HGH - Heartland Group Holdings

[trader_jackson]

Did I read somewhere that even TSB were interested??

At this rate of interest, we could have Flexigroup come out and do what they did to F & P Finance

[Hectorplains]

Did I read somewhere that even TSB were interested??

At this rate of interest, we could have Flexigroup come out and do what they did to F & P Finance

Ah cool, so while we're making up stuff... the Chinese government will fund ATM, as a warehouser, to launch a UDC takeover.

[winner69]

My mate cam with good news

@ANZ_cambagrie: Global dairy trade prices up 3.8%. Whole milk powder up 7.5%. A nice bounce but nzdusd at 0.70.

Expect another boost to heartland share price, their strategy of hoping that potential problems will just go away is working

[winner69]

If HBL don't buy UDC cheaply, I too hope it will go for huge multiples.
PE of 12.3 would be $700mil.
PE of 15 would take it up to about $855mil.

Then I would expect HBL would be rerated upwards.
I seem to be "well positioned" either way.

We certainly have some interesting times ahead.
And the MTF Sortzone case judgement must be due very shortly.

Opportunities for all.....!!

Percy, your $855m

Guru analysts often use price book ratio to value banks (read your Craigs report)

UDC at $855m is 2.3 times book value

Same multiple for heartland makes them worth $1.1 billion

Share price then $2.40

As you say mate no matter what happens Heartland wins - even if it just a rerating when the market unlocks the intrinsic value embedded in heartland

Maybe not $2.40 but that $1.60 by xmas looks a cert now

[King1212]

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/n...ectid=11625458

[Beagle]

My mate cam with good news

@ANZ_cambagrie: Global dairy trade prices up 3.8%. Whole milk powder up 7.5%. A nice bounce but nzdusd at 0.70.

Expect another boost to heartland share price, their strategy of hoping that potential problems will just go away is working

Fonterra's pay-out is still well below the level needed for dairy farmers with over 50% gearing to get anywhere near break even. Most independent experts say we need $5.30 a Kg for breakeven for the average dairy famer, much more for those with, (by my calculations), 70% gearing which is approximately where HBL's average loan stands based on today's land and herd values (taking into account steep falls over the last year).

Banks are a very long way from being out of the woods with their dairy loans.

[winner69]

All gloom and dismay over on the Harmoney thread

Dodgy loans, writeoffs, Harmoney not vettingbthings thatvwell, fraud and all sort of stuff.

Those punters just don't get it - all part and parcel of being a lender

They also don't realise they don't really matter - Harmoney just a shop front for Hesrtland and others.

Heartland with their $50m plus (wonder how much it is now) of lending through Harmoney must be creaming it - average RAR of at least 13% they say

And i wonder what Heartlands share of Harmoney is going to be worth when they float - heaps

[winner69]

Wonder if Heartland management are working out why the Seniors acquisition hasn't been EPS accretive?

But then again EPS accretive is a warm fuzzy term that post acquisition seems to be forgotten anyway.

[trader_jackson]

http://www.stuff.co.nz/business/7932...ortgage-scheme

Could affect HBL... although I doubt the government would do it...

As always, thoughts appreciated

[nextbigthing]

http://www.stuff.co.nz/business/7932...ortgage-scheme

Could affect HBL... although I doubt the government would do it...

As always, thoughts appreciated

I doubt the government (current government at least) would be interested in providing something the market is already providing competitively.