HGH - Heartland Group Holdings

[Joshuatree]

Prices hold despite dairy woes Heres some actual FACTS

Innuendo unsupported from an self appointed industry expert, chinese whispers. Really unsupportive of dairy farmers doing it tough in the down cycle. Bluebirdie of happiness at others expense.

[Beagle]

Could it be that its only recently banks have started to take a dim view on the outlook for dairy and its only recently that banks are starting to pile the pressure on ?
What would a leading farm broker know about listings for Africa anyway ?
http://www.interest.co.nz/rural-news...sector-diverse
Some interesting debate in there. Best to look historically or well into the future because anyone looking at the fundamentals of a dairy farm right now would have good reasons to be deeply depressed.
Most banks are subscribing to the "it'll all come right in the end" school of thought, the real question is why ?

[Raz]

Could it be that its only recently banks have started to take a dim view on the outlook for dairy and its only recently that banks are starting to pile the pressure on ?
What would a leading farm broker know about listings for Africa anyway ?
http://www.interest.co.nz/rural-news...sector-diverse
Some interesting debate in there. Best to look historically or well into the future because anyone looking at the fundamentals of a dairy farm right now would have good reasons to be deeply depressed.
Most banks are subscribing to the "it'll all come right in the end" school of thought, the real question is why ?

Well said, if i was involved in strategy in the US or EU I would aim to take out Fonterra & NZ Dairy given Fonterra's current debt levels and their current cost advantages, look at the lower cost structure they face, as an example the dutch farmers currently have interest rates in the range 1.5-1.75% compared to...plus advantages being in the EU captive M. They are never going to clear the shadow NZ farm stock for sale at current asking prices..current land prices is one of the elements making us unable to compete on price....if you haven't worked it out yet.. serious blood in the water for Dairy and wider rural communities is just a matter of time...flowing onto Banking....

[winner69]

....
Most banks are subscribing to the "it'll all come right in the end" school of thought, the real question is why ?

Because John Key says the outlook for dairying is good. Heartland have no need to worry

PM says European dairy production surge in 2015 a one-off; banks tell him they're being cautious; but a few very indebted farmers will go under; Govt not taking action on Fonterra's tougher payment terms for suppliers
http://www.interest.co.nz/news/80478...g-cautious-few

[winner69]

Well said, if i was involved in strategy in the US or EU I would aim to take out Fonterra & NZ Dairy given Fonterra's current debt levels and their current cost advantages, look at the lower cost structure they face, as an example the dutch farmers currently have interest rates in the range 1.5-1.75% compared to...plus advantages being in the EU captive M. They are never going to clear the shadow NZ farm stock for sale at current asking prices..current land prices is one of the elements making us unable to compete on price....if you haven't worked it out yet.. serious blood in the water for Dairy and wider rural communities is just a matter of time...flowing onto Banking....

Raz, Fonterra screwing contractors even more in the rural towns won't be helping will it

Your wider communities comment could be right

[Raz]

Because John Key says the outlook for dairying is good. Heartland have no need to worry

PM says European dairy production surge in 2015 a one-off; banks tell him they're being cautious; but a few very indebted farmers will go under; Govt not taking action on Fonterra's tougher payment terms for suppliers
http://www.interest.co.nz/news/80478...g-cautious-few

How do we know it will be a one off, big assumption. What about the US? In the end given where we are strategically positioned no other positive position/spin you can now take. Yep a strategy based on hope. I know for a fact the US Dairy industry would take the opportunity to break us, they have feared Fonterra for so long.

[macduffy]

I know for a fact the US Dairy industry would take the opportunity to break us, they have feared Fonterra for so long.

The US dairy industry, yes. Not so sure about the US banks who hold a good chunk of Fonterra's hefty debt.

[Joshuatree]

Tough times and some farmers unfortunately will have to sell in this down cycle. We all know Heartlands small % exposure here. Factor that into your risk /reward decisions, margin of safety and make an informed decision whether to hold sell or buy . Big picture;the banking sector globally under the pump atm , another thing to consider.

[Beagle]

Because John Key says the outlook for dairying is good. Heartland have no need to worry

PM says European dairy production surge in 2015 a one-off; banks tell him they're being cautious; but a few very indebted farmers will go under; Govt not taking action on Fonterra's tougher payment terms for suppliers
http://www.interest.co.nz/news/80478...g-cautious-few

Surely its not election year already

http://www.stuff.co.nz/business/farm...y+9+March+2016

Nearly 100 staff at Fonterra on over $500K...maybe its time for them to get real and see a drop in their heavily bloated salaries in line with the reduction in the dairy pay-out from $8.40 to $3.90 ? What's the bet if they did that fewer than a small handful would resign ?

[stoploss]

Surely its not election year already

http://www.stuff.co.nz/business/farm...y+9+March+2016

Nearly 100 staff at Fonterra on over $500K...maybe its time for them to get real and see a drop in their heavily bloated salaries in line with the reduction in the dairy pay-out from $8.40 to $3.90 ? What's the bet if they did that fewer than a small handful would resign ?

Roger if you do someone's accounts and for example say their business only made 100K this year as opposed to 200K the previous , do you halve your accountancy fees ?