would put a cider or two on normal market pricing resuming next week.
    Last edited by Beagle; 16-12-2017 at 08:30 AM.
    No butts, hold no mutts, (unless they're the furry variety).

  3. #10263
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    Quote Originally Posted by janner View Post
    Spot on iceman.. However I do like your word sail.. Have been pondering another yacht for some time.. Wondering whether I am getting to old to handle one Certainly able to afford it . :-)))) Waiting with bated breath to hear from Percy..
    With all the $2.14 large trades crossing at, and after closing, HBL may not "yet" be aware of who is buying/selling.
    Ringing on Monday I would most probably get,"we will have to wait to receive details of buy/sell from Link Market Services, before we know ourselves."
    Or else, should they know,they may not be in the position to tell me.They may have to inform NZX?
    HBL is trading above Craigs,FNZC and Hobson Wealth's target prices,so it does not appear to be in reaction to an urgent upgrade buy from these brokers.
    Often after a rights issue or placement, we see the share price come back towards the placement/rights issue price.This has not been the case with HBL's rights issue.
    Like every one else, I may just have to wait and see.
    However like Iceman and Janner, I will continue to enjoy sailing along with the strong tail wind.

    ps.Since writing this I notice Beagle's post.Makes sense to me.
    Last edited by percy; 16-12-2017 at 08:29 AM.

  4. #10264
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    Didn't Mr Orr get a big cheque from Grant Robertson yesterday?

  5. #10265
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    I am not selling. This is a solid stock which I think will do what it says. Overprice at 2.14 but has a floor at2.02 I think. It is an example of why owning tracker funds have a risk. Market usually goes too high at xmas.

  6. #10266
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    Quote Originally Posted by Beagle View Post
    As near as I can figure it there was a substantial disturbance in the NZX50 yesterday with index rebalancing. With Rod Drury in his "infinite wisdom" deciding that XRO should exit the NZX on the face of it PPH simply replaced it and that was that, (apart from the obvious displeasure of XRO shareholders and pleasure of PPH holders)...but my sense is there is more to it than that.
    It looked to me that a large number of stocks in the NZX50 came under serious buying pressure in the last 15 minutes of that closing match process. I suspect there is far more to it that simply PPH replacing XRO in the index and that holdings by tracker funds following that index had to rebalance quite a number of their holdings due to the substantial market capitalization difference between XRO and PPH. This is a highly irregular situation because normally the size of the incoming stock coming into the NZX50 is slightly more than the lowest former ranking NZX50 stock. That's my theory on it anyway but its just a theory and I'm not pretending to know exactly how these index rebalancing process's work. I suspect that any holder who sold at $2.14 on Friday can thank Rod Drury for his kindness and I would put a cider or two on normal market pricing resuming next week.
    Looks as if you were correct ..

    Still a very good price with a good number going through already .

  7. #10267
    ShareTrader Legend Beagle's Avatar
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    Yeap I hear its also common for the index tracker funds to mop up any shares they are missing from the rebalance on the Monday following the big closing Friday match process. We'll know where the true price is by mid week I would say. Possibly a tad over full value at the current price but then again its getting quite hard to find any real value on the NZX so probably a reasonable hold for 2018 but I don't think total shareholder return next year is going top anything like what it was this year.
    Last edited by Beagle; 18-12-2017 at 01:57 PM.
    No butts, hold no mutts, (unless they're the furry variety).

  8. #10268
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    Quote Originally Posted by Beagle View Post
    Yeap I hear its also common for the index tracker funds to mop up any shares they are missing from the rebalance on the Monday following the big closing Friday match process. We'll know where the true price is by mid week I would say. Possibly a tad over full value at the current price but then again its getting quite hard to find any real value on the NZX so probably a reasonable hold for 2018 but I don't think total shareholder return next year is going top anything like what it was this year.
    There are lots of people retiring and selling their Auckland houses. They need somewhere to put their money and given interest rates are so pitiful, they will look to the stock market as an option for some or all of those funds. Even tho it seems expensive......their options aren't very attractive. So I see them continuing to underpin our sharemarket.

