HGH - Heartland Group Holdings

**Beagle** · 14-03-2016, 05:21 PM

Originally Posted by pierre

180 by Labour weekend

200 by Christmas

220 Waitangi Day

240 Easter

260 Anzac Day
etc

We need more public holidays - lol.

And $3.00 by Queens birthday 2017 ?

**BlackPeter** · 15-03-2016, 09:46 AM

Hmm - extrapolations are always right, until they are wrong. And they always are.

Don't want to rain into the parade ... and while I agree that HBL (as well as some of the Ossie banks) look currently still reasonably priced (i.e. in my view more worth than what the shares currently cost) ... there are as well some risks hanging around.

The (though moderate) exposure to the dairy industry didn't go away overnight, Harmony does not always get the best press, and not sure how long their growth curve continues ... and haven't heard for some time how the reverse mortgage business is doing.

Consensus forecast is currently $1.30 ($1.25 ... $1.35) and while analysts have a track record in underestimating HBL's future share price, do I think that they are closer to the mark than some of the predictions in this thread.

(edit)
Discl: holding HBL (and ANZ) and NOT expecting a (huge) capital gain, but holding them for a dividend much better than bonds or bank accounts can deliver these days;

**Raz** · 15-03-2016, 05:24 PM

Originally Posted by BlackPeter

Hmm - extrapolations are always right, until they are wrong. And they always are.

Don't want to rain into the parade ... and while I agree that HBL (as well as some of the Ossie banks) look currently still reasonably priced (i.e. in my view more worth than what the shares currently cost) ... there are as well some risks hanging around.

The (though moderate) exposure to the dairy industry didn't go away overnight, Harmony does not always get the best press, and not sure how long their growth curve continues ... and haven't heard for some time how the reverse mortgage business is doing.

Consensus forecast is currently $1.30 ($1.25 ... $1.35) and while analysts have a track record in underestimating HBL's future share price, do I think that they are closer to the mark than some of the predictions in this thread.

Discl: holding HBL (and ANZ) and for a (huge) capital gain, but for a dividend much better than bonds or bank accounts can deliver these days;

All good, just time your exit right, right!

http://myob.co.nz/myob/news-12578282...0230&year=2016

“It is important that the decline in revenue and consumer confidence in the dairy industry is not considered in isolation. What the MYOB Business Monitor results have shown is that dairy prices have a major impact on the whole economy, and particularly in key industries such as retail and hospitality,” says Mr Scollay.

**winner69** · 16-03-2016, 08:59 AM

Originally Posted by Raz

All good, just time your exit right, right!

http://myob.co.nz/myob/news-12578282...0230&year=2016

“It is important that the decline in revenue and consumer confidence in the dairy industry is not considered in isolation. What the MYOB Business Monitor results have shown is that dairy prices have a major impact on the whole economy, and particularly in key industries such as retail and hospitality,” says Mr Scollay.

Hey Raz, did you know that there is no correlation (if anything it is negative) between dairy prices (ANZ Dairy Commodity Price Index) and annual GDP growth.

Since 1992 there has been 7 significant falls in dairy prices (including this one) and in only one of these was there a recession and that coincided with the GFC so that probably was a key reason.

As usual maybe this time it's different

**Raz** · 16-03-2016, 09:26 AM

Originally Posted by winner69

Hey Raz, did you know that there is no correlation (if anything it is negative) between dairy prices (ANZ Dairy Commodity Price Index) and annual GDP growth.

Since 1992 there has been 7 significant falls in dairy prices (including this one) and in only one of these was there a recession and that coincided with the GFC so that probably was a key reason.

As usual maybe this time it's different

Winner with an econometrics background I can data mine it either way if you want me to in an argument with GDP. GDP is a fuzzy measure of value at the best of times and I do not expect it to drop in proportion at all given all the clutter going on in Auckland. HBL has a large as a proportion of portfolio rural services portfolio and that really is the relevance and to be on point. Not just Dairy but wide rural/regional loan book.

Lets wait for the stress test which will all be fine. If so why the PR of stress test to start with...

A couple of positives recent developments coming the other way, the banks holding onto the last ORC rate allows them to allow the residential portfolio to cross subsidies the distressed loan book and maintain margin. Possibly knock back the interest rates for distressed farmers below 10% could be helpful. Also China launching a new venture fund aiming at buying AGIF so if the money comes our way they may buy up the dairy farms...limiting the impairment for the banks to a degree. Well i know that is what they are hoping for.

**Beagle** · 16-03-2016, 10:27 AM

Originally Posted by Raz

All good, just time your exit right, right!

http://myob.co.nz/myob/news-12578282...0230&year=2016

“It is important that the decline in revenue and consumer confidence in the dairy industry is not considered in isolation. What the MYOB Business Monitor results have shown is that dairy prices have a major impact on the whole economy, and particularly in key industries such as retail and hospitality,” says Mr Scollay.

Very interesting link and underscores the issues for the economy generally and the extent of the impact on the asset quality of consumer and bank loans not specifically related to dairy.

**winner69** · 16-03-2016, 11:37 AM

Dairy prices down a tad overnight

Heartland shareprice down a tad

Just saying

**winner69** · 16-03-2016, 11:42 AM

Man on radio saying problems in dairy not all that widespread

Said 10% owe 40% of the debt or something like that

Hope those >$10m loans that Heartland have are all OK