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  1. #8601
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    Quote Originally Posted by winner69 View Post
    So Value of HBL Share = (8.5 cents) / (10% - 13%)

    = 0.085 / -0.03

    = - $2.83 according to my Samsung

    = don't make sense


    Or if we moderate the 13% growth rate to a modest 9% and still use the 10% discount rate the answer is $8.50 - YIPPEE
    Hang on you have to make some SD adjustments to make it work. See ANZ thread.
    h2

  2. #8602
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    Quote Originally Posted by winner69 View Post
    So Value of HBL Share = (8.5 cents) / (10% - 13%)

    = 0.085 / -0.03

    = - $2.83 according to my Samsung

    = don't make sense


    Or if we moderate the 13% growth rate to a modest 9% and still use the 10% discount rate the answer is $8.50 - YIPPEE
    Looking at the 'investorwords' example, in all cases the growth in the company's dividends is less than the company's cost of equity capital. So your overoptimistic inputs Winner, with a discount rate less than the divdend growth rate, are apparently, not allowed.

    SNOOPY
    Last edited by Snoopy; 10-02-2017 at 04:14 PM.
    Watch out for the most persistent and dangerous version of Covid-19: B.S.24/7

  3. #8603
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    Quote Originally Posted by Snoopy View Post
    Looking at the 'investorwords' example, in all cases the growth in the company's dividends is less than the company's cost of equity capital. So your overoptimistic inputs Winner, with a discount rate less than the divdend growth rate, are apparently, not allowed.

    SNOOPY
    So the model is nonsense then

    Working backwards from a 155 share price and using my 13% growth rate the implied discount rate is 18.5%

    Hmmm
    “ At the top of every bubble, everyone is convinced it's not yet a bubble.”

  4. #8604
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    Quote Originally Posted by winner69 View Post
    So the model is nonsense then

    Working backwards from a 155 share price and using my 13% growth rate the implied discount rate is 18.5%

    Hmmm
    Yes but we haven't seen the all important SD adjustments.
    Last edited by h2so4; 10-02-2017 at 04:32 PM.
    h2

  5. #8605
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    Snoopy I am sure it will not surprise you that I think they can grow dividends in line with EPS growth. Consensus analyst forecast on 4traders is for meaningful growth in EPS for the next 3 years and I am happy with their figures.

    May I suggest you rework the dividend valuation model using average brokers consensus EPS growth figures for the next 3 years.
    Ecclesiastes 11:2: “Divide your portion to seven, or even to eight, for you do not know what misfortune may occur on the earth.
    Ben Graham - In the short run the market is a voting machine but in the long run the market is a weighing machine

  6. #8606
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    Red face I will bite

    Quote Originally Posted by h2so4 View Post
    Yes but we haven't seen the all important SD adjustments.
    What is SD ?

    Best Wishes
    Paper Tiger
    om mani peme hum

  7. #8607
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    snoopy hound dog
    h2

  8. #8608
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    1/ Adjust growth to zero.
    h2

  9. #8609
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    Quote Originally Posted by h2so4 View Post
    1/ Adjust growth to zero.
    LOL this hound feels like biting a chunk out of the other hound after reading that then the Tiger could give him a good clawing and send him back to his kennel in disgrace
    Honestly to suggest this company can't grow dividends going forward is in my opinion a seriously flawed viewpoint. Far more likely that housing will continue to maintain close to its real current value and UDC will continue to do what its always done. Doomsday thinking way overdone Snooper.
    Last edited by Beagle; 10-02-2017 at 05:01 PM.
    Ecclesiastes 11:2: “Divide your portion to seven, or even to eight, for you do not know what misfortune may occur on the earth.
    Ben Graham - In the short run the market is a voting machine but in the long run the market is a weighing machine

  10. #8610
    Reincarnated Panthera Snow Leopard's Avatar
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    Thumbs down Foiled again

    For some reason whilst reading this Snoopy post I was reminded of this mildly enjoyable song:



    Stay till the end.

    Best Wishes
    Paper Tiger
    om mani peme hum

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