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  1. #11896
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    Quote Originally Posted by peat View Post
    Well , a lot of excitement on this forum re HGH despite it being a very downward sloping chart , however lo and behold I've spotted a possible reversal pattern here as well. Again a bullish gartley perhaps not quite as perfect as the one on Z Energy , and it is a bit holey and spotted looking using normal candlesticks on the chart. But if I Heiken Ashi those candles it smooths it out and the pattern looks more complete and more critically, it does retrace the required 61.8 and 78.6% on the B and D points.

    Attachment 10303

    We've had a bounce off the D point , its not exactly the greatest indication of a turnaround but it is a bounce and that bounce is now retracing so if you were a risk taker its not a bad time to punt on the pattern.
    Entry 1.37-8 , Stop Loss 1.32 , first target 1.45 but hope for a lot more (otherwise the trade is somewhat marginal on risk/reward basis) .

    FWIW DYOR no responsibility taken.
    Thanks Peat. Your analysis appreciated. I hope your 'bullish gartley' all 'holey' and 'spotted' is not too contagious .
    Looks like a mild sort of bullish penant formation to me. But I wouldn't bet my house on it.
    Last edited by Left field; 09-02-2019 at 02:08 PM.

  2. #11897
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    Quote Originally Posted by Left field View Post
    But I wouldn't bet my house on it.
    Totally

    Tho maybe the deck?
    For clarity, nothing I say is advice....

  3. #11898
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    Quote Originally Posted by Snoopy View Post
    There was a tiny foot note at the bottom of page 6 (of the HGH restructuring proposal):

    "It is a condition of Heartland Bank’s registration as a registered bank that Heartland Bank must conduct a substantial portion of its business within New Zealand. This requires Heartland Bank’s Australian assets to not exceed 33% of its total assets."

    Yet if you go over to the Cameron Partners Report p23, or p64 of the 'report within a report'.

    Requirement for Substantial portion of business in New Zealand (Total Assets Maximum): Not disclosed

    Why did Heartland not disclose to Camerons the maximum amount of business they could do outside of New Zealand, when they knew what it was all along? Could it be that if they had disclosed this, then Cameron's would have realised that they could more than double their business in Australia with the rules as they are now? And if Cameron's had known this, then the touted advantage of removing the 'constraint on Australian funding and asset growth' would probably not be a factor for several years of organic business growth?

    Of course it might be that Heartland wants to acquire a substantial existing reverse mortgage portfolio from a third party to add to their existing operations. In that case the restructure would be understandable. But if this was the case, why doesn't Heartland tell you shareholders what is in the wind?

    This proposal removes the protection of Reserve Bank of NZ oversight for no good reason. It will make no difference to Heartland profitability for the next couple of years at least if you vote in down. This new arrangement is an erosion of minority shareholder oversight and protection IMO. Vote it down folks.
    I wrote the above before I was a shareholder and before 'you shareholders' voted the deal through. For shareholders at that time, the HGH restructuring has been a disaster. We have had this and the PGW seed sale as recent incidences where the directors apparently did not know best. Shareholders in both of these companies who blindly followed the directors voting advice at consideration time, have ended up voting for the destruction of their own share capital. Perhaps 'thinking for yourself' might be a salutatory lesson to learn from this?

    I talked to my broker before buying into Heartland recently. He said that talk around the institutions was that Heartland had doubled down on their Australian operations at exactly the wrong time. Confirmation of further falling property values, particularly in Sydney and Melbourne, meant many institutions have headed for the exit. However, my broker suggested that the dividend yield had become so compelling that he saw value at $1.38. If the restructuring had not gone through and Heartland had 'stuck to its knitting' my broker thought the share price would be about $1.80 now. Co-incidence or not, the $1.38 trading price is 10% below my 'fair valuation' of the company, this time based on a multi-year picture of dividend yield. My own modelling suggests that $1.38 is good value even if the dividend falls a cent or two. That means I will be happy to hold on to my HGH shares, even if this does eventuate.

