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  1. #7961
    percy
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    Quote Originally Posted by winner69 View Post
    Updating things in readiness for the results announcement and came across this

    Broker analysts like Craigs seem to like using Price/Book ratios to value Heartland - using 1.1 times and sometimes 1.2 times

    Plotting book value against the share price seems to say that this is how the market values Heartland as well.

    Book value creeping up slowly over the last few years (high pay out ratio and new shares don't help) and over time so is the share price (with the occasional dips and spikes).

    Couldn't help but notice that the recent price rise has taken this to close to 1.3 the expected book value as at June 16 of $1.05 ..... suggesting that a good $60m guidance for F17 is already built in to the current price.

    No acquistions on the horizon so nextbigthing I think our $1.60 target is a bit outrageous
    I expect weakness in HBL's share price tomorrow as Winner69 sells out.!!..lol.

  2. #7962
    Speedy Az winner69's Avatar
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    Obviously full year npat going to be in the $51m to $55m range

    So no 'stunning result' but just a solid one come August 16th when Jeff says ' $54.7m which is at the upper end of guidance"

    So pro-active provisioning works
    Last edited by winner69; 02-08-2016 at 10:08 AM.
    “ At the top of every bubble, everyone is convinced it's not yet a bubble.”

  3. #7963
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    Quote Originally Posted by winner69 View Post
    Obviously full year npat going to be in the $51m to $55m range

    I can imagine the yells of of delight and outbursts of 'stunning result' come August 16th when Jeff says ' $54.7m which is at the upper end of guidance"

    So pro-active provisioning works
    Nothing obvious about it winner69..

    Behave yourself... There are children present ..

  4. #7964
    Pirate K1W1G0LD's Avatar
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    Share price got a bit ahead of itself today, only to be brought back to earth with a thump in the afternoon session by Mr market. encouraging sign nevertheless.

  5. #7965
    Speedy Az winner69's Avatar
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    Global Dairy prices up strongly overnight - whole milk powder nearly 10%

    Dairy crisis over

    Economy going gang busters - this just helps

    And Wheeler being sucked in by bank economists to cut the OCR (even down to 1.5% they suggest now) the boom will continue

    All good for Heartland - key drivers of profitability are general economic conditions and employment levels. Both looking good
    “ At the top of every bubble, everyone is convinced it's not yet a bubble.”

  6. #7966
    Guru
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    Quote Originally Posted by winner69 View Post
    Global Dairy prices up strongly overnight - whole milk powder nearly 10%

    Dairy crisis over

    Economy going gang busters - this just helps

    And Wheeler being sucked in by bank economists to cut the OCR (even down to 1.5% they suggest now) the boom will continue

    All good for Heartland - key drivers of profitability are general economic conditions and employment levels. Both looking good
    You would think you would see a sizable jump in the share price today, like other days, but hopefully this time it will hold onto gains... not to many reasons not to hold HBL right now that is for sure... the highest interest margin on the market is also a nice title to have

  7. #7967
    On the doghouse
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    Quote Originally Posted by winner69 View Post
    Global Dairy prices up strongly overnight - whole milk powder nearly 10%

    Dairy crisis over
    Er hardly. Even with the 10% rise in whole milk price, the average dairy farmer is still only receiving 70% of his production costs. And with the new season's calving yet to kick in, most farmers have no milk to sell anyway yet. I would say the real dairy crisis is only just beginning with sharemilkers/farmers still borrowing to live, making a loss and having no cashflow. Heartland is still in big trouble with their dairy portfolio I think.

    SNOOPY
    Last edited by Snoopy; 03-08-2016 at 10:41 AM.
    Watch out for the most persistent and dangerous version of Covid-19: B.S.24/7

  8. #7968
    Speedy Az winner69's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Snoopy View Post
    Er hardly. Even with the 10% rise in whole milk price, the average dairy farmer is still only receiving 70% of his production costs. And with the new season's calving yet to kick in, most farmers have no milk to sell anyway yet. I would say the real dairy crisis is only just beginning with sharemilkers/farmers still borrowing to live, making a loss and having no cashflow. Heartland is still in big trouble with their dairy portfolio I think.

    SNOOPY
    Don't be so depressing Snoopy me old mate

    It's all about sentiment

    Headlines this morning said dairy farmers woke up this morning with a big smile on their faces - isn't that a good sign

    Next you be telling me that snow in the south couldn't have come at a worse time - just as the little calves are coming into the world
    “ At the top of every bubble, everyone is convinced it's not yet a bubble.”

  9. #7969
    The Wolf of Sharetrader
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    Quote Originally Posted by Snoopy View Post
    Er hardly. Even with the 10% rise in whole milk price, the average dairy farmer is still only receiving 70% of his production costs. And with the new season's calving yet to kick in, most farmers have no milk to sell anyway yet. I would say the real dairy crisis is only just beginning with sharemilkers/farmers still borrowing to live, making a loss and having no cashflow. Heartland is still in big trouble with their dairy portfolio I think.

    SNOOPY
    Dear Snoopy,

    Thank you for your effective endorsement of HBL.

    Kind regards,
    NBT

  10. #7970
    Speedy Az winner69's Avatar
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    It has happened again - dairy prices surge and Heartland share price surges. (opposite also applies)

    Dairy crisis over - no worries for Heartland. After this years proactive provisioning heaps to write back in FY17

    At this rate a new all time high in a few days time
    “ At the top of every bubble, everyone is convinced it's not yet a bubble.”

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