I've been pondering how HBL have gone up so much in SP over the last year and above my target price of $1.65. Their original forcast of 57 - 60 million has not changed significantly and things have seemed to be business as usual. The NZ economy is strong but I'm wondering what has justified such a sharp increase in HBL SP past $1.50 or so especially. Is it just that the market hadn't previously considered HBL but now are starting to believe it's growth story?
Risk has dissipated to a material extent with the advent of the dairy recovery and that along with reasonable GDP growth and the possibility of EPS accretive acquisitions has driven the stock to where it is today. Fair value and a good hold in my opinion. Can't let this opportunity pass without mentioning that shareholders are well positioned
Ecclesiastes 11:2: “Divide your portion to seven, or even to eight, for you do not know what misfortune may occur on the earth.”
Ben Graham - In the short run the market is a voting machine but in the long run the market is a weighing machine
The last HBL presentation I went to was on 31st May, where Greenslade and Flood were very confident the result to 31st June would continue their record of beating brokers' forecasts.
Well now we are past the year's end, and will have to wait for the result announcement to find out whether HBL are at the top end of their forecast,or above up.
I see June new motor vehicle registrations were an all time record,so NZ Ltd remains in good shape.At Greymouth Top 10 last night there were 10 Maui/Britz camper vans.So Tourism is in good shape too. NZ Ltd outlook remains positive.
The solid ground work Heartland Bank laid,is now producing very real organic growth.The momentum is there,so we have every right to look forward to the coming year with confidence.
All Heartland Bank's niche sectors are growing.
We therefore remain "well positioned.".........lol.
I've been pondering how HBL have gone up so much in SP over the last year and above my target price of $1.65. Their original forcast of 57 - 60 million has not changed significantly and things have seemed to be business as usual. The NZ economy is strong but I'm wondering what has justified such a sharp increase in HBL SP past $1.50 or so especially. Is it just that the market hadn't previously considered HBL but now are starting to believe it's growth story?
You answered your own question jeremy - the market is believing its growth story.
As you know there are two components to the market price - company performance and multiples (snetiment / what punters are prepared for that performance)
Comparing HBL share price to its book value is a great example. Two to three years ago in June 15 HBL was trading between 1.1 and 1.3 book value .... and now it is trading at over 1.6 time book value (in spite of paying out quite a large percentage of earnings as dividends and issuing quite a lot of new shares). See the chart below
A big rerating / change in sentiment eh ......that is the market believing the Heartland story
The market obviously believes the story more than you do when you came up with your $1.65. ou haven't misjudged Heartlands performance it's just the market and you have different views.
Soon it's going to be $2.00 plus I'm told - good eh
“ At the top of every bubble, everyone is convinced it's not yet a bubble.”
Ok so which is it W69 ?.Was that a throw away line and who told you and do you believe this person? You could have said anything, agreed.Thats w69 for ya
Ok so which is it W69 ?.Was that a throw away line and who told you and do you believe this person? You could have said anything, agreed.Thats w69 for ya
You asked, I'll take the bait and answer,
Read it on Sharetrader. Been said a few times. I'm sure that even Percy was amongst them and of course I respect everything he says.
Asking inane questions, that's jt for ya
Last edited by winner69; 05-07-2017 at 12:12 AM.
“ At the top of every bubble, everyone is convinced it's not yet a bubble.”
You answered your own question jeremy - the market is believing its growth story.
As you know there are two components to the market price - company performance and multiples (snetiment / what punters are prepared for that performance)
Comparing HBL share price to its book value is a great example. Two to three years ago in June 15 HBL was trading between 1.1 and 1.3 book value .... and now it is trading at over 1.6 time book value (in spite of paying out quite a large percentage of earnings as dividends and issuing quite a lot of new shares). See the chart below
A big rerating / change in sentiment eh ......that is the market believing the Heartland story
The market obviously believes the story more than you do when you came up with your $1.65. ou haven't misjudged Heartlands performance it's just the market and you have different views.
Soon it's going to be $2.00 plus I'm told - good eh
Yes very soon.....
A while back I posted the date and time HBL would hit $2.00.
I have no reason to alter that post.[even if I could find it] ,lol..
Originally Posted by JeremyALD
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