sharetrader
Page 838 of 1722 FirstFirst ... 3387387888288348358368378388398408418428488889381338 ... LastLast
Results 8,371 to 8,380 of 17211
  1. #8371
    Veteran novice
    Join Date
    Jun 2007
    Location
    , , .
    Posts
    7,289

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by Bjauck View Post
    Every person has their price?

    Is loyalty with investing when an investor takes a longer-term view and is prepared to make a commitment and hold through any short-term oscillations? Or, When an investor was in from the early days, preparing to take a risk in order to allow a business to develop, whilst others waited to see if success actually was forthcoming?
    In both those instances the investor is acting in his/her own long term interests in the expectation of eventual gain. I see "loyalty" as being a bit more than that - an element of acting with a degree of altruism without regard for self-interest. So a bit pedantic perhaps, on my part?

  2. #8372
    Guru
    Join Date
    Aug 2012
    Posts
    4,660

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by macduffy View Post
    In both those instances the investor is acting in his/her own long term interests in the expectation of eventual gain. I see "loyalty" as being a bit more than that - an element of acting with a degree of altruism without regard for self-interest. So a bit pedantic perhaps, on my part?
    It is a question of degree and the manner by which the benefit is derived. There are degrees of loyalty and mutual benefit. I understand your point. I think loyalty is mutually beneficial and I am not sure that loyalty is synonymous with altruism. Although with 'altruism" there may still still be a satisfaction in some form derived by the "donor?"

  3. #8373
    ShareTrader Legend Beagle's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jul 2010
    Location
    Auckland
    Posts
    21,362

    Default

    As many investors will recall I have been very negative on HBL for the last two years as risks around dairy loan write-off's reached very high level's.
    I now believe the risk has passed so I tried to value the company this morning. I see about 11.75-12.00 cps for FY17, mid point of forecast suggests 12 cps on existing shares but they have just issued new ones so on a weighted average issued shares basis I would err towards the bottom of that range.

    Turning now to what's a fair PE, I think 12.5 is about right for this company taking into account the historical PE it has traded at, PE's for its peer group, its good capital adequacy ratio and sound previous and expected future growth so the hound sees fair value at 11.75 x 12.5 = $1.47 - $1.50. I have a modest bid in at that $1.47 and am happy to buy at the bottom end of my perception of fair value.

    I think HBL and other banks got very lucky with the dairy recovery. It could well have turned out very ugly for the entire dairy sector and the banks, thankfully it didn't.
    Last edited by Beagle; 15-12-2016 at 12:22 PM.
    Ecclesiastes 11:2: “Divide your portion to seven, or even to eight, for you do not know what misfortune may occur on the earth.
    Ben Graham - In the short run the market is a voting machine but in the long run the market is a weighing machine

  4. #8374
    Member
    Join Date
    Jul 2004
    Location
    , , .
    Posts
    474

    Default

    Thanks ,Roger. Good analysis . Got some at 1.46 and happy to add more at that price thru the spp next year. With interest rates rising in the USA and here at seems to me the banks will do better. Overweight in HBL.

  5. #8375
    Reincarnated Panthera Snow Leopard's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jul 2004
    Location
    Private Universe
    Posts
    5,853

    Red face 50 Shades Of Orange

    For Heartland Bank I do not believe the overall risk of write-offs has materially changed much over the last few years and there is a probability that going forward write-offs will increase (or indeed, decrease) as a proportion of lending.

    You need to look at the entire game board to get a decent perspective.

    Being somewhat conserative in my expectations of what will be achieved over the next few years I have a present right here right now value for this Bank of a mere $1.386.


    Meanwhile it is the biggest single holding in my NZX portfolio, and long may it be so.

    Best Wishes
    Paper Tiger
    om mani peme hum

  6. #8376
    ShareTrader Legend Beagle's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jul 2010
    Location
    Auckland
    Posts
    21,362

    Default Is there a bit of dividend hound lurking inside the Tiger ?

    Quote Originally Posted by Paper Tiger View Post
    For Heartland Bank I do not believe the overall risk of write-offs has materially changed much over the last few years and there is a probability that going forward write-offs will increase (or indeed, decrease) as a proportion of lending.

    You need to look at the entire game board to get a decent perspective.

    Being somewhat conserative in my expectations of what will be achieved over the next few years I have a present right here right now value for this Bank of a mere $1.386.


    Meanwhile it is the biggest single holding in my NZX portfolio, and long may it be so.

    Best Wishes
    Paper Tiger
    This piqued the hound's curiosity. If one's fair value at present is only $1.386 and the SP is $1.50 what other reason to hold other than to be what ostensibly amounts to a dividend hound ?
    Ecclesiastes 11:2: “Divide your portion to seven, or even to eight, for you do not know what misfortune may occur on the earth.
    Ben Graham - In the short run the market is a voting machine but in the long run the market is a weighing machine

  7. #8377
    Speedy Az winner69's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jun 2001
    Location
    , , .
    Posts
    37,738

    Default

    That 160 by Christmas looks a long shot now

    Bugger .... maybe by Christmas 2017
    “ At the top of every bubble, everyone is convinced it's not yet a bubble.”

  8. #8378
    Reincarnated Panthera Snow Leopard's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jul 2004
    Location
    Private Universe
    Posts
    5,853

    Red face I really must find the time to code foe weekly on these charts

    Quote Originally Posted by Roger View Post
    This piqued the hound's curiosity. If one's fair value at present is only $1.386 and the SP is $1.50 what other reason to hold other than to be what ostensibly amounts to a dividend hound ?


    Best Wishes
    Paper Tiger
    Last edited by Snow Leopard; 15-12-2016 at 08:53 PM. Reason: slightly improved image
    om mani peme hum

  9. #8379
    ShareTrader Legend Beagle's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jul 2010
    Location
    Auckland
    Posts
    21,362

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by Paper Tiger View Post


    Best Wishes
    Paper Tiger
    I see. That said it's right on the 100 day MA line and a line break to bring it back to the hounds bid price, ($1.47), will probably constitute a breech of the 100 day MA and were that sustained for 3 days that would be a technical sell for me.
    Hmmmmmmmmmmmmmmm. (Dog scratches head and decides its time for bed) Definitely something to reconsider, (my bid), tomorrow.
    Ecclesiastes 11:2: “Divide your portion to seven, or even to eight, for you do not know what misfortune may occur on the earth.
    Ben Graham - In the short run the market is a voting machine but in the long run the market is a weighing machine

  10. #8380
    Missed by that much
    Join Date
    Jan 2014
    Posts
    898

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by Roger View Post
    I see. That said it's right on the 100 day MA line and a line break to bring it back to the hounds bid price, ($1.47), will probably constitute a breech of the 100 day MA and were that sustained for 3 days that would be a technical sell for me.
    Hmmmmmmmmmmmmmmm. (Dog scratches head and decides its time for bed) Definitely something to reconsider, (my bid), tomorrow.
    Here is the ANZ chart with the 120 day MA. https://www.anzsecurities.co.nz/Dire...uperchart.aspx
    Personally I think you are safe with your $1.47 bid. I put in one the same when HBL announced their share placement, but it didn't get hit, and now I don't think it will get hit. On that basis I cancelled my bid today and instead decided to catch the IFT falling knife. Hopefully I did catch it by the handle and not the blade.

Tags for this Thread

Bookmarks

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •