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  1. #6981
    Speedy Az winner69's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Yeshiva View Post
    hot off the press - record new car sales. One might raise conjecture this is better rather than worse news for Heartland.

    http://www.scoop.co.nz/stories/BU160...ial-demand.htm
    Yes good news, esp as most related to commercial vehicles - can we speculate that they got a decent share of any lending involved?

    Hope so

    Employment data out in next few minutes - prob show increased numbers in workforce and hopefully some wage inflation. That be good news as well
    Last edited by winner69; 03-02-2016 at 09:44 AM.
    “ At the top of every bubble, everyone is convinced it's not yet a bubble.”

  2. #6982
    On the doghouse
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    Default The Possum Theory of Risk

    Quote Originally Posted by Paper Tiger View Post
    So I have read all of Snoopy's original post and checked his figures and have no complaints there (though if anybody does want a good discussion of what are applicable inclusions and exclusions - do not phone me)...

    But...

    If UDC have a 1.43% impairment provision and Heartland have a 1.09% impairment provision then I do not see how the emphasised conclusion can be drawn from the data.

    Best Wishes
    Paper Tiger
    Quote Originally Posted by percy View Post
    Neither do I...lol.
    I have to admit I couldn't quite understand the post you both referred to either. This is a bit of a worry considering it was I that wrote it!

    So perhaps I should back track a bit, to a more easily understood piece of kiwi culture: "the possum theory of risk".

    The possum theory of risk goes like this.

    Scenario 1: You are driving along in your car and you see no possums, either the reflections of their eyeballs, or flattened on the road. Does this mean there was no risk, or does it mean that you just didn't see the possums?

    Scenario 2: You are driving along the road and you see lots of possum eyeball reflections at different stages, but you don't hit any. Do you see those possums as they scramble to the edge of the road for safety? Or are they frozen in the middle of the road caught in the headlights?

    Scenario 3: You are driving along the road, you see a few possum eyeballs and you hit a few possums. You might say that a dead possum is written off. But as a fresh kill, do you stop, put it in the back of the wagon and skin and boil up the carcass to at least get some return from the beast? And are you really a reckless driver for hitting so many possums? Or are you a supreme driver for only hitting one or two possums when there are so many out there?

    If this is all to cryptic for some of you, substitute 'bank manager' for driver, 'vulnerable loan' for possum, and 'impaired loan' for road kill possum and see where you get with the analogy !

    SNOOPY
    Last edited by Snoopy; 03-02-2016 at 10:17 AM.
    Watch out for the most persistent and dangerous version of Covid-19: B.S.24/7

  3. #6983
    ShareTrader Legend Beagle's Avatar
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    Given heightened market interest in the dairy sector in New Zealand, Heartland advised the market that its exposure to dairy is $218.0m which equates to 7.6% of its total lending book. The average loan to value ratio (LVR) for Heartland’s dairy exposures is 61%. However, it is important to note that LVRs are only one of the indicators of loan quality. Heartland expects a continuation of lower than historical higher milk pay-out levels, followed by a slow recovery. This will lead to an increase in farmers making operating losses. Heartland is well positioned to provide support for its dairy customers in the forthcoming year.
    Extract from 2015 annual report

    Yeshiva - In fairness to Winner69 and the likely direction of the dairy loan book I think its pretty clear providing ongoing support to loss making dairy farmers means the size of the loan book heads north. Whether that's at a rate faster than their overall loan book remains to be seen. HBL are on safe ground predicting a "slow" recovery in dairy prices, (slow is such a loose term it could be defined as anything from months to many more years). How many more years do you think they should support loss making dairy farmers ?
    Last edited by Beagle; 03-02-2016 at 09:43 AM.
    Ecclesiastes 11:2: “Divide your portion to seven, or even to eight, for you do not know what misfortune may occur on the earth.
    Ben Graham - In the short run the market is a voting machine but in the long run the market is a weighing machine

  4. #6984
    Speedy Az winner69's Avatar
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    Heartland says "Key drivers of growth for Heartland are GDP and employment"

    Great news then -

    unemployment rate falls to 5.3% (most gurus were expecting an increase). Lowest rate since 2009. And wage index up 1.5%

    Can we conjecture this leads to more household borrowing ---- through Heartland of course
    Last edited by winner69; 03-02-2016 at 09:53 AM.
    “ At the top of every bubble, everyone is convinced it's not yet a bubble.”

  5. #6985
    Speedy Az winner69's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by NZSilver View Post
    She's going to get cheap!
    How cheap nzsilver?
    “ At the top of every bubble, everyone is convinced it's not yet a bubble.”

  6. #6986
    Reincarnated Panthera Snow Leopard's Avatar
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    Thumbs up Notice that I am not using the B word

    Quote Originally Posted by Paper Tiger View Post
    {20-Jan-2016} Well it had to happen sometime - I sold a Heartland share (or two).

    I have finished a sell down of 35% of my HBL holding but currently I am intending to keep the remaining 65%.

    Whether it or SCL is now the biggest holding in my NZ portfolio will literally depend on the market price.

    Best Wishes
    Paper Tiger
    Beginning to think that the best thing to buy with the proceeds of my Heartland sell-down is Heartland !

    Best Wishes
    Paper Tiger
    om mani peme hum

  7. #6987
    percy
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    Quote Originally Posted by Paper Tiger View Post
    Beginning to think that the best thing to buy with the proceeds of my Heartland sell-down is Heartland !

    Best Wishes
    Paper Tiger
    You are not alone.!.....lol.

  8. #6988
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    Default are we there yet?

    Quote Originally Posted by Paper Tiger View Post
    Beginning to think that the best thing to buy with the proceeds of my Heartland sell-down is Heartland !

    Best Wishes
    Paper Tiger
    Yes, but is it time to? it is still red everywhere. Must be the Lunar New Year celebrations.
    Last edited by Cool Bear; 03-02-2016 at 03:32 PM. Reason: add the ?

  9. #6989
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    Quote Originally Posted by winner69 View Post
    How cheap nzsilver?
    Less than $1.10

  10. #6990
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    http://www.sharechat.co.nz/article/e...go-public.html

    Am I reading this right? potential for IPO for Harmoney? Could Heartland 'cash in'?

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