  9. #10269
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    Quote Originally Posted by RTM View Post
    There are lots of people retiring and selling their Auckland houses. They need somewhere to put their money and given interest rates are so pitiful, they will look to the stock market as an option for some or all of those funds. Even tho it seems expensive......their options aren't very attractive. So I see them continuing to underpin our sharemarket.
    Agreed and one of the key themes I am working on for 2018 and beyond is interest rates staying very very low for the foreseeable future which will underpin the attractiveness of our high dividend yield market.
    No butts, hold no mutts, (unless they're the furry variety).

  10. #10270
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    Hey Winner, do you think your old GDT auction price and HBL SP correlation theory still holds any water ? Maybe $2.14 was the top...for a while...
    https://www.nbr.co.nz/article/dairy-...march-b-211376
    Last edited by Beagle; 20-12-2017 at 09:54 AM.
    No butts, hold no mutts, (unless they're the furry variety).

  11. #10271
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    Quote Originally Posted by Beagle View Post
    Hey Winner, do you think your old GDT auction price and HBL SP correlation theory still holds any water ? Maybe $2.14 was the top...for a while...
    https://www.nbr.co.nz/article/dairy-...march-b-211376
    Not as strong as it was a while ago but then this what you would expect as the HBL share price behaviour is defying all sort of logic as it soars to record highs and outrageous valuations.

    Punters can’t understand why Bitcoins are worth so much - maybe same applies to Heartland,

    But we’ll live with that - esp if HBL goes to $2.50 over the holiday break.
    “Just consider that maybe the probability of you being wrong is higher than you think.”

  12. #10272
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    Quote Originally Posted by RTM View Post
    There are lots of people retiring and selling their Auckland houses. They need somewhere to put their money and given interest rates are so pitiful, they will look to the stock market as an option for some or all of those funds. Even tho it seems expensive......their options aren't very attractive. So I see them continuing to underpin our sharemarket.
    That could be an influence - especially if they are moving into a retirement village and if the children or grandchildren already have their own homes. Otherwise buying a smaller but newer home won't leave an awful lot of change from big but old house. Also The Bank of Mom and Pop is often an even bigger part behind many people being able to afford a deposit for a first house these days.

  13. #10273
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    Quote Originally Posted by winner69 View Post
    Not as strong as it was a while ago but then this what you would expect as the HBL share price behaviour is defying all sort of logic as it soars to record highs and outrageous valuations.

    Punters can’t understand why Bitcoins are worth so much - maybe same applies to Heartland,

    But we’ll live with that - esp if HBL goes to $2.50 over the holiday break.
    You said it mate. Price does seem very fulsome on a trailing PE of 17...forward PE is probably as high as 16 given all the shares they've issued.
    Maybe Heartland are about to launch their own cryptocurrency and existing shareholders will get in at the ground floor on another rights issue
    HBL have had a great 12 months, up 41% from $1.47 a year ago plus dividends plus two lots of heavily discounted rights issues, sees most long term holders nab more than a 50% return overall...and all that on ~ 10% EPS growth...hmmm
    Last edited by Beagle; 20-12-2017 at 05:31 PM.
    No butts, hold no mutts, (unless they're the furry variety).

  14. #10274
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    UDC sale to HNA unlikely now
    http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-websit...300/272218.pdf

    Wonder if Heartland is part of ANZ's 'strategic options'

    Where's Jeff today?
    “Just consider that maybe the probability of you being wrong is higher than you think.”

  15. #10275
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    Quote Originally Posted by winner69 View Post
    UDC sale to HNA unlikely now
    http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-websit...300/272218.pdf

    Wonder if Heartland is part of ANZ's 'strategic options'

    Where's Jeff today?
    Thanks for the link W69.
    We continue to live in interesting times.

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