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  1. #12871
    Senior Member King1212's Avatar
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    What!!!!sell...sell...sell..... anyway that was 2019...now is 2020..lol

  2. #12872
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    YES off course I forgot last year ............now

  3. #12873
    ShareTrader Legend Beagle's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by dreamcatcher View Post
    Not that rosy .............NZ dairy farm sales plummet, prices weaken, despite firm outlook

    https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/...ectid=12295844
    The other Beagle will go into warp drive with the yapping when he reads that...YAWN, where's my ear muffs...
    No butts, hold no mutts, (unless they're the furry variety).

  4. #12874
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    Quote Originally Posted by Beagle View Post
    The other Beagle will go into warp drive with the yapping when he reads that...YAWN, where's my ear muffs...
    I am not bringing up the plunging price of dairy farms in an attempt to start a run on Heartland shares. I am trying to show that this, combined with the Heartland Australia funding mismatch, poor cashflow (inherent in a growing Reverse Mortgage business) and the late business cycle's likely effect on second tier lenders are all reasons why Heartland should not trade a a premium to other banks. The big banks have their own problems, different to that of Heartland Bank. I think the whole sector should trade at a discount to the market - no exceptions!

    SNOOPY
    Last edited by Snoopy; 08-01-2020 at 09:23 PM.
    Industry shorthand sees BNZ employees still called 'bankers' but ANZ employees now called 'anchors'. Westpac has opted out of banking industry shorthand...

  5. #12875
    ShareTrader Legend Beagle's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Snoopy View Post
    I am not bringing up the plunging price of dairy farms in an attempt to start a run on Heartland shares. I am trying to show that this, combined with the Heartland Australia funding mismatch, poor cashflow (inherent in a growing Reverse Mortgage business) and the late business cycle's likely effect on second tier lenders are all reasons why Heartland should not trade a a premium to other banks. The big banks have their own problems, different to that of Heartland Bank. I think the whole sector should trade at a discount to the market - no exceptions!

    SNOOPY
    It already is Snoopy and always does. Forward PE of HGH is about 13.5 compared to the median for the market of 19 and average by market cap of about 30. That's plenty enough of a discount in my opinion.

    If you want something new to worry about, start right here https://www.msn.com/en-nz/news/world...cid=spartandhp
    Last edited by Beagle; 08-01-2020 at 09:31 PM.
    No butts, hold no mutts, (unless they're the furry variety).

  6. #12876
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    Quote Originally Posted by Beagle View Post
    BEN 13.0
    ANZ 11.5
    WBC 13.5
    NAB 12.0
    CBA 14.2
    BOQ 13.3
    HGH 13.6

    I am sure we're all well aware of the issues the Australians banks have with under capitalisation and other serious issues as a result of the Australian banking enquiry.

    HGH looks well priced to me compared to its peers, most of which have serious issues.
    Quote Originally Posted by Beagle View Post
    Forward PE of HGH is about 13.5 compared to the median for the market of 19 and average by market cap of about 30. That's plenty enough of a discount in my opinion.
    We are getting close to dancing on the head of a pin Beagle. I think we both agree that there is a least one opportunity to invest in the finance sector in today's market. We have both bought into HGH this year. Whether one should continue to accumulate at a PE of 12 (HGH at $1.64) or a PE of 13.5 (HGH at $1.85) comes down to what yield you would see as acceptable to offset the inherent risk of the investment.

    Given your raw PE figures for all Australasian banks, I would be inclined to accumulate ANZ and reduce HGH. Of course the problems at ANZ dwarf any problems at Heartland in dollar terms. But in proportion to the size of the bank I think the potential problems at Heartland are at least a match for those at ANZ. I don't see Heartland as any less risky than the other banks and I think it should be trading on a PE of 12. That is a fairly minor variation on your position in the big picture of things.

    SNOOPY
    Industry shorthand sees BNZ employees still called 'bankers' but ANZ employees now called 'anchors'. Westpac has opted out of banking industry shorthand...

  7. #12877
    Alley Cat Brain's Avatar
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    The two beagles are almost in agreement. It is now time to send you to the Middle East and see what you can do there.

  8. #12878
    ShareTrader Legend Beagle's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Brain View Post
    The two beagles are almost in agreement. It is now time to send you to the Middle East and see what you can do there.


    Snoopy - I investing in HGH primarily for yield and growth in yield in the years ahead. Its the only bank here that pays fully imputed dividends and I believe they will continue to do so for the foreseeable future.

    Quite apart from the massive issues yet to be resolved with Australian banks https://www.marketscreener.com/news/...nks--29752485/
    including their substantial undercapitalisation of New Zealand operations, none of them provide meaningful imputation credits which means you're on the back foot (paws ) in regard to yield right from the get-go.

    I'm comfortable with 7.5% gross yield in this ultra low interest rate environment which assumes no increase in the dividend for FY20 and I'm also comfortable with a PE of 13.5
    Its difficult to find better value on the NZX than HGH at present.

    In terms of the difference in PE's between HGH and ANZ its probably worth noting that according to average forecasts of analysts on market screener they are forecasting average growth in eps for HGH over the next 3 years of ~ 5% per annum and for ANZ ~ 4% per annum.
    Last edited by Beagle; 09-01-2020 at 08:50 AM.
    No butts, hold no mutts, (unless they're the furry variety).

  9. #12879
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    Quote Originally Posted by Brain View Post
    The two beagles are almost in agreement. It is now time to send you to the Middle East and see what you can do there.
    Unleash the dogs of peace!

  10. #12880
    percy
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    Quote Originally Posted by Snoopy View Post
    We are getting close to dancing on the head of a pin Beagle. I think we both agree that there is a least one opportunity to invest in the finance sector in today's market. We have both bought into HGH this year. Whether one should continue to accumulate at a PE of 12 (HGH at $1.64) or a PE of 13.5 (HGH at $1.85) comes down to what yield you would see as acceptable to offset the inherent risk of the investment.

    Given your raw PE figures for all Australasian banks, I would be inclined to accumulate ANZ and reduce HGH. Of course the problems at ANZ dwarf any problems at Heartland in dollar terms. But in proportion to the size of the bank I think the potential problems at Heartland are at least a match for those at ANZ. I don't see Heartland as any less risky than the other banks and I think it should be trading on a PE of 12. That is a fairly minor variation on your position in the big picture of things.

    SNOOPY
    Interesting looking at charts. "A picture is worth a thousand words" , [or three thousand of Snoopy's..lol.]
    ANZ,WBC,and NAB are in strong down trends.
    CBA is tracking sideways.
    However HGH is in a very strong up trend.

  11. #12881
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    Quote Originally Posted by Bjauck View Post
    Unleash the dogs of peace!
    Can't resist posting this which my step-daughter just sent me.. Apologies for the thread diversion but it seems appropriate on a day like this.
    WHY DOGS LIVE LESS THAN HUMAN
    Here's the surprising answer of a 6 year old child.
    Being a veterinarian, I had been called to examine a ten-year-old Irish Wolfhound named Belker. The dog’s owners, Ron, his wife Lisa, and their little boy Shane, were all very attached to Belker, and they were hoping for a miracle.
    I examined Belker and found he was dying of cancer. I told the family we couldn’t do anything for Belker, and offered to perform the euthanasia procedure for the old dog in their home.
    As we made arrangements, Ron and Lisa told me they thought it would be good for six-year-old Shane to observe the procedure. They felt as though Shane might learn something from the experience.
    The next day, I felt the familiar catch in my throat as Belker‘s family surrounded him. Shane seemed so calm, petting the old dog for the last time, that I wondered if he understood what was going on. Within a few minutes, Belker slipped peacefully away.
    The little boy seemed to accept Belker’s transition without any difficulty or confusion. We sat together for a while after Belker’s Death, wondering aloud about the sad fact that dogs' lives are shorter than human lives. Shane, who had been listening quietly, piped up, ”I know why.”
    Startled, we all turned to him. What came out of his mouth next stunned me. I’d never heard a more comforting explanation. It has changed the way I try and live.
    He said, ”People are born so that they can learn how to live a good life — like loving everybody all the time and being nice, right?” The six-year-old continued,
    ”Well, dogs already know how to do that, so they don’t have to stay for as long as we do.”
    Live simply.
    Love generously.
    Care deeply.
    Speak kindly.
    Remember, if a dog was the teacher you would learn things like:
    • When your loved ones come home, always run to greet them.
    • Never pass up the opportunity to go for a joyride.
    • Allow the experience of fresh air and the wind in your face to be pure Ecstasy.
    • Take naps.
    • Stretch before rising.
    • Run, romp, and play daily.
    • Thrive on attention and let people touch you.
    • Avoid biting when a simple growl will do.
    • On warm days, stop to lie on your back on the grass.
    • On hot days, drink lots of water and lie under a shady tree.
    • When you’re happy, dance around and wag your entire body.
    • Delight in the simple joy of a long walk.
    • Be faithful.
    • Never pretend to be something you’re not.
    • If what you want lies buried, dig until you find it.
    • When someone is having a bad day, be silent, sit close by, and nuzzle them gently.
    That's the secret of happiness that we can learn from a good dog.
    Maybe something for the Iranians and American's to think about...

    We lost two dogs last year and none left at present so it was rather poignant for me.

    Good point about the downtrend and uptrend Percy...it's always easier to swim with the tide than against it !
    Last edited by Beagle; 09-01-2020 at 09:33 AM.
    No butts, hold no mutts, (unless they're the furry variety).

  12. #12882
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    I have never heard of this company. Competition?
    https://www.lifetimeincome.co.nz/
    https://www.goodreturns.co.nz/nz-income.html

  13. #12883
    percy
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    No.
    Very different product.
    This one you buy an annuity.ie pay the issuer say $500,000 to invest and draw down a weekly/fortnightly amount.Westpac also [[use to?]do them.Do not know whether other banks do so.
    Reverse Equity Loans,ie HGH's product you use your equity in your house to draw down lump sums or weekly/fortnightly/monthly amounts.It is for people who do not have the spare capital to buy an annuity, as all their capital is tied up in their house.Means they can live in their house and have an income.
    Both are based on capital invested,or house value,drawings,and your age.
    Last edited by percy; 15-01-2020 at 07:35 AM.

  14. #12884
    An Awesome Cool Cat winner69's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by kiora View Post
    Been around a while — hasn’t hurt Heartland in that time eh

    With Dr Cullen in charge what could go wrong
    “Just consider that maybe the probability of you being wrong is higher than you think.”

  15. #12885
    ShareTrader Legend Beagle's Avatar
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    https://www.msn.com/en-nz/money/news...cid=spartandhp

    Looking pretty good isn't it Snoopy With pretty looking cows like that one, what could possibly go wrong
    No butts, hold no mutts, (unless they're the furry variety).

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