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19-04-2016, 10:19 PM
#7401
Did I read somewhere that even TSB were interested??
At this rate of interest, we could have Flexigroup come out and do what they did to F & P Finance
Last edited by trader_jackson; 19-04-2016 at 10:20 PM.
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19-04-2016, 10:44 PM
#7402
Originally Posted by trader_jackson
Did I read somewhere that even TSB were interested??
At this rate of interest, we could have Flexigroup come out and do what they did to F & P Finance
Ah cool, so while we're making up stuff... the Chinese government will fund ATM, as a warehouser, to launch a UDC takeover.
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20-04-2016, 05:11 AM
#7403
My mate cam with good news
@ANZ_cambagrie: Global dairy trade prices up 3.8%. Whole milk powder up 7.5%. A nice bounce but nzdusd at 0.70.
Expect another boost to heartland share price, their strategy of hoping that potential problems will just go away is working
Last edited by winner69; 20-04-2016 at 05:24 AM.
”When investors are euphoric, they are incapable of recognising euphoria itself “
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20-04-2016, 05:37 AM
#7404
Originally Posted by percy
If HBL don't buy UDC cheaply, I too hope it will go for huge multiples.
PE of 12.3 would be $700mil.
PE of 15 would take it up to about $855mil.
Then I would expect HBL would be rerated upwards.
I seem to be "well positioned" either way.
We certainly have some interesting times ahead.
And the MTF Sortzone case judgement must be due very shortly.
Opportunities for all.....!!
Percy, your $855m
Guru analysts often use price book ratio to value banks (read your Craigs report)
UDC at $855m is 2.3 times book value
Same multiple for heartland makes them worth $1.1 billion
Share price then $2.40
As you say mate no matter what happens Heartland wins - even if it just a rerating when the market unlocks the intrinsic value embedded in heartland
Maybe not $2.40 but that $1.60 by xmas looks a cert now
Last edited by winner69; 20-04-2016 at 05:45 AM.
”When investors are euphoric, they are incapable of recognising euphoria itself “
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20-04-2016, 09:45 AM
#7405
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20-04-2016, 09:51 AM
#7406
Reality Check
Originally Posted by winner69
My mate cam with good news
@ANZ_cambagrie: Global dairy trade prices up 3.8%. Whole milk powder up 7.5%. A nice bounce but nzdusd at 0.70.
Expect another boost to heartland share price, their strategy of hoping that potential problems will just go away is working
Fonterra's pay-out is still well below the level needed for dairy farmers with over 50% gearing to get anywhere near break even. Most independent experts say we need $5.30 a Kg for breakeven for the average dairy famer, much more for those with, (by my calculations), 70% gearing which is approximately where HBL's average loan stands based on today's land and herd values (taking into account steep falls over the last year).
Banks are a very long way from being out of the woods with their dairy loans.
Last edited by Beagle; 20-04-2016 at 09:54 AM.
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21-04-2016, 09:21 AM
#7407
All gloom and dismay over on the Harmoney thread
Dodgy loans, writeoffs, Harmoney not vettingbthings thatvwell, fraud and all sort of stuff.
Those punters just don't get it - all part and parcel of being a lender
They also don't realise they don't really matter - Harmoney just a shop front for Hesrtland and others.
Heartland with their $50m plus (wonder how much it is now) of lending through Harmoney must be creaming it - average RAR of at least 13% they say
And i wonder what Heartlands share of Harmoney is going to be worth when they float - heaps
”When investors are euphoric, they are incapable of recognising euphoria itself “
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26-04-2016, 01:58 PM
#7408
Wonder if Heartland management are working out why the Seniors acquisition hasn't been EPS accretive?
But then again EPS accretive is a warm fuzzy term that post acquisition seems to be forgotten anyway.
”When investors are euphoric, they are incapable of recognising euphoria itself “
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26-04-2016, 09:14 PM
#7409
http://www.stuff.co.nz/business/7932...ortgage-scheme
Could affect HBL... although I doubt the government would do it...
As always, thoughts appreciated
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27-04-2016, 06:10 AM
#7410
Originally Posted by trader_jackson
I doubt the government (current government at least) would be interested in providing something the market is already providing competitively.
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