HGH - Heartland Group Holdings

[percy]

Catch your ego on the way out..bring up or debate something of substance.

Have deleted the post.

[percy]

This thread has been going for nearly 5 years.
A lot of water under the bridge.
So what has been HBL's performance compared to the Aussie banks over those 5 years.
According to Yahoo Finance the following.
ANZ....-2.48%
CBA.....+58.76%
HBL......+68.92%
NAB......+17.88%
WBC.....+18.06%
Big difference between the best and the worst.!

[percy]

HBL +68%
NZ50 +100% (or there abouts)

Come on W69,be consistent,comparing a gross index with my figures which do not include dividends is misleading.
Not like you.
Possibly you would like to compare like for like for us?

[nextbigthing]

HBL +68%
NZ50 +100% (or there abouts)

Add the extra 32% and it's pretty close to $1.60 (by Christmas) Winner. Spooky eh!

[Joshuatree]

My fave bank looking strong; up through the 30,60,120,180 DMA/ nice.

[K1W1G0LD]

Well the grass is growing and the paint drying nicely now...........................that the SP is catching up.
You have nothing to apologize for on here Percy.

[Snoopy]

Snapshot Time	Rural Loans (A)	Total Loans (B)	(A)/(B)	(B) for ?
EOFY2012	$530.440m	$2,197.494m	24%	Bank Only
EOFY2013	$499.942m	$2,557.796m	20%	All Group
EOHY2014	$462.564m	$2,344.661m	20%	Bank Only
EOFY2014	$492.020m	$2,891.597m	16%	All Group
EOHY2015	$508.655m	$2,471.156m	21%	Bank Only
EOFY2015	$537.286m	$3,234.025m	17%	All Group
EOHY2016	$570.735m	$3,237.047m	18%	Amalgam

I have added an extra column (B) for ? to identify for which part of the Heartland Empire you numbers relate to.

The new 'Amalgam' Heartland Bank numbers are equivalent to the previous All [of] Group numbers (that you read from the Group FY statements] but your Bank Only numbers [which came from the Bank disclosure statements] are a sub-set of the 'All Group', most of the HER stuff being the major difference.

You are right PT. The reason why I was 'mixing and matching' 'All Group' results and 'Bank Only' results needs explaining.

What I wanted was the 'All Group' results. When you buy HBL shares on the market you can only buy 'All Group', so that is what is of interest to shareholders. But prior to HY2016 (a dramatic improvement in disclosing useful information here - well done Heartland), the information in the Heartland interim report I would describe as 'scratchy at best'. As far as breaking down the industry sectors of the loan book they were completely useless. So I extracted the 'bank only' information from the equivalent declaration statement made to the reserve bank co-inciding with the equivalent interim report.

The FY2012 figure is the comparative given in the FY2013 annual report. That one is listed as a group figure.

The Seniors acquisition was made in April 2004. So we can get an idea of any error in my table by looking at the 'bank only' reserve bank declaration for FY2014 (period ending 30th June 2014) and FY2015 (period ending 30th June 2015). These figures are then compared with the group figures declared in the respective annual reports.

http://www.heartland.co.nz/uploadGal...nt%20Jun14.pdf
(From note 34c)

AND

http://www.heartland.co.nz/uploadGal...une%202015.pdf
(From note 17c)

Snapshot Time	Rural Loans (A)	Total Loans (B)	(A)/(B)	(B) for ?
EOFY2014	$469.020m	$2,295.195m	20%	Bank Only
EOFY2014	$469.020m	$2,891.597m	16%	All Group
EOFY2015	$537.286m	$2,716.104m	20%	Bank Only
EOFY2015	$537.286m	$3,234.025m	17%	All Group

So let's say the 'bank only' figures are, for the purposes of adjustment, 4% too high. I will make this adjustment to the half year figures and see what that does to the trend picture.

SNOOPY

[Ggcc]

Just left the meeting at Havelock north with CEO and part of management. I got a very positive vibe. Happy shareholder 😊

[Snoopy]

'Take more care in sourcing your data'

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

Snapshot Time	Rural Loans (A)	Total Loans (B)	(A)/(B)
EOFY2012	$530.440m	$2,197.494m	24%	(B) for All Group
EOFY2013	$499.942m	$2,557.796m	20%	(B) for All Group
EOHY2014	$462.564m	$2,344.661m (*)	16%	(A/B) All Group Adjusted
EOFY2014	$492.020m	$2,891.597m	16%	(B) for All Group
EOHY2015	$508.655m	$2,471.156m (*)	17%	(A/B) All Group Adjusted
EOFY2015	$537.286m	$3,234.025m	17%	(B) for All Group
EOHY2016	$570.735m	$3,237.047m	18%	(B) for Amalgam

(*) indicates figure is a low estimate. (Actual group figure not disclosed by Heartland).

The adjusted figures show that the best thing Heartland did to reduce rural debt portfolio risk was to acquire Seniors!

We can also see with more clarity that since the Seniors acquisition, rural debt risk has been steadily increasing again.

Under section 12d in HYAR2016 Heartland states:

"At 31 December 2015 the banking group did not have any period end or peak end-of-day credit exposures over 10% of equity to individual counter parties (not being members of groups of closely related counter parties) or groups of closely related counterparties (excluding central government of any country with a long-term credit rating of A-or A3 or above."

This is good to know. However, I have a slightly different view from Heartland as regards dairy farm loans. There has been a heavy incentive (the high milk price) for dairy farmers to borrow and invest. Heartland loans are likely to be at the riskier end of the dairy loan spectrum, because they charge higher rates than other banks. So in my judgement, despite these loans being spread around different unconnected farms, these loans should be grouped together for risk assessment purposes.

Dairy exposure has been declared as 8% of the lending book at 31-12-2015 (see text interim result announcement).

0.08 x 3,237,047m = $259m This represents 45% of the $571m listed Agricultural loans, up from 41% six months earlier. One explanation for this is that Heartland are capitalising interest payments in the hope that the dairy situation will improve in the medium term. However, the dairy situation is not improving. So I am expecting a significant jump in dairy loan write downs in the second half years.

Overall dairy loans were not projected as problems at 31-12-2015. But watch this space!

SNOOPY

[SCOTTY]

Just left the meeting at Havelock north with CEO and part of management. I got a very positive vibe. Happy shareholder 😊

Hi Ggcc. Was this some sort of HBL road show?