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14-03-2016, 05:21 PM
#7221
Originally Posted by pierre
180 by Labour weekend
200 by Christmas
220 Waitangi Day
240 Easter
260 Anzac Day
etc
We need more public holidays - lol.
And $3.00 by Queens birthday 2017 ?
Last edited by Beagle; 14-03-2016 at 05:22 PM.
Ecclesiastes 11:2: “Divide your portion to seven, or even to eight, for you do not know what misfortune may occur on the earth.”
Ben Graham - In the short run the market is a voting machine but in the long run the market is a weighing machine
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15-03-2016, 09:46 AM
#7222
Hmm - extrapolations are always right, until they are wrong. And they always are.
Don't want to rain into the parade ... and while I agree that HBL (as well as some of the Ossie banks) look currently still reasonably priced (i.e. in my view more worth than what the shares currently cost) ... there are as well some risks hanging around.
The (though moderate) exposure to the dairy industry didn't go away overnight, Harmony does not always get the best press, and not sure how long their growth curve continues ... and haven't heard for some time how the reverse mortgage business is doing.
Consensus forecast is currently $1.30 ($1.25 ... $1.35) and while analysts have a track record in underestimating HBL's future share price, do I think that they are closer to the mark than some of the predictions in this thread.
(edit)
Discl: holding HBL (and ANZ) and NOT expecting a (huge) capital gain, but holding them for a dividend much better than bonds or bank accounts can deliver these days;
Last edited by BlackPeter; 15-03-2016 at 05:45 PM.
Reason: fixed and clarified the last sentence
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"Prediction is very difficult, especially about the future" (Niels Bohr)
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15-03-2016, 05:24 PM
#7223
Originally Posted by BlackPeter
Hmm - extrapolations are always right, until they are wrong. And they always are.
Don't want to rain into the parade ... and while I agree that HBL (as well as some of the Ossie banks) look currently still reasonably priced (i.e. in my view more worth than what the shares currently cost) ... there are as well some risks hanging around.
The (though moderate) exposure to the dairy industry didn't go away overnight, Harmony does not always get the best press, and not sure how long their growth curve continues ... and haven't heard for some time how the reverse mortgage business is doing.
Consensus forecast is currently $1.30 ($1.25 ... $1.35) and while analysts have a track record in underestimating HBL's future share price, do I think that they are closer to the mark than some of the predictions in this thread.
Discl: holding HBL (and ANZ) and for a (huge) capital gain, but for a dividend much better than bonds or bank accounts can deliver these days;
All good, just time your exit right, right!
http://myob.co.nz/myob/news-12578282...0230&year=2016
“It is important that the decline in revenue and consumer confidence in the dairy industry is not considered in isolation. What the MYOB Business Monitor results have shown is that dairy prices have a major impact on the whole economy, and particularly in key industries such as retail and hospitality,” says Mr Scollay.
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16-03-2016, 08:59 AM
#7224
Originally Posted by Raz
All good, just time your exit right, right!
http://myob.co.nz/myob/news-12578282...0230&year=2016
“It is important that the decline in revenue and consumer confidence in the dairy industry is not considered in isolation. What the MYOB Business Monitor results have shown is that dairy prices have a major impact on the whole economy, and particularly in key industries such as retail and hospitality,” says Mr Scollay.
Hey Raz, did you know that there is no correlation (if anything it is negative) between dairy prices (ANZ Dairy Commodity Price Index) and annual GDP growth.
Since 1992 there has been 7 significant falls in dairy prices (including this one) and in only one of these was there a recession and that coincided with the GFC so that probably was a key reason.
As usual maybe this time it's different
Last edited by winner69; 16-03-2016 at 09:00 AM.
”When investors are euphoric, they are incapable of recognising euphoria itself “
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16-03-2016, 09:26 AM
#7225
Originally Posted by winner69
Hey Raz, did you know that there is no correlation (if anything it is negative) between dairy prices (ANZ Dairy Commodity Price Index) and annual GDP growth.
Since 1992 there has been 7 significant falls in dairy prices (including this one) and in only one of these was there a recession and that coincided with the GFC so that probably was a key reason.
As usual maybe this time it's different
Winner with an econometrics background I can data mine it either way if you want me to in an argument with GDP. GDP is a fuzzy measure of value at the best of times and I do not expect it to drop in proportion at all given all the clutter going on in Auckland. HBL has a large as a proportion of portfolio rural services portfolio and that really is the relevance and to be on point. Not just Dairy but wide rural/regional loan book.
Lets wait for the stress test which will all be fine. If so why the PR of stress test to start with...
A couple of positives recent developments coming the other way, the banks holding onto the last ORC rate allows them to allow the residential portfolio to cross subsidies the distressed loan book and maintain margin. Possibly knock back the interest rates for distressed farmers below 10% could be helpful. Also China launching a new venture fund aiming at buying AGIF so if the money comes our way they may buy up the dairy farms...limiting the impairment for the banks to a degree. Well i know that is what they are hoping for.
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16-03-2016, 10:27 AM
#7226
Originally Posted by Raz
All good, just time your exit right, right!
http://myob.co.nz/myob/news-12578282...0230&year=2016
“It is important that the decline in revenue and consumer confidence in the dairy industry is not considered in isolation. What the MYOB Business Monitor results have shown is that dairy prices have a major impact on the whole economy, and particularly in key industries such as retail and hospitality,” says Mr Scollay.
Very interesting link and underscores the issues for the economy generally and the extent of the impact on the asset quality of consumer and bank loans not specifically related to dairy.
Last edited by Beagle; 16-03-2016 at 10:30 AM.
Ecclesiastes 11:2: “Divide your portion to seven, or even to eight, for you do not know what misfortune may occur on the earth.”
Ben Graham - In the short run the market is a voting machine but in the long run the market is a weighing machine
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16-03-2016, 11:37 AM
#7227
Dairy prices down a tad overnight
Heartland shareprice down a tad
Just saying
”When investors are euphoric, they are incapable of recognising euphoria itself “
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16-03-2016, 11:42 AM
#7228
Man on radio saying problems in dairy not all that widespread
Said 10% owe 40% of the debt or something like that
Hope those >$10m loans that Heartland have are all OK
”When investors are euphoric, they are incapable of recognising euphoria itself “
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16-03-2016, 11:45 AM
#7229
Originally Posted by winner69
Dairy prices down a tad overnight
Heartland shareprice down a tad
Just saying
Aussie banks went a bit down as well ...
Attachment 7935
Notice the correlation?
HBL in my view just moving with the financial sector ...
Last edited by BlackPeter; 16-03-2016 at 11:49 AM.
Reason: replaced link (did not work) with picture ...
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"Prediction is very difficult, especially about the future" (Niels Bohr)
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16-03-2016, 11:55 AM
#7230
Originally Posted by BlackPeter
Aussie banks went a bit down as well ...
Attachment 7935
Notice the correlation?
HBL in my view just moving with the financial sector ...
Makes sense Heartland tarred with the same brush as those unethical Aussie banks.
”When investors are euphoric, they are incapable of recognising euphoria itself “
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