HGH - Heartland Group Holdings

[Baa_Baa]

Some people sold after really decent run up into the 1.40's, and there's only been one buyback (mid Oct'15) and one sell (late Jan'16) since then (with a tricky fake out to be avoided in Feb'16). Currently it's still a 'sold-stay-out'. But that's a capital management viewpoint, I haven't bothered to figure out whether the dividends would've ameliorated the capital losses had one chosen to hold for the duration after the price peaks. The rest of the story is just noise.

[winner69]

Winner, $2M is a drop in the bucket. Once you see the earnings from the next acquisition you'll agree.



If you're not happy with the return you could always put your money in a bank like ANZ or something. Or you could put it in a HNZ account and get an even better return than ANZ.

$1.60 by Christmas.

Heartland trumpeted big time that 1/2 year was up $2m odd on prior period - so earnings increase was just a drop in the bucket then

$1.60 by Christmas - sure thing, esp if they stopped smoothing the earnings out and reported a full year closer to $60m instead of the $55m they say

[boysy]

Ps kiwibank has do direct dairy exposure

[percy]

I'm wrong sometimes - what happens if it is 2% or 3% or 4% or higher - and dividend gets reduced

Context - several loans >$10m - one goes belly up big time that's 4%

And this comes from the poster who stated post#7351 "Heartland earnings announcements have never surprised me."
Well you surprise me,well to be honest you don't.!

[nextbigthing]

so earnings increase was just a drop in the bucket then

As per the earlier statement, once you see the acquisition earnings, you'd agree it is. Exciting position!

$1.60 by Christmas - sure thing

Agree.

[Beagle]

Go back to the start of this thread.Post No.1 ..01-06-2011 and read all the posts .
Then read HBL reports,announcements,and presentations..
You will note HBL have always done what they said they would do.
Then read what posters have posted.Very few have been even nearly right,yet they continue to make a lot of noise..

Doing what they say they will do isn't the defining measure of success. Even on a brief overview its clear that banks world-wide have been under serious pressure due to asset quality concerns. The market is clearly worried about future provisioning and the SP of most Australasian banks has reflected that. Anyone like me that made the call a year ago that this stock was fully priced at just over $1.30 would be well pleased to have avoided not only the 10% capital decline in value in HBL since then but also to have participated in the 15% rally in the NZX over the last year by redeploying their capital elsewhere.

In my opinion HBL's 25% relative under-performance to the NZX50 cannot be rationally explained by any other means other than to say the market sees trouble coming ahead. The market is also concerned about the contagion effect the severe pressure the dairy industry is under, rubbing off on other rural service industries too. I think the 8% exposure is just strictly dairy but what's the total exposure when you add in the effect on other service industries and contractors that rely on dairy for a lot of their work ?

Anyway...a friend of mine shared with me on the weekend that the normal pay-out averaged only $4 for the nine years leading up to 2007 so my main point today is what sort of mess are land values in and banks provisioning in if history simply repeats, (as it often does) and why do most people think a recovery in dairy prices is going to happen at some stage over the next year or two ? What evidence are they basing that expectation on ? Just wanted to share so people can have a think, no agenda and not looking to get back in if it gets cheaper.

Why are other banks raising their dairy loan provisioning but HBL are claiming they're all hunky dory ?...what makes their dairy loans so special ?

[winner69]

And this comes from the poster who stated post#7351 "Heartland earnings announcements have never surprised me."
Well you surprise me,well to be honest you don't.!

Never surprised with Heartland announcements - but often disappointed

[winner69]

As per the earlier statement, once you see the acquisition earnings, you'd agree it is. Exciting position!



e.

Not far off now is it

[nextbigthing]

Not far off now is it

The silence is deafening. Happy to wait while they perform thorough due diligence to ensure the premium acquisition at a discount price

[stoploss]

The silence is deafening. Happy to wait while they perform thorough due diligence to ensure the premium acquisition at a discount price

They buying Fonterra ?