HGH - Heartland Group Holdings

[Baa_Baa]

Mate up to this point Its actually done well relative to most of the major Aussie banks. Have a look at the charts of ANZ, WBC and NAB since August 2015 ...tells quite an interesting story about the banking sector as a whole.

Maybe so, relative to other banks, but still a falling knife albeit heavily oversold on the chart. Perhaps this coming week it finds antigravity, perhaps not? You can see how it responds to the moving averages, but finding support below the 200MA is anyones guess. As long as the international markets are soft or falling, this 'bank' will track the trend.

Daily chart:
Attachment 7877

Weekly chart, was a sell three weeks ago.
Attachment 7876

Monthly chart.
Attachment 7878

jmo, dyodd
BAA

[nextbigthing]

I cannot seem to find this new announcement!

Sorry, it was but a wind up.

Nbt said that announcement was retracted - and replaced by the one that is now up on the NZX site

NBT is a liar.

[Raz]

Watch closely Dairy exposure with all the Banks, the first move to the exits by a Bank have started with one basically taking control of 35 dairy farms, freezing their accounts and requiring consulting on any expenditure moving forward , they have been advised they will be sold up by season end. The sell off alone could could reduce the market to 250-400$ per cow.

[blockhead]

Where have 35 farms been taken over Raz ?

[Beagle]

http://www.sharetrader.co.nz/showthr...r-dairy-issues

New Year and I'm trying to turn over a new leaf. Upon reflection in my time in Siberia I think what Percy suggested last year is fair and reasonable that we have a separate thread for the problems the dairy sector are posing to the banking sector as a whole. HNZ have only a moderate exposure. Its ANZ and Rabobank that are really worrying.

[winner69]

http://www.sharetrader.co.nz/showthr...r-dairy-issues

New Year and I'm trying to turn over a new leaf. Upon reflection in my time in Siberia I think what Percy suggested last year is fair and reasonable that we have a separate thread for the problems the dairy sector are posing to the banking sector as a whole. HNZ have only a moderate exposure. Its ANZ and Rabobank that are really worrying.

But Roger, Heartland shareholders need to keep abreast of 'dairy issues'

After all they have a $200m plus exposure to dairy loans and if you what you posted comes to fruition they could be a drag on Heartland's profits (and dividends) over the next year or so.

[Raz]

http://www.sharetrader.co.nz/showthr...r-dairy-issues

New Year and I'm trying to turn over a new leaf. Upon reflection in my time in Siberia I think what Percy suggested last year is fair and reasonable that we have a separate thread for the problems the dairy sector are posing to the banking sector as a whole. HNZ have only a moderate exposure. Its ANZ and Rabobank that are really worrying.

Ok it is Southland with high price inputs, clear area to begin with from a bank risk management exposure and the bank in not HNZ however have you considered...

If HNZ ended up having a substantially higher than average loss in regard its exposure would that be material to the share price? It seems interesting that one name comes up more often than not in discussions around acquiring market share they have taken on players no other bank wanted to retain or would fund.

Also has the total exposure increased materially given the banking community as a whole has increased, to this sector, facilities which total 4 Billion in the past season.

Simply that reflects funding working capital support, for now.

I think it all has the potential to at least increase share price volatility, that is where its relevance to HNZ certainly come in.

This is in similar vein to my original comments on Air NZ and see how the threat or risk of competition has cause some serious price volatility.

[winner69]

I reckon they will report H1 earnings as $25.8m which includes the $1m of non-recurring restructure costs they mentioned

Sets up a boomer H2 and I expect them to report $28.9m (+17%) for that half bringing FY to be $54.7m (+14%)

That's an eps of 11.5 cents on current number of shares so PE currently just over 10. Maybe the rerating down that often happens when capital restructuring takes place (more debt / less equity means higher risk for shareholders) is already underway in anticipation of the capital return.

I hope to be pleasantly surprised but doubt I will.

Hoping like hell they report something like $26m NPAT for H1

If not with the way the world is getting jitters about BANK stocks the Heartland share price could be hammered.

[winner69]

Ok it is Southland with high price inputs, clear area to begin with from a bank risk management exposure and the bank in not HNZ however have you considered...

If HNZ ended up having a substantially higher than average loss in regard its exposure would that be material to the share price? It seems interesting that one name comes up more often than not in discussions around acquiring market share they have taken on players no other bank wanted to retain or would fund.

Also has the total exposure increased materially given the banking community as a whole has increased, to this sector, facilities which total 4 Billion in the past season.

Simply that reflects funding working capital support, for now.

I think it all has the potential to at least increase share price volatility, that is where its relevance to HNZ certainly come in.

This is in similar vein to my original comments on Air NZ and see how the threat or risk of competition has cause some serious price volatility.

God post raz

Heartland wouldn't want 1 of those >$10m dairy loans to fall over would they.

[Yeshiva]

Wen I woke up at 6am, the clouds were touching the summit of the hills at the farms in the distance.

At 8am, the clouds had descended to around 25m from the top of the summit.

this is clear evidence that the sky is falling.

I have recited the shema relentlessly this morning to be on the safe side.