sharetrader
Page 866 of 1722 FirstFirst ... 3667668168568628638648658668678688698708769169661366 ... LastLast
Results 8,651 to 8,660 of 17213
  1. #8651
    On the doghouse
    Join Date
    Jun 2004
    Location
    , , New Zealand.
    Posts
    9,223

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by horus1 View Post
    bought them all the way up and will keep buying .They do what they say and do not overhype. Love them and have alot
    Nothing wrong with falling in love. Might not be so wise to fall in love with a share though.

    SNOOPY
    Watch out for the most persistent and dangerous version of Covid-19: B.S.24/7

  2. #8652
    On the doghouse
    Join Date
    Jun 2004
    Location
    , , New Zealand.
    Posts
    9,223

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by percy View Post
    Wrong as always on this thread.
    According to our friends at Yahoo finance.Share prices
    ..................1 year....................2 year...................5 year.
    ANZ...........29.85%.............minus 15.96%............36.84%
    HBL............39.29%...................12.23%.... ...........231.91.
    You keep your under performer,and I will keep my high achiever..
    So $10,000 miss placed in ANZ 5 years ago would be worth $13,684.00
    Same amount invested in HBL would be worth $23,191.00.
    I meant ANZ looks the better investment from today. Never said the same five years ago. Not much point in investing looking backwards from what I can see.

    I notice you left out dividends (yet again). Of course it doesn't matter from a Heartland perspective, because more capital has been poured into that business structure than has come out as dividends over the last five years.

    SNOOPY
    Watch out for the most persistent and dangerous version of Covid-19: B.S.24/7

  3. #8653
    percy
    Join Date
    Oct 2009
    Location
    christchurch
    Posts
    17,222

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by Snoopy View Post
    I meant ANZ looks the better investment from today. Never said the same five years ago. Not much point in investing looking backwards from what I can see.

    I notice you left out dividends (yet again). Of course it doesn't matter from a Heartland perspective, because more capital has been poured into that business structure than has come out as dividends over the last five years.

    SNOOPY
    Dividends.
    My post # 425 on ANZ thread.
    Dividend growth since 2014.
    ANZ....Minus 4.5%..............
    HBL.......Up....71.66%.
    EPS growth,ROE growth,dividend growth means HBL has had outstanding share price growth,which you have missed.
    Strong organic growth has seen HBL use up their excess capital.New capital will see further growth,while ANZ has had to sell of bits to shore up their balance sheet,which means they have little or no eps growth,so there certainly will be no increased dividends.

  4. #8654
    Speedy Az winner69's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jun 2001
    Location
    , , .
    Posts
    37,739

    Default

    I reckon H1 profit will be $28.8m (they did do $14.2m in the first quarter) ..... and Jeff will say FY will be at top end of previous guidance

    FY really should be over $60m but they'll manage to keep it to that $60m plus or minus a fraction - remember they always deliver on want they said they will do. Wouldn't want to go overboard would they
    Last edited by winner69; 12-02-2017 at 07:05 PM.
    “ At the top of every bubble, everyone is convinced it's not yet a bubble.”

  5. #8655
    On the doghouse
    Join Date
    Jun 2004
    Location
    , , New Zealand.
    Posts
    9,223

    Default Dividend Capitalisation Valuation

    Quote Originally Posted by Snoopy View Post
    9.8c / $1.56 = 6.25% ?
    Quote Originally Posted by Xerof View Post
    Snoop dog, I was merely extracting the urine. I fudged my numbers to equate to Fridays closing price.
    I thought as much. But what you did:

    1/ Find a yield you are happy with.
    2/ Multiply (1) by a gross dividend in cents that you choose

    to obtain

    3/ The share price

    is a legitimate way to use the Dividend Capitalisation Valuation method. The yield that you choose is a judgement call. The dividend you use could be historical, forecast or some kind of multi-year average. So the dividend is a judgement call as well. And that means the whole valuation method is a judgement call. But there is nothing wrong with that, provided you sincerely believe that your own judgements are representative.

    SNOOPY
    Last edited by Snoopy; 15-02-2017 at 01:33 PM.
    Watch out for the most persistent and dangerous version of Covid-19: B.S.24/7

  6. #8656
    On the doghouse
    Join Date
    Jun 2004
    Location
    , , New Zealand.
    Posts
    9,223

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by Snoopy View Post
    Plugging in a representative yield, one that represents the ups and downs of the banking cycle of Heartland in its current form, we can now arrive at our 'Capitalised Dividend Model' valuation

    (Representative Dividend per Share) / (Acceptable Yield) = Share Price (an algebraeic manipulation of: Dividend per Share / Share Price = Yield )

    7.66c / 0.72 x 0.075 = $1.42

    A reminder here that NTA was 91cps at balance date. This means my fair valuation is at a good premium to asset value, a credit to management from the rag tag of assets that they started with.

    This $1.42 valuation is measured at the average point in the business cycle. One might argue that we are now riding high in the business cycle and that this $1.42 valuation is consequently too low given today's circumstances. I wouldn't argue with that. But, ever the bargain hound, neither would I look at buying any shares myself until that share price drifts down to that $1.42 level. Don't say that Snoopy didn't warn you!
    Quote Originally Posted by Snoopy View Post

    I should add to the above that Snoopy always likes to buy below fair value. For a bond like asset I look for a discount of 20%. So I would be looking to pick up HBL shares in the early $1.20s.

    discl: do not hold HBL
    I have a bit more to say about my $1.42 valuation. This will be obvious if you understand what 'business cycle average' means. But time to state the obvious.

    Assuming my valuation is correct, the chances of Heartland trading at that value on any particular day is very small. If $1.42 is the average, then about half the time the share should be trading above that average and half the time the share should be trading below that average (as a general rule of thumb). Whether it trades above or below depends, where potential shareholders see Heartland going in the next couple of years in relation to the business cycle. A business cycle is not something with a smooth upward and downward progression. So it is not unusual to have lumpy share price movements over time that reflect this.

    Just because I wouldn't buy Heartland today at $1.55, that doesn' t mean that I would sell it if I already owned it. For a start, Heartland is a good dividend payer. Sticking Heartland money in a 2% cash account is not a great alternative strategy. And although I regard Heartland as overvalued at present, it is not noticibly more overvalued than the rest of the market. My strategy, if I held Heartland, would be to keep holding. It would only be if the overvaluation became excessive that I would consider selling down. I would add on the upcoming dividend (3.5cps it was last year) to the fair value share price ($1.42 + 20%) and look at lightening my holding if Heartland became 20% overvalued from that figure.

    That corresponds to a price of ($1.42 x 1.2) + $0.035 = $1.74

    That's the figure I would be selling down from.

    SNOOPY
    Last edited by Snoopy; 15-02-2017 at 02:39 PM. Reason: Change $1.585 (adj market value) to $1.42 (fair value) + div
    Watch out for the most persistent and dangerous version of Covid-19: B.S.24/7

  7. #8657
    The Wolf of Sharetrader
    Join Date
    Jul 2013
    Location
    On my Superyacht
    Posts
    1,240

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by Snoopy View Post

    That corresponds to a price of $1.58.5 x 1.2 = $1.90

    That's the figure...

    SNOOPY
    You're finally starting to see the light Snoopy. Well done.

  8. #8658
    Reincarnated Panthera Snow Leopard's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jul 2004
    Location
    Private Universe
    Posts
    5,853

    Thumbs up Hitting the Moving Target

    Definitely makes sense having a sell price 20% higher than whatever the current share price is.

    Though I would not complicate it by adding in the theoretical next dividend.

    Best Wishes
    Paper Tiger
    om mani peme hum

  9. #8659
    ShareTrader Legend Beagle's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jul 2010
    Location
    Auckland
    Posts
    21,362

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by Snoopy View Post
    I have a bit more to say about my $1.42 valuation. This will be obvious if you understand what 'business cycle average' means. But time to state the obvious.

    Assuming my valuation is correct, the chances of Heartland trading at that value on any particular day is very small. If $1.42 is the average, then about half the time the share should be trading above that average and half the time the share should be trading below that average (as a general rule of thumb). Whether it trades above or below depends, where potential shareholders see Heartland going in the next couple of years in relation to the business cycle. A business cycle is not something with a smooth upward and downward progression. So it is not unusual to have lumpy share price movements over time that reflect this.

    Just because I woudln't buy Heartland today $1.55, that doesn' t mean that I woudl sell it if I already owned it. For a start Heartland is a good dividend payer. Sticking Heartland money in a 2% cash account is not a great alternative strategy. And although I regard Heartland as overvalued at present, it is not noticibly more overvalued than the rest of the market. My strategy, if I held Heartland, would be to keep holding. It would only be if the overvaluation became excessive that I would consider selling down. I would add on the upcoming dividend (3.5cps it was last year) to the fair value share price ($1.42 + $0.035 = $1.45.5) and look at lightening my holding if Heartland became 20% overvalued from that figure.

    That corresponds to a price of $1.45.5 x 1.2 = $1.75

    That's the figure I would be selling down from.

    SNOOPY
    We're almost barking off the same hymn sheet. I think they're fair value at present and the divvy yield plus growth in dividend in line with growth in EPS makes them a good hold.
    Ecclesiastes 11:2: “Divide your portion to seven, or even to eight, for you do not know what misfortune may occur on the earth.
    Ben Graham - In the short run the market is a voting machine but in the long run the market is a weighing machine

  10. #8660
    On the doghouse
    Join Date
    Jun 2004
    Location
    , , New Zealand.
    Posts
    9,223

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by Paper Tiger View Post
    Definitely makes sense having a sell price 20% higher than whatever the current share price is.

    Though I would not complicate it by adding in the theoretical next dividend.

    Best Wishes
    Paper Tiger
    Sorry should have used the 'fair value share price' as a bas, not the current share price! Have corrected my post (sell down price now $1.74).

    SNOOPY
    Last edited by Snoopy; 15-02-2017 at 02:38 PM.
    Watch out for the most persistent and dangerous version of Covid-19: B.S.24/7

Tags for this Thread

Bookmarks

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •