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18-04-2016, 09:12 PM
#7381
I agree with Roger in doubting that ANZ could be described as a distressed seller of UDC. They made a decision some time ago to exit the finance co side of the business and sold off the much bigger Esanda in Australia last year. It's correct that they will need to keep augmenting their capital - but then, so will any successful bank with a growing loan book.
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18-04-2016, 09:39 PM
#7382
Originally Posted by macduffy
I agree with Roger in doubting that ANZ could be described as a distressed seller of UDC. They made a decision some time ago to exit the finance co side of the business and sold off the much bigger Esanda in Australia last year. It's correct that they will need to keep augmenting their capital - but then, so will any successful bank with a growing loan book.
So will any bank with problem loans be it in the dairy sector , mining sector or in Asia .....
http://www.theguardian.com/business/...g-analysts-say
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18-04-2016, 09:50 PM
#7383
Originally Posted by stoploss
Bit like that chart Winner posted the other day of historical dairy prices...Scary stuff !!
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19-04-2016, 07:03 AM
#7384
Originally Posted by macduffy
I agree with Roger in doubting that ANZ could be described as a distressed seller of UDC. They made a decision some time ago to exit the finance co side of the business and sold off the much bigger Esanda in Australia last year. It's correct that they will need to keep augmenting their capital - but then, so will any successful bank with a growing loan book.
The Australian Banks are needing to shore up their capital to meet new Australian capital requirements.
ie more capital to service existing loans.
Growth will require further capital.
While Heartland Bank has excess capital,[for existing loans.]
Selling Esanda and UDC to boast capital for core banking business,may make sense to some,while others will question the decision.
ps ANZ Bank's Moranbah branch is at 1 Griffin Street,Moranbah,Qld,4744.
Last edited by percy; 19-04-2016 at 07:29 AM.
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19-04-2016, 08:02 AM
#7385
Originally Posted by Roger
Bit like that chart Winner posted the other day of historical dairy prices...Scary stuff !!
....when Heartland have $240m plus of dairy loans
Headlines yesterday said dairy farm prices were still going down
”When investors are euphoric, they are incapable of recognising euphoria itself “
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19-04-2016, 12:38 PM
#7386
Share price going gang busters at the moment
Doesnt seem to be keeping up with those nasty under capitalised aussie banks though
”When investors are euphoric, they are incapable of recognising euphoria itself “
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19-04-2016, 01:43 PM
#7387
Originally Posted by percy
Overnight should your loan be approved.
So a SME goes on line and answer 6 questions right and says they have myob and they get $50,000 in their account the following morning.
Hmm - sounds too easy
”When investors are euphoric, they are incapable of recognising euphoria itself “
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19-04-2016, 01:51 PM
#7388
Originally Posted by winner69
So a SME goes on line and answer 6 questions right and says they have myob and they get $50,000 in their account the following morning.
Hmm - sounds too easy
As Judge Judy would say;It's all to do with the questions you ask".
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19-04-2016, 01:56 PM
#7389
Originally Posted by percy
HBL taking over UDC would make very good sense.
HBL have stated any acquisition would have to be earnings accretive.
HBL at today's $1.21, is trading on a PE of 11.32.So would they pay a PE of 9 for UDC.?That would be just over $513mil which is a long way short of the $600 to $700 mil talked about.
HBL's market cap today is $576.5mil.A large cap raising would be needed.Yet if it added up it would be well supported .
Would ANZ take HBL scrip to get UDC off their books?
Another case of a distressed business [ANZ] selling off the crown jewels?
Nice to see the opportunities coming HBL's way.
Still no decision in the MTF Sportzone case.MTF would be a great "bolt on" acquisition for either HBL, or HBLUDC.!
All of this confirms that HBL, having excess capital while the Aussie banks need to raise capital,means the correlation between HBL and the Aussie banks is wrong,and HBL's share price has been mispriced by the market.
ps.Google "60 minutes Moranbah housing",and you can understand why Aussie banks require more capital.
I may have been too generous in my $513mil value of UDC.
Would need a lot more time than I have, to untie the close relationship UDC have with ANZ,and how much that is worth to UDC.
It will have a big bearing on the UDC valuation.
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19-04-2016, 02:43 PM
#7390
http://www.nbr.co.nz/article/potenti...iness-b-187802
The other thing to keep in mind is UDC is able to raise deposit funding very cheaply due to its parent's AA- credit rating. That would change if HBL bought it and stretched their capital adequacy right to the limit to fund such a potential acquisition.
I personally think a float is probably the best option for ANZ. UDC with its superior profitability and relative lack of exposure to the problematic dairy industry would probably have a higher market capitalisation than HBL.
Last edited by Beagle; 19-04-2016 at 02:45 PM.
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