HGH - Heartland Group Holdings

[Baa_Baa]

$1.80 got cleaned out today...for what its worth I helped in that process. That's what happens when a silly dog talks himself into buying more as per post #9536.
PE seems very reasonable for the steady growth of HBL.

Do you wonder why you sold thereabouts 1.30 if I recall correctly then missed the divis and the .50 cap upside? Summer 2014/15 was a ramping doozy, then the diary crisis a down ramping doozy, that wasn't sustained. We need to be careful of the devil on one shoulder while the angel on the other is saying something else but we've stopped listening to the bright side.

[Beagle]

Do you wonder why you sold thereabouts 1.30 if I recall correctly then missed the divis and the .50 cap upside? Summer 2014/15 was a ramping doozy, then the diary crisis a down ramping doozy, that wasn't sustained. We need to be careful of the devil on one shoulder while the angel on the other is saying something else but we've stopped listening to the bright side.

I sat out just over two years of the dairy crisis that was an extremely risky period of time for the N.Z. banking industry. The dairy collapse was a cancer that could have very seriously impacted the N.Z. banking sector. By taking a carefully measured approach to exposing myself to risk in this sector I missed just on only 15 cents in the rise from 85 cps when I first invested after the credit rating upgrade to the current price of $1.80. $1.32 - $1.47 was all I missed, yesterday's top up was just that. FYI I made more than the return I missed in this sector while invested in other sectors. Risk mitigation is an essential approach to any investment strategy in my opinion. Things could have gone terribly wrong for HBL and all other banks exposed to the dairy sector but thankfully they all dodged a bullet and we are now onward and upward again.
As posted above with a forward estimated PE in the mid 13's for FY18 taking into account the excellent fully imputed dividend yield, the forecast growth in EPS and dividends I think the forward PE on a risk adjusted basis, (yes pretty benign trading conditions now) is fair - good value.

[winner69]

Beagle - I think it's good that you can change your view as circumstances change. A good attribute you have even if the eyes of some it makes you appear to be a bit flighty but thats their problem I reckon

You might even see FBU as a good punt one day

[Beagle]

Beagle - I think it's good that you can change your view as circumstances change. A good attribute you have even if the eyes of some it makes you appear to be a bit flighty but thats their problem I reckon

You might even see FBU as a good punt one day

Thanks Winner I think one is sometimes best to take an adaptive and nimble approach, especially with stocks like PPH ! but please don't hold your breath on FBU

[Beagle]

New all time high of $1.82...Percy would you like to do the honours and complete this phrase that I "vaguely" remember. We are well .......... ?

[percy]

New all time high of $1.82...Percy would you like to do the honours and complete this phrase that I "vaguely" remember. We are well .......... ?

It may have been well....... "positioned" ,"poised" for another good result, which Peat would possibly comment, that "the fragance [of growth] is becoming stonger."
A lot of runs now on the board.

[Under Surveillance]

It may have been well....... "positioned" ,"poised" for another good result, which Peat would possibly comment, that "the fragance [of growth] is becoming stonger."
A lot of runs now on the board.

Spare a thought for Snoopy, who bagged HBL all the way down to 43. While some discern pleasant fragrances, he is probably still overwhelmed by foul odours.

[percy]

Spare a thought for Snoopy, who bagged HBL all the way down to 43. While some discern pleasant fragrances, he is probably still overwhelmed by foul odours.

While all the time praising ARI [asx] from 38 cents to .000000000.
Och..!

[Snoopy]

Spare a thought for Snoopy, who bagged HBL all the way down to 43. While some discern pleasant fragrances, he is probably still overwhelmed by foul odours.

While all the time praising ARI [asx] from 38 cents to .000000000.
Och..!

A hindsight view of history decouples the period risk factors from what was has happened to the share price since.

For those who have forgotten, there were serious problems with the 'non-core' (sic) property portfolio at the time Heartland was at 43c. It wasn't just management skill that got HBL out of their difficulties either. Sometimes when a company gets into trouble you bet and win. Other times you bet and lose (as happened to me with Arrium). At the time of any investment, the final result is not determined.

I am happy with the risk I took in upping my Arrium shareholding at the time, although I am obviously not happy with the hindsight result. No doubt many here are happy with the risk they took in investing in Heartland. Good on those who have done well in Heartland. We need risk taking investors as well as boring investors. But don't let the rise in share price from 43c to '$1.80 odd' blind anyone that the ride was not a little bumpy along the way. And don't think the share price going up on no news means your investment risk is getting lower, when in actual fact the contrary is true.

SNOOPY

[Snow Leopard]

A hindsight view of history decouples the period risk factors from what was has happened to the share price since.

For those who have forgotten, there were serious problems with the 'non-core' (sic) property portfolio at the time Heartland was at 43c. It wasn't just management skill that got HBL out of their difficulties either. Sometimes when a company gets into trouble you bet and win. Other times you bet and lose (as happened to me with Arrium). At the time of any investment, the final result is not determined.

I am happy with the risk I took in upping my Arrium shareholding at the time, although I am obviously not happy with the hindsight result. No doubt many here are happy with the risk they took in investing in Heartland. Good on those who have done well in Heartland. We need risk taking investors as well as boring investors. But don't let the rise in share price from 43c to '$1.80 odd' blind anyone that the ride was not a little bumpy along the way. And don't think the share price going up on no news means your investment risk is getting lower, when in actual fact the contrary is true.

SNOOPY

One does have to wonder at the current share price given the consensus earnings forecasts for the next few years.

Surely, one can say that, currently, it is fundamentally 'over-priced' using any sensible metrics.

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger