HGH - Heartland Group Holdings

[winner69]

roger from above -

.......so HBL could be said to be worth as much as nearly $2.50 fully accounting for its substantially superior historical and projected growth rates compared to its peers !

Jeez Roger - Heartland worth $2.50 - why didn't you point that out before I got sucked into punting on Push

Going from $1.50 to $2,50 for Heartland is about as good as going from $2.00 to $3.50 for push ........esp as one is likely to happen and one is looking very unlikely.

[winner69]

I see you didn't have HBL as one of your picks in the 2017 share trader competition either. How are your alternative picks going for you in this year's competition PT ?

Many haven't included HBL in Stocktastic - even some of Heartlands greatest cheerleaders on this thread .....so it doesn't really mean much

[iceman]

Jeez Roger - Heartland worth $2.50 - why didn't you point that out before I got sucked into punting on Push

Going from $1.50 to $2,50 for Heartland is about as good as going from $2.00 to $3.50 for push ........esp as one is likely to happen and one is looking very unlikely.

Which is which winner ??? Need to know as I have significant holdings in both !

[Baa_Baa]

Many haven't included HBL in Stocktastic - even some of Heartlands greatest cheerleaders on this thread .....so it doesn't really mean much

HBL was the 2nd highest ranked 2017 stock pick!

Stock	# Picks	% Picked	Rank
THL	54	25%	1
HBL	51	23%	2

[Joshuatree]

Very interesting reading, it's like Nov-Dec 2014 all over again when the rampers fired into overdrive and the lemmings piled into HBL, but the lemmings didn't hear about rampers' sell-downs until a few months after they exited.

What followed was an extended period of down-ramping, justified by all sorts of reasoning which is now pronounced as defunct, but could only have left the lemmings who held wondering about their circumstances, many of whom will have sold.

I know the behoved don't intend to ramp the SP per se, but we have seen before that the buying announcements and their excitement is forecast inline with, or in front of, the SP rises. Because the lemmings lap it up.

Yet as soon as the SP weakness emerges, which it inevitably does, the same rampers are gone-burger, in a heartbeat, but their exit is not announced until the ramper is well gone and the hapless lemmings are left holding wondering WTF happened and when will it recover.

So far that hasn't mattered too much as the lemmings who held have made their money back, but the rampers and subsequent down-rampers have made a lot more.

Those with the insights and the expertise to assess and trade the market are to be admired and considered, but taking their advice based on what and more importantly when they post, is folly.

DYOR.
BAA

Thanks for that BAA; folly indeed.There are always those that seek to deceive and enrich themselves at others expense; again and again; thankfully only a few on here; but they are everywhere where the scent of $$ is.You can never be really sure re anyones motive and whether its altruistic or speaking with forked tongues.
A good reminder.

[Beagle]

Jeez Roger - Heartland worth $2.50 - why didn't you point that out before I got sucked into punting on Push

Going from $1.50 to $2,50 for Heartland is about as good as going from $2.00 to $3.50 for push ........esp as one is likely to happen and one is looking very unlikely.

Not so sure Ben Graham's approach is the right one these days but the comparative PE analysis is sound as far as I am concerned so I am more than happy with my work yesterday to validate its value based on hard evidence (a fair value of $1.73 - $1.76) Not sure how others are coming up with their values as for some strange reason they don't want to say...maybe they're relying on analysts fair value, (about $1.58) who got it "so right" last year with their 12 month price target of $1.30 didn't they ! We might have to push that Push target out to next year mate, it'll get there though

Many haven't included HBL in Stocktastic - even some of Heartlands greatest cheerleaders on this thread .....so it doesn't really mean much

I didn't either but I did put my cheerleaders outfit, (special $2.50 valuation) on especially for you yesterday

[ziggy415]

Geez Roger, wasn't snoopy,s sell down price 1.74.....amazing how instep you two are

[Arbroath]

Not so sure Ben Graham's approach is the right one these days but the comparative PE analysis is sound as far as I am concerned so I am more than happy with my work yesterday to validate its value based on hard evidence (a fair value of $1.73 - $1.76) Not sure how others are coming up with their values as for some strange reason they don't want to say...maybe they're relying on analysts fair value, (about $1.58) who got it "so right" last year with their 12 month price target of $1.30 didn't they ! We might have to push that Push target out to next year mate, it'll get there though

I didn't either but I did put my cheerleaders outfit, (special $2.50 valuation) on especially for you yesterday

I think the equation for Heartland is fairly simple as it is a financial (bank) stock. Currently it is trading at 1.7x book value and there have been many good points made about why its multiple has expanded as it tidied up its legacy loan book and has created a much more solid business. That is why its gone from $0.50-60 to $1.60+ over the past 3-4 years. However, for me 1.8-2.0x book is the maximum value for a business like this risk adjusted across the cycle (Heartland has not been tested on a new down cycle yet) so that giv es a maximum value for me of $1.70-1.89 based on current book value so quite similar to the values you've been getting Roger. Obviously if they can keep executing well and if the economic cycle is prolonged the share price can run further but I will likely sell out between $1.70-1.80 due to valuation. I say this in the full knowledge that my holding will not move the market (60k). No agenda's from me - just a disciplined approach to valuation accepting that at the higher end of the cycle I will likely leave some $$ on the table for others and good luck to them.

[winner69]

roger earlier

Not so sure Ben Graham's approach is the right one ....

Thing with Ben's formula is that if a stock trades at Intrinsic Value it's PEG > 2 and some investors don't like PEGs that high (overvalued they say)

Think Ben did his sums when market was mainly old fashioned industrials where 5% growth was pretty good

[Snoopy]

Not so sure Ben Graham's approach is the right one these days but the comparative PE analysis is sound as far as I am concerned

I think the equation for Heartland is fairly simple as it is a financial (bank) stock.

When I look for comparatives, one of the first things I apply is the 'duck test'. Put succinctly, for identification purposes, , if it looks like a duck and quacks like a duck, the chances are it is a duck. When I apply the 'duck test' to Heartland 'Bank' something interesting happens.

Q1/ Can you go into a Heartland bank branch and deposit a bundle of cash?
A1/ No

Q2/ Can you go into a Heartland bank branch and withdarw a bundle of cash?
A2/ No

Q3/ Can you go into a Heartland bank branch and obtain some overseas currency for your overseas trip?
A3/ No

Q4/ Can you go into a Heartland bank and get a proper mortgage (not one of those reverse ones)?
A4/ No

My conclusion: Heartland Bank fails the 'duck test' in comparison with the other banks that Roger used as comparatives.

I guess the killer philosophical question on my mind is this:

"If a striped suited 'Beagle Boy' goes into a Heartland Bank and commands the staff to put all of the till proceeds in his swag bag, then the said Beagle Boy leaves with a limp empty sack (because Heartland don't deal with cash anymore), can he be arrested for bank robbery?"

SNOOPY