    That 'Aussie Banking Industry Spanking' dealt out by Kenneth M Hayne, Commissioner looks determined to see trailing commissions on mortgages phased out, in favour of a one off 'fee for service' charge. I don't know how any trailing commissions were structured by Heartland for arranging REMs in Australia. But they may have increased as the loan value increased via accruing of interest over the years. That won't happen from now on.

    Most of Heartland's representation in Australia is through brokers in Australia. I presume there is no such thing as a 'Reverse Mortgage Broker'. These brokers would handle all mortgage products. So why would they put their efforts into encouraging REM loans which tend to be smaller than regular mortgages? I think the selling of REM loans into Australia is destined to get a lot harder!

    SNOOPY
    Last edited by Snoopy; 10-02-2019 at 10:04 PM.
    Industry shorthand sees BNZ employees still called 'bankers' but ANZ employees now called 'anchors'. Westpac has opted out of banking industry shorthand...

  4. #11899
    Reincarnated Panthera Snow Leopard's Avatar
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    Welcome to the Heartland registry Snoopy. Pity you did not sign up back in the days when the risk/reward ratio was higher.

    I voted against this restructure (and also against the PGW sale) and of the ten NZX holdings I currently have, HGH is the smallest.
    But I am not particularly concerned about the timing of Heartland's expansion in the Oz market. It is a long game and now is as good as any other.

    So the $64 question: Does the Snow Leopard think a $1.38 is good value for money?
    The $64 answer: Yes.

    The $65 question: Is the Snow Leopard buying?
    The $65 answer: No. Look at that chart! (but really it is because I have no spare change)
    Last edited by Snow Leopard; 11-02-2019 at 02:52 AM.
    om mani peme hum

  5. #11900
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    Default The Law of Supply and Demand - No selling required when supply dries up !

    I think the selling of REM loans into Australia is destined to get a lot harder! Snoopy
    A reality check from one hound to another. People are just like dogs, they like to eat and have their treats. If the food bowl provided by most all other sources has been withdrawn then every man woman and dog of age will look for some food bowl that's full. You don't have to sell anything. People and Beagles can't help themselves and like their treats, they will follow their nose and come looking. Payment of commissions is irrelevant to people eating into their own homes equity...if the customer must pay it then it will simply be loaded onto the loan.

    Falling house prices will sort themselves out over time and I am confident that HGH's lending policies are fairly conservative.

    One other thought for the day. As one of the very last food providers, those needy and looking for treats might find they have to pay a bit more for them...that would be a real "disappointment" for HGH shareholders wouldn't it

    The $64,000 question is are HGH shares value at this price ?...Is the Pope a Catholic ? Do I expect a quick ascent from here, absolutely not but with a gross dividend yield of ~ 9% and a forward PE of ~ 11 every man and his dog has the luxury of being patient.

    Why are a number of people talking about a dividend cut when eps is going up this year ? Some people appear to have forgotten that the RBNZ's capital adequacy proposal is just that, a proposal and that even if implemented in its current radical form, banks will have 5 years to comply and HGH can get there solely through its dividend reinvestment scheme issuing shares at , (from memory a 2% discount to VWAP). Ask yourself this simple question and the penny might drop. What would happen to the shareholder participation rate of the dividend reinvestment scheme if they raised the discount level to 3 or 4% ?
    Last edited by Beagle; 11-02-2019 at 08:03 AM.
    No butts, hold no mutts, (unless they're the furry variety).

  6. #11901
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    Quote Originally Posted by Snow Leopard View Post
    Welcome to the Heartland registry Snoopy. Pity you did not sign up back in the days when the risk/reward ratio was higher.
    Good on investors who got in at lower levels and despite the recent share price fall, are still sitting on a good capital profit while those dividends continue to flow. Personally I do not regret not getting in earlier. The risk/reward ratio an investor is comfortable with is a personal choice. 'Benefit of hindsight analysis' does not show that those who made the choice not to invest at the time made the wrong choice. I have been researching Heartland for many years and was well aware of alternative future paths at the time that Heartland could have followed, not all of those alternative futures being under the control of management! Five years of navigating through challenging market conditions gives me more confidence in Heartland's management's ability to navigate through the business ups and downs. I think that I have bought in at a risk/reward sweep spot. At this point I am happy to put my HGH shares in the bottom drawer and harvest the dividend stream. But if they can gain more traction in Australia, then all power to them. It will be 'growth for free' for me.

    I voted against this restructure.

    But I am not particularly concerned about the timing of Heartland's expansion in the Oz market. It is a long game and now is as good as any other.

    So the $64 question: Does the Snow Leopard think a $1.38 is good value for money?
    The $64 answer: Yes.

    The $65 question: Is the Snow Leopard buying?
    The $65 answer: No. Look at that chart! (but really it is because I have no spare change)
    I sense 'mixed mind messages' with the statement of being in for the medium term countered by the caution of short term chart signals. But I understand that 'no spare change' is the most legitimate ultimate trump card in this investment strategy game!

    SNOOPY
    Last edited by Snoopy; 11-02-2019 at 07:41 AM.
    Industry shorthand sees BNZ employees still called 'bankers' but ANZ employees now called 'anchors'. Westpac has opted out of banking industry shorthand...

  7. #11902
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    Quote Originally Posted by Beagle View Post
    Do I expect a quick ascent from here, absolutely not but with a gross dividend yield of ~ 9% and a forward PE of ~ 11 every man and his dog has the luxury of being patient.
    Agreed, remember this took over three years to rise from $1.05 to $2.14 ... I well remember a comment around 2015-2016 complaining the SP was stuck as it just didn't seem to move anywhere!

  8. #11903
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    Quote Originally Posted by Snoopy View Post
    ...But I understand that 'no spare change' is the most legitimate ultimate trump card in this investment strategy game!

    SNOOPY
    So, just bought a lot while sitting on a bench in a park in Bangkok, using the money saved by staying in a cheaper hotel.

    Must go, a squirrel is eyeing me up as an easy target for the old bench hire fee scam.
    om mani peme hum

  9. #11904
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    Quote Originally Posted by Snow Leopard View Post
    So, just bought a lot while sitting on a bench in a park in Bangkok, using the money saved by staying in a cheaper hotel.

    Must go, a squirrel is eyeing me up as an easy target for the old bench hire fee scam.
    tbh I think I'd rather stay in a nicer hotel.

    certainly doesnt look to be any upward pressure as of today.
    For clarity, nothing I say is advice....

  10. #11905
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    Quote Originally Posted by Snow Leopard View Post
    So, just bought a lot while sitting on a bench in a park in Bangkok, using the money saved by staying in a cheaper hotel.

    Must go, a squirrel is eyeing me up as an easy target for the old bench hire fee scam.
    NZ $80,000 is a lot of money to save.
    You living in that hotel for 3 years.?

  11. #11906
    Senior Member King1212's Avatar
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    Relentless selling....where is the button?

  12. #11907
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    Quote Originally Posted by King1212 View Post
    Relentless selling....where is the button?
    Seems plenty of keen buyers getting the bargain of the centre
    “Just consider that maybe the probability of you being wrong is higher than you think.”

  13. #11908
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    Quote Originally Posted by King1212 View Post
    Relentless selling....where is the button?
    No surprises there.!!!
    Snoopy's buying has spooked the market....lol.
    Well we must wait a week for the interim result.

  14. #11909
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    Quote Originally Posted by percy View Post
    No surprises there.!!!
    Snoopy's buying has spooked the market....lol.
    Well we must wait a week for the interim result.
    Four more shopping days to either grab the bargain of the century or land more in debt.

    19/02/2019 at 08:31, we will be patting ourselves on the back for getting in early, or crying buckets of tears

  15. #11910
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    Heck, I've just seen the closing price ... where did that come from?

    I've been holding off from topping up ... don't really have the cash ... but I might just have to dig deep.